NFL Picks: Packers vs Lions Thanksgiving NFL Odds and Picks

NFL Picks: Packers vs Lions Thanksgiving NFL Odds and Picks

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions : Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Thanksgiving Week 13

The Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) travel to Detroit to take on the Lions (7-4) in an NFC North matchup on Thanksgiving. The Packers are coming off a huge divisional home win against the Vikings, while the Lions are off a home overtime win against the Giants.

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Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds

  • Packers +3.0 (Caesars -113)  / Lions -2.5 (DraftKings -120)  
  • Packers ML (BetMGM +135) / Lions ML (DraftKings -148)
  • Total OVER 47.5 (ESPN Bet -115) / UNDER 48.5 (DraftKings -110) 
  • Packers total points: Over 22.5 (Caesars -127) / Under 23.5 (DraftKings -115)
  • Lions total points:  Over 24.5 (BetRivers -112) / Under 25.5 (DraftKings -110) 
  • First-half spread: Packers +2.5 (BetMGM -110) / Lions -0.5 (DraftKings -115)                     
  • First-half total: Over 23.5 (ESPN Bet -130) / Under 25.5 (BetMGM -125)
  • First-half team total: 
    • Packers Over/Under 10.5 (BetRivers -110/-113) 
    • Lions Over/Under 13.5 (BetRivers +104/-129)      

The Lions opened as 2.5-point home favorites, but it has been bouncing around from -3.0 and -3.5. The total opened at 49.5 and it dropped to 48.0 which is where it sits currently. 

The majority of the bets (52%) have come in on the Lions, but the handle is at 54% in favor of the Packers. This reflects that there is even money on both sides.

The total has 60 percent of bets on the UNDER, but 64 percent of the money.  The moneyline is on the Lions at 78% of the bets and 72% of the money. 

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Key Injuries

Packers - TE Tucker Kraft (O), WR Jayden Reed (IR), DE Lukas Van Ness (O), WR Matthew Golden (Q)

Lions - CB Terrion Arnold (Q), DE Marcus Davenport (IR), OT Penei Sewell (Q), OT Taylor Decker (Q), TE Sam LaPorta (IR)

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Packers vs. Lions Betting Picks 

This is about an even of a matchup as you can get with the Lions holding the edge on offense, but the Packers on defense. 

BETTING TRENDS

  • Green Bay is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games.
  • Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
  • Green Bay is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games against Detroit.
  • Green Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games against Detroit.
  • Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
  • Detroit is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.
  • Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.
  • Detroit is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay.

Packers vs. Lions Best Bets

  • Packers/Lions UNDER 48.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
  • Lions -2.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
  • Jordan Love UNDER 232.5 passing yards for 1 unit (FanDuel -114)

Packers vs. Lions Predictions

This is a revenge spot for the Lions and they have owned this series particularly at home. With this being a short week and both teams knowing each other well I am stronger on the UNDER versus the side, but will look at the Lions laying -2.5. 

Lions 24, Packers 20

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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