This article is part of our PrizePicks NFL series.
Best NFL Week 14 PrizePicks Plays
Best PrizePicks Picks current as of 6:45 AM ET Sunday.
Chase Brown 52.5 Rushing Yards (MORE)
I thought Samaje Perine would eat into Brown's workload upon his return last week, and he indeed racked up 16 touches on Thankgiving. However, Brown still totaled 22 touches -- including 15 carries -- of his own before getting a break down the stretch with the Bengals on a short week and the game getting out of hand.
Joe Burrow being back under center opens up plenty of light boxes for the running backs, because defenses will prioritize preventing explosive plays in the passing game. The Bills have allowed the third most rushing yards in the league, and the 5.2 YPC they are giving up is also among the worst.
With fewer defenders up close, weather that could push the Bengals to run more than usual in neutral situations and a Bills defense that's been gashed on the ground, it could be a big day on the ground for Brown.
Dalton Kincaid 8.5 Fantasy Score (MORE)
Sure, he's banged up and hasn't played since getting hurt in Week 10, but Buffalo's passing attack has missed him, and the matchup is too good. I know
Kincaid's absence didn't matter much in Week 13 against the Steelers, who couldn't stop the run to save their lives and had zero offensive firepower to put pressure the Bills. This week is different. The Bengals also struggle against the run, but their offense will put up points, and Buffalo will need to keep pace with tactics other than James Cook zone runs.
Per RotoWire's Defense vs. Position page, Cincinnati is allowing more of these stats to opposing tight ends than any other team: targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. That's exactly what the doctor ordered in this scenario. You could argue that Kincaid's snap count will be limited, but look at the AFC playoff picture. The Bills can't afford to mess around.
J.J. McCarthy 186.5 Passing Yards (MORE)
I get how poorly McCarthy has played this season, but hear me out.
Washington's secondary is one of the worst in the league -- only the Cowboys have allowed more yards through the air -- and they rank last among all teams in both completion percentage allowed and in yards given up on first-read options. Considering Justin Jefferson is seemingly the first read on most of McCarthy's passes, I'm taking a leap of faith on the first-year starter.
We've been burned before when trying to buy low on quarterbacks in great matchups -- Lamar Jackson on Thanksgiving -- but the lines are what they are for a reason.
The fact Sunday's game will be played in a dome gives McCarthy a bump, and it's worth noting that he hasn't faced many soft defenses so far. In his six appearances he has gone up against Chicago twice, Detroit on the road when they were healthy, a Falcons team in Week 2 that was wrecking teams on defense, and a Green Bay unit that has been one of the league's best. In the softest secondary matchup he has seen this season -- against the Ravens in Week 10 -- he threw for 248 yards.
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