NFL Odds Tracker: NFL Week 15 Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Odds Tracker: NFL Week 15 Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention. 

On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.  

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NFL Week 15 Odds 

Week 15 NFL Lines (odds via BetMGM)

*home team in bold

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NFL Week 15 Odds Observations

• The highest spread is Colts at Seahawks: -13.5
• The lowest spread is Bills at Patriots: PICK
• There are 6 games that have a line of -7.0 points or greater
• The highest total game is Lions at Rams 55.0; the lowest total game is Raiders/Eagles 38.5
• There are only 3 road favorites in Week 15 
• Only 2 games have a total higher than 47.5 points
• There is a heavy concentration of totals between point ranges 39.5-42.5 
• 11 games have seen their totals drop from the opening numbers
• The highest team totals are Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, Jaguars, Cowboys and Ravens
• The lowest team totals are Raiders, Jets, Colts, Titans, Browns and Cardinals

NFL Week 15 Line Movement

A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most. 

As we enter the final stretch of the NFL season, I will focus on more recent line movement in the write-ups, as the same teams (Rams, Seahawks, Patriots) are typically going to see the biggest moves from May until now. Indianapolis had been included in that group, but recent events have changed things...

They have Philip Rivers now, for crying out loud.

The key here is to examine line movement over the last 14 days and understand why the line has shifted.  Weather will also play a key factor in outdoor games and those in colder regions, so keep an eye on the totals (snow, wind, and temperatures below 40 degrees). 

Washington Commanders at New York Giants 

The opening line on this game in May was Commanders -4.5, but their season has been marred with significant injuries on both sides of the ball. The Giants have not been without their share of injuries, along with a head coaching change. 

But the re-injury to Jayden Daniels is the biggest reason for this line move, which saw Washington reopen -1.5, but now the Giants are -2.0 for a full 3.5 line move inside of a week. Neither team has much to play for at this point in the season. The total is now at 47.5 after opening at 45.5. 

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks 

I have been betting on football for almost 40 years and I do not think I have ever seen a line move this much in such a short period of time. The Seahawks were -3.5 on 12/2, reopened -9.5 after the Colts lost, the Seahawks blew out the Falcons, and Daniel Jones went down for the season with an Achilles injury.  Word then got out that backup quarterback Riley Leonard was also dealing with a knee injury leaving the Colts with Brett Rypien as the only healthy quarterback on the team (practice squad).  Indy has signed Philip Rivers out of retirement. 

The number continued to rise incrementally as oddsmakers could not make Seattle high enough of a favorite. It went from -9.5, -10, -10,5, -11,5, -12.5, and now sits at -13.5. Normally a game like this would just be taken OTB (off the board) until the quarterback situation was resolved. 

Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles

With my focus on line movement within the past week, I will shift towards a couple of games that have seen some strong movement on their totals. 

The total originally opened at 44.5 and betweeen both teams offenses being terrible, it is now sitting at 38.5 for a 6 point move downward. The Raiders quarterback situation is also in question as it looks like Kenny Pickett will be starting. The difference between Geno Smith and Pickett on the point spread is minimal, but the perception of how the Raiders will be able to move the ball is driving this total down. 

The Eagles struggled again on offense Monday night against the Chargers losing 22-19, but the game was 10-6 at halftime. 

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 Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams   

Another game with a huge swing in the total with an opening number of 48.5 and it is now sitting at 55.0 which is the second highest total of the season (Cowboys/Lions and Cowboys/Commanders hit 55.5).

This game being played on turf and in a great environment is a big part of why this total has skyrocketed, but these are also two very good offenses and I would expect this one to be a track meet. 

NFL Week 15 Injury Report

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