This article is part of our PrizePicks NFL series.
Best NFL Week 12 PrizePicks Plays - Thursday Night Football
Best PrizePicks Picks current as of 8:15 AM ET Thursday.
Woody Marks 62.5 Rushing Yards (MORE)
Could it finally be time we take an over on rushing yards in a prime-time matchup? Yes, indeed, and it comes with a rookie who was handed the keys to Houston's backfield while becoming a major fantasy football factor over the last two weeks. I think this number is a little deflated thanks to a subpar 18-carry, 43-yard performance from Marks in Week 11, but the Titans are a clear pass funnel that has been well above average vs opposing running backs. The Bills, however? Quite the opposite as one of the league's most dramatic run funnels that has routinely given up big numbers on the ground, including Sean Tucker's 106-yard game last week. It wasn't just Tucker, either, as Rachaad White also averaged 5.1 yards a pop in the same contest.
Gabe Davis 0.5 Touchdowns (MORE)
This is both the first anytime touchdown and demon play we have gone with since beginning this column, so we're checking two boxes here. Houston's defense is not to be messed with, so I really want to target some upside plays like this one and Josh Allen alternate rushing yards for a higher payout. Davis was finally active in Week 11, and Allen went right back to him like days of old. In his first game back Davis played 40 percent of the snaps, and he finished second on the team in yards per route ran. He was also a hair away from a score, but the football was knocked away at the last second.
This is a bit of an eyeball test, but it was immediately clear Davis is ahead of some of his fellow wideouts, and with Keon Coleman on the outs -- check for updates on RotoWire's NFL player news page -- I think Davis will remain a factor moving forward.
Josh Allen 33.5 Rushing Yards (MORE)
As mentioned, Houston's defense is no joke, and they are containing opposing quarterbacks on the ground while being only one of three teams who have prevented a single signal-caller from reaching the end zone. However, if we dig a little deeper into that we can see why props and ladders involve Allen's rushing yards could be a hidden gem.
The Texans haven't seen a quarterback who can run like Allen, but even still, they are allowing a whopping 10.7 YPC on quarterback scrambles compared to the league average of 7.7. What does that tell us? When mobile quarterbacks like Allen are able to break contain, they're getting yards in bunches, and who is better at that than he is? Plus, he may not be shy to tuck and run against Houston's stout pass rush.
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