This article is part of our NFL DFS Pick 'Em series.
It's the first week of the bestball playoffs on Underdog, which has taken up a lot of the focus around the industry this week. However, there's still plenty of fun to be had with the Pick' Em game on the platform, and we're back with some Week 15 selections.
For those looking to research picks of their own, these resources are particularly useful:
Individual player stats - https://www.rotowire.com/football/player-stats.php?view=receiving
Defense vs. Position stats- https://www.rotowire.com/football/defense-vs-pos.php?scoringtype=ppr
For those new to Underdog and looking to get in on the action, use the promo code ROTONFL at the following link for a bonus on your first deposit.
Higher
Isaiah Likely at CIN – higher than 7.5 fantasy points
The Bengals are the premier matchup for tight ends this season regardless of measure, and it's not particularly close. Using 0.5 PPR scoring, which is the setting that Underdog uses, the Bengals have allowed 20.2 fantasy points per game to the position. The next closest team is the Commanders, who have surrendered 13.3 fantasy points per game.
That puts both Baltimore tight ends on the radar, and Likely has been productive in different ways in the last few weeks. He's earned exactly six targets in each of the last two weeks, recording two receptions of at least 20 yards in Week 13 against the Bengals) while earning three red zone targets in Week 14. The bottom line is that Likely is emerging as one of Lamar Jackson's better secondary targets behind Zay Flowers, and the matchup is the best that could be asked for.
D'Andre Swift vs. CLE – higher than 56.5 rushing yards or Kyle Monangai higher than 51.5 rushing yards
There are correlated picks with the Chicago in this week's article, with the theory being that it can win this game with its run game. The Bears have the fourth-lowest pass rate overall this season, and rank in the bottom third in pass rate over expectation. While the Browns' offense has improved under Sanders, they still aren't able to possess the ball, and aren't likely to truly push the Bears on Sunday.
The Cleveland defense is one point of hesitation in this pick, but the offense's inability to maintain possession of the ball should balance out the tough matchup. In the last three games, all of Shedeur Sanders' starts – the team has possessed the ball for only 27:09 per game – the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Both the projected game script and the Bears' projected game plan point to a lot of rushing volume for Swift and Kyle Monangai, and both are good picks for the higher.
Wan'Dale Robinson vs. WAS – higher than 57.5 receiving yards
The Washington offense has drawn a lot of scrutiny due to the injury issues of both Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin, as well as the lack of production in the running game. That's overshadowed a defense that has been a disaster both against the run and pass. The Commanders have allowed 213, 165, 59 and 128 rushing yards to the top two opposing running backs in the last four weeks, which should put Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary on the radar.
As for the receivers, the Commanders have allowed 9.42 yards per target this season, placing them among the three worst teams at defending the pass in the league. Robinson is the pretty obvious pass-catching option to target for the Giants, and this is a relatively modest projection given the context.
Michael Pittman at SEA – higher than 35.5 receiving yards
There is so much unknown about the Colts' offense as of Friday afternoon, most notably whether Philip Rivers or Riley Leonard will suit up. The team's skill-position players unsurprisingly have low projections, but this sets up to be a game for Tyler Warren and Pittman to be the favored pass catches. In particular, Pittman earned 12 targets (11 from Leonard) in Week 14, only the third time he's seen double-digit targets this season and matching his season high. Even if it's Rivers under center, expect a lot of short passes. That would benefit Pittman rather than Alec Pierce, who had previously taken over as the Colts' most reliable pass catcher.
Lower
Caleb Williams vs. CLE – lower than 188.5 passing yards
The case for Williams is the inverse of that for Swift and Monangai above. It's a bit harsh to say the Bears are winning despite Williams, but the offense has relied on him to provide a few splash plays per game through the air rather than be the driving force behind the unit for much of the season. For example, he's averaged over 6.0 yards per attempt in only eight of 13 games this season and in only three of the team's last six games. Finally, the wind chill is expected to be in the negatives in Chicago on Sunday, so this is lining up to be a grind-it-out game that results in a Bears win.
Trey McBride at HOU – lower than 67.5 receiving yards
It's tough to make selections against elite players, but the Texans' defense has a legitimate claim as the best unit in the league. Houston has allowed only two tight ends to surpass 50 yards all season (Brenton Strange in Week 3 and Chig Okonkwo in Week 11), and they'll undoubtedly game plan to shut down McBride as the primary threat in the Arizona offense.
Josh Jacobs at DEN – lower than 69.5 rushing yards
Jacobs began the week with a pair of DNPs in practice, and left his game status up in the air when speaking to the media. Head coach Matt LaFleur struck a more optimistic tone Friday, while also relaying that Jacobs would practice in limited fashion, so it seems as though he is lining up to play at Denver on Sunday. His practice status and general health should still be a consideration, however. Following his return from a one-game absence in Week 12, Jacobs played only 53 percent of snaps (admittedly still handling 17 carries). He'll now draw a Broncos defense that has allowed only two backs to surpass this projection all season, and none since Week 3 when Omarion Hampton tallied 70 rushing yards. The potential for a split backfield with Emanuel Wilson, and a tough matchup, points to the lower.
RJ Harvey vs. GB – lower than 50.5 rushing yards
There's some significant excitement surrounding Harvey due to his Week 14 showing, but his rookie season has been defined by inefficiency as a runner. Even giving him the benefit of looking beyond his 3.9 yards per carry doesn't help. He ranks third-worst in the league in rush yards over expectation per carry (-0.62), with only Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey being worse. The Packers' run defense has been a bit inconsistent of late, but Harvey hasn't been impressive since taking over as Denver's primary back.
