This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher", and sometimes "lower" picks, on Chalkboard.
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Higher
QB C.J. Stroud 
vs. ARI - higher than 1.5 pass TDs; 224.5 pass yards
RB Woody Marks vs. ARI - higher than 69.5 rush yards
WR Nico Collins vs. ARI - higher than 75.5 rec yards
WR Jayden Higgins vs. ARI - higher than 37.5 rec yards
The entire Texans offense is in a phenomenal spot. The Cardinals' defense is bad, and ever since Jacoby Brissett took over, their games have provided the best environment for fantasy points as they play fast and pass at the league's highest rate. We've seen them allow 40+ points to the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks three of the last five game.
Woody Marks is coming off a career-high 28 touches in last week's win over the Chiefs, as he barely came off the field. Nick Chubb (ribs) is in danger of sitting out, and if Marks sees that type of volume against the Cards, he should amass 100+ yards.
C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins have been back to their best and should be able to take advantage of this opportunity in a similar way that Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua did a week ago. Collins has put up at least 92 yards in four of the last five games. Impressive rookie Jayden Higgins has also emerged, drawing 5+ targets in five straight. He also possesses the big play ability to beat his yardage prop with one catch.
QB Jacoby Brissett 
at HOU - higher than 233.5 pass yards
WR Michael Wilson at HOU - higher than 4.5 receptions; 56.5 rec yards
The aforementioned Brissett has been one of the stories of this NFL season. He's now started eight games and thrown for at least 258 yards in all of them. His prop this week is the lowest we've seen because the matchup is about as tough as it gets against the Texans defense, arguably the top unit in the league. Brissett has also turned Michael Wilson into Puka Nacua, whenever Marvin Harrison has been out. In three such instances, Wilson has averaged a whopping 12 catches on 16 targets. Their numbers this week are considerably lower than otherwise due to the matchup, but they've been so good it might not matter.
TE Isaiah Likely 
at CIN - higher than 3.5 receptions; 34.5 rec yards
TE Mark Andrews at CIN - higher than 3.5 receptions; 37.5 rec yards
The Bengals defense has been historically bad at stopping opposing tight ends. Through 13 games, Cincinnati has given up 97 catches for 1,259 yards and 15 touchdowns to the position. Andrews and Likely will be licking their chops. Likely had five catches for 95 yards in the first meeting between these teams, and should've added a TD if not for fumbling on his way into the end zone.
QB Shedeur Sanders 
at CHI - higher than 0.5 pass TDs; 174.5 pass yards
WR Jerry Jeudy at CHI - higher than 36.5 rec yards
It's almost impossible for me not to go back to Sanders after I highlighted him in this article last week, and he responded by throwing for 364 yards and three scores against the hapless Titans defense. He looked good in the process, and the brash rookie is starting to turn critics into believers.
This week's matchup is tougher, but that means his projections are lower. It's going to be cold in Chicago, and the Bears have a decent defense. These are spots I like to target for up-and-coming QBs, when they're road underdogs with depressed props and multiple ways to get there. Jeudy is coming off his best game of the season, and I'd expect the connection between him and Sanders to get better with time.
RB Saquon Barkley 
vs. LV - higher than 84.5 rush yards; 0.5 TDs
It's hard to believe, but last week's 122-yard effort against the Chargers was only the second time this season Barkley has topped 100 rushing yards. Sunday's matchup at home against the Raiders is a prime opportunity for another. The Eagles are big favorites against a bad offense that isn't likely to keep pace. It should be the perfect game script for Barkley to take some pressure off Hurts and the much-maligned passing-game.
