This article is part of our Survivor series.
The six most popular teams won last week, though if none of those was available, you might have been in trouble. If you survived, congratulations — it only gets harder from here.
In my pool, all survived. Of the original 451 entrants, nine remain (2.0 percent).
On to Week 16.
Before picking a Survivor team each week, be sure to consult our NFL injury report and the latest fantasy football news. Also check out the weekly projections to see how this week's matchups shape up.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
Odds from BetMGM. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEXANS | Raiders | 58.0% | 1100 | 91.7% | 4.83 |
| Bills | BROWNS | 15.1% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 2.47 |
| Eagles | COMMANDERS | 14.6% | 257.5 | 72.0% | 4.09 |
| SAINTS | Jets | 8.1% | 205 | 67.2% | 2.64 |
| 49ers | COLTS | 4.1% | 250 | 71.4% | 1.18 |
| Vikings | GIANTS | 4.0% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 1.67 |
| Chiefs | TITANS | 2.0% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.72 |
| LIONS | Steelers | 1.9% | 312.5 | 75.8% | 0.45 |
| Falcons | CARDINALS | 1.1% | 129 | 56.3% | 0.46 |
| Bengals | DOLPHINS | 0.6% | 129 | 56.3% | 0.27 |
| Buccaneers | PANTHERS | 0.4% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.15 |
| COWBOYS | Chargers | 0.4% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.17 |
| BRONCOS | Jaguars | 0.4% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.15 |
| BEARS | Packers | 0.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.17 |
| Patriots | RAVENS | 0.2% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.08 |
| Rams | SEAHAWKS | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.08 |
Home teams CAPITALIZED.
The Texans are the runaway popular choice this week, but their ownership percentage is still not high enough to offset their lofty odds as the week's biggest favorite (-14.5) to create a pot-odds situation, even compared to the next-closest team, the Bills. And even if it did, it probably wouldn't matter because in Week 16 the pot-odds pivot might not be available anyway. On top of that, ownership percentages could vary widely at this point, pool to pool.
Survey your competition to see which teams might be used this week. Fade whatever team you think will be most popular, assuming you have a quality alternative.
It's the Saints this week for us, as surprising as that would have seemed just a few weeks ago. But the top-4 teams below are unavailable, as is probably the case for most Survivors.
Also gameplan for the final two weeks. If, say, the Eagles are a consideration this week, perhaps holding off until Week 18 is the wise move, depending on which teams you have left. (But also consider that Week 18 could be meaningless for some teams.)
These look like the best options the next two weeks:
Week 17 - Cowboys (at Commanders), Jaguars (at Colts), Patriots (at Jets), Buccaneers (at Dolphins), Rams (at Falcons), Bengals (vs. Cardinals)
Week 18 - Bills (vs. Jets), Chiefs (at Raiders), Eagles (vs. Commanders), Rams (vs. Cardinals) , Packers (at Vikings), Jaguars (vs. Titans), Texans (vs. Colts)
Got a tough call? Let us know in the comments.
Picks are in order of preference.
Week 16 Survivor Picks
Houston Texans (vs. Raiders)
The Texans are playing their best ball of the season, as the offense is catching up to their dominant defense. The Raiders are coming off their second shutout loss of the season. (It's second time in franchise history they were shut out twice in a season — they suffered three shutouts in 2006.) Houston is at home and needs a win to keep pace in the AFC playoff race. The Texans have the Chargers and Colts left to play, so if they're available, this is the spot.
Buffalo Bills (at Browns)
After a middling midseason, the Bills have won three in a row, including a big victory against the Patriots last week. The Browns are just playing out the schedule at this point after getting trucked by the 49ers and Bears and upset by the Titans in their last three games. The Bills get the Jets in Week 18 but might have a wild card wrapped up by then.
Philadelphia Eagles (at Commanders)
Washington snapped an eight-game losing steak last week ... by beating the Giants. The Eagles snapped a three-game losing steak ... by beating the Raiders. In any event, the Eagles are the far better team and still have an outside shot at the NFC's No. 1 seed. A road division game isn't ideal, but this is the spot to use the Eagles. Week 18 against the Commanders could be a meaningless game for Philly.
San Francisco 49ers (at Colts)
This matchup is not as straightforward as it seems. Yes, Philip Rivers is old, but he gets rid of the ball so quickly, it's hard to get to him (Seattle sacked him once). He won't throw downfield much, but he can dink-and-dunk a defense to death. The reason the Colts nearly upset the Seahawks last week was defense, however. If they can control Christian McCaffrey, the Colts have a shot. Behind a fired-up crowd rooting for old man Rivers, Indy won't be a pushover on Monday night, especially if it gets Jonathan Taylor going. A week ago, this looked like a much better matchup for the 49ers. On the other hand, this is the place to use the 49ers because the next two weeks bring the Bears and Seahawks.
New Orleans Saints (vs. Jets)
The Saints have won back-to-back games, against ostensibly good teams, the Buccaneers and Panthers. The improving Tyler Shough completed 75 percent of his attempts last week with an 8.5 YPA, and the defense has held its last five opponents to less than 200 passing yards, going 3-2. The Jets have lost four of their last five, and undrafted rookie Brady Cook likely will be under center again this week. If the above teams are unavailable, the Saints look like a better-than-decent option. If they win and Houston loses, you'll might take down your pool.
Minnesota Vikings (at Giants)
The Vikings looked as good as they have all year in winning their last two games. J.J. McCarthy is playing better, though Justin Jefferson is still a non-factor. The Giants just hope to keep Jaxson Dart healthy at this point. The Vikings' defense shouldn't have much trouble shutting down a Giants offense devoid of playmakers. The game being in New York is perhaps a mark against Minnesota, but beggars can't be choosers at this point in the Survivor season.
Detroit Lions (vs. Steelers)
Despite their waxing of the Dolphins last week, the Steelers are as mediocre as it comes. The Lions are about as inconsistent as it comes. Alas, Detroit is probably more desperate at this point — it pretty much has to win out to make the playoffs. Lions at home with the Steelers on a short week is not a bad option. Plus, after alternating wins and losses since Week 5, Detroit is in line for a W this week.
Atlanta Falcons (at Cardinals)
This is for the truly desperate, but the Falcons look like a decent bet against a Cardinals team that was shellacked the last two weeks and has lost six in a row. Atlanta showed life in upsetting the Buccaneers last Thursday. Now it gets extra time to prepare for the Cardinals. Jacoby Brissett hasn't been bad for the Cardinals, but Arizona's defense has. That at least gives the Falcons a good shot.
