This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Texans vs. Bills Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Thursday Night Football
Week 12 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Texans and Bills. It's a crucial game for both teams as they fight for a playoff spot in the AFC. Let's look at the betting side of this matchup and highlight three wagers to consider.
Mike Barner's season record: 31-32 (-6.89 units)
Texans vs. Bills Betting Odds
Texans: Spread +5.5 (-105), +240 Moneyline (ESPN Bet)
Bills: Spread -5.5 (-115), -285 Moneyline (Bet MGM)
Game Total: 43.5 points (DraftKings)
Davis Mills will start at quarterback for the Texans with C.J. Stroud (concussion) having been ruled out for his third straight game. The Bills will be missing a key part of their passing game with Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) sidelined.
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Texans vs. Bills Betting Picks & Props
Josh Allen under 19.5 pass completions (-132 FanDuel) for 1 Unit
Despite throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns against the Buccaneers last week, Allen finished with just 19 completions. He only attempted 30 passes, marking his seventh game of the season with 30 or fewer pass attempts. After averaging 18.1 completions per game last season, Allen has averaged 20.4 completions this season.
The Texans have one of the best defenses in the league, allowing just 16.3 points per game. They have given up the second-lowest completion rate in the league, which has resulted in them allowing an average of 18.1 completions per game. When these two teams battled each of last season, Allen only completed nine of his 30 pass attempts. It might be difficult for the Bills to sustain long drives in this game, which makes this under appealing.
Woody Marks 60+ rushing yards (-151 DraftKings) for 1 Unit
Marks posted just 44 rushing yards against the Titans last week, but the big takeaway was his season-high 18 carries. That marked his sixth game of the season with at least 10 rushing attempts. In those six games, he came away with at least 60 rushing yards three times. For the season, he now has a 76.8% positive rush rate.
As good as the Bills have been this season, one of their big weaknesses has been their run defense. They have given up 5.36 yards per carry to running backs, which is tied for the second-highest mark in the league. Last week, they allowed the duo of Sean Tucker and Rachaad White to combine for 157 rushing yards. With the expectation that Marks receives around 15 carries in this matchup, he has a favorable opportunity to reach at least 60 rushing yards.
Ka'imi Fairbairn over 1.5 field goals made (-140 DraftKings) for 1 Unit
Fairbairn missed the last two games with a quadriceps injury. In his absence, Matthew Wright made all four of his field goal attempts. Fairbairn has been a full participant in practice for this entire week, paving the way for him to make his return to the field.
Before suffering his injury, Fairbairn had made at least two field goals in all but one game this season. In four of those games, he made at least three of them. The Texans might not have a problem moving the ball up and down the field with how bad the Bills have been against the run, but the Texans have the second-worst touchdown percentage inside the red zone in the NFL. Fairbairn could have a few opportunities to make field goals in this matchup.
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Texans vs. Bills Prediction
The Bills are 5-1 at home this season, but just 2-2 on the road. Even with Stroud out, the Texans have won each of their last two games. Given how well the Texans have played on defense, this has the potential to be a close game that comes down to the final minutes. Still, look for the Bills to pull out the victory.
Bills 20, Texans 16
