This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
This is arguably the best weekend of football this season, with a strong combination of quantity and quality. We're back with another edition of the Underdog Pick'Em article. I'll break down some of my favorite picks of the weekend, relying heavily on the data found at the links below. For those who want to make picks of their own, those three resources are a great place to start.
Pace + Pass Rate over Expectation - https://www.rotowire.com/football/pass-ratings.php
Individual player stats - https://www.rotowire.com/football/player-stats.php?view=receiving
Defense vs. Position - https://www.rotowire.com/football/defense-vs-pos.php?scoringtype=ppr
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Higher
D'Andre Swift vs. LAR – higher than 52.5 rushing yards
The Bears understandably went to a very pass-heavy offense last weekend while chasing points against the Packers, but Swift still recorded 13 carries. Chicago has also tried to rely even more heavily on the run when possible, so Swift's workload should be safe regardless of game script. Meanwhile, the Rams aren't the easiest of matchups, but they have been gashed for big games by the likes of Chuba Hubbard (Week 13), Kenneth Walker (Week 16) and Bijan Robinson (Week 17) in recent weeks.
Davante Adams at CHI – higher than 54.5 receiving yards
Kyren Williams at CHI – higher than 57.5 rushing yards
The Bears' defense is the most vulnerable of any of the eight units remaining, so the Rams should be able to move the ball. Even better is that it's fairly easy to predict how touches will be distributed, with Adams, Williams and Puka Nacua being the centerpieces. Blake Corum has legitimately cut into Williams' workload, but this projection takes that into account. The Bears did a good job limiting Josh Jacobs in the wild-card round, but they've allowed 4.77 yards per carry in their 18 games this season – the fifth-highest mark in the league.
Nacua and Adams will command nearly all of Matthew Stafford's targeted passes, which makes it relatively easy for Adams to rack up yardage even when the duo isn't totally in sync. Last week's win over the Panthers provides a good example, as his 13 targets led to only 72 yards. Now in his second game back from an extended absence, the passing game should get a bit more on track for Los Angeles.
Christian Kirk at NE – higher than 38.5 receiving yards
There are targets to be had in Houston with Nico Collins (concussion) sidelined. Jayden Higgins would have been my guess to be the one to step up, but Kirk had the better role in the Texans wild-card round win at Pittsburgh in terms of snaps, targets and target quality. His projection remains reasonable, as do the projections for Higgins (37.5 receiving yards) and Dalton Schultz (39.5 receiving yards).
Jake Tonges at SEA – higher than 37.5 receiving yards
Tonges has topped a 60 percent route participation rate in six games (including the postseason) and has beaten this projection four times in that sample. He should clear that route threshold once again this weekend with George Kittle (Achilles) sidelined. Even in a tough matchup, Tonges should be able to surpass this projection based on his role.
Lower
Rashid Shaheed vs. SF - lower than 23.5 receiving yards
Perhaps the Seahawks used their first-round bye to further incorporate Shaheed into the offense, but he's been relatively uninvolved since being acquired in time for Week 10. He's been targeted only once in each of the last three games, going for only 10 total receiving yards in that span. Shaheed has run only 49 routes in that same span, with a 6.1 percent targets per route run rate.
James Cook at DEN – lower than 78.5 rushing yards
The Bills' rushing offense has slowed in the face of tough matchups the last couple of games, including a Week 17 matchup against the Eagles and last week's wild-card round contest against the Jaguars. Cook's numbers have predictively fallen, as he's picked up only 120 yards on 34 carries. It's hard to envision things improving for he and the team this week. Denver has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per carry in the league and hasn't allowed an opposing back to top this projection since Jonathan Taylor ran for 165 yards in Week 2.
