This article is part of our PrizePicks NFL series.
Best NFL Wild Card Weekend PrizePicks Plays - Sunday
Best PrizePicks Picks current as of 7:30 AM ET Sunday.
Jalen Hurts 32.5 Rushing Yards (MORE)
Hurts at home in a win-or-go-home game against a defense that can't generate a pass rush and is depleted at linebacker? I'll be heavily invested here.
I genuinely can't see a scenario where Hurts doesn't rack up yards with his legs -- even if the defense attempts to contain or spy him. The Eagles have clearly limited designed runs for most of the season to keep him healthy, but this feels like the spot where they unleash him. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if he clears this number on just the scrambles alone.
Josh Allen 227.5 Passing Yards (MORE)
This line is higher in other spots, but PrizePicks has kept the original number and I love it.
We all know offensive coordinator Joe Brady doesn't love pushing the ball downfield, which makes sense when your run game is elite and your receiving corps is ... underwhelming. However, he may not have much of a choice Sunday.
This Jaguars defense has been a major pass funnel -- almost to the extent of what we've historically seen from the Ravens. They're going to sell out to stop the run and force you to beat them through the air, and teams have had success doing exactly that. If this game becomes high-scoring -- I believe Liam Cohen's Jaguars offense can move the ball consistently to help facilitate that -- then Brady may have to open things up and let Allen air it out.
Rather than playing Bills pass-catcher roulette, I'll take Allen to spread it around.
Travis Etienne 64.5 Rushing Yards (MORE)
Recent numbers suggest Buffalo's run defense has improved, but over the full season they're still allowing the fifth most rushing yards -- and a deeper look into the last five games reveals some fool's gold.
Two of those "strong" performances came against the Jets and Browns, both playing from behind and without their starting running back. Another was against the Eagles, who were dealing with a slumping offensive line and a very uncreative run scheme. The most telling game was against the Patriots, in which they allowed over 10.0 yards per carry and watched TreVeyon Henderson go for 150 yards.
I believe Cohen is right up there with Kyle Shanahan when it comes to run-game creativity, making it easy for running backs to gain yards before contact. In a matchup like this, Etienne could easily break a couple of long runs. Honestly, if you prefer making the "more" play on the 15.5 longest rush instead of the total yardage, I could absolutely see that paying off as well.
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