NFL Odds Tracker: NFL Conference Championship Weekend Odds

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Odds Tracker: NFL Conference Championship Weekend Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads

The NFL Divisional Round is here and the odds for each matchup have taken shape. 

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention. 

On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.  

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NFL Conference Championship Schedule

Patriots at Broncos at 3:00 ET on Sunday (CBS)

Rams at Seahawks at 6:30 ET on Sunday (FOX)

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Odds 

Conference Championship Weekend NFL Lines (odds via BetMGM)

*home team in bold

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NFL Conference Championship Weekend Odds Trends

Patriots at Broncos

• The Broncos are the largest home underdog in championship round history
• New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games.
• New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
• New England is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against Denver.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games.
• Denver is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 12 games against New England.
• Denver is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home.

Rams at Seahawks

• LA Rams is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams' last 8 games.
• LA Rams is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games.
• LA Rams is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against Seattle.
• Seattle is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games.
• Seattle is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Seattle's last 14 games against LA Rams.
• Seattle is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games at home.

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Line Movement

A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most. 

You will not see very much line movement in the playoffs as these lines are only going to have a total of 6-7 days of shelf life. But each line move you see this week just means that much more so do not take a 0.5 or 1.0 line move lightly. 

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

I decided to use the look-ahead lines in the championship games because of the impact of the line movement. This is especially the case in the Patriots/Broncos as Denver was a 1.5 home favorite on the look ahead, but the season-ending injury to Broncos quarterback Bo Nix changed this completely. 

Backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham will get the nod for the Broncos, and if you ask most experts Nix should be worth about 2-3 points towards the line. The Patriots should have been a 3-point road favorite at most, but they are now -4.0 and were as high as -4.5, which means there is value on the Denver side. This is often the case as overreaction to the value of the position comes into play.  

The Broncos still have one of the better home-field advantages in football and a very stout defense. 

The total opened 45.5 and was immediately moved down to 40.5 which is a full 5 point swing. The market corrected and it went back up to 41.5 and hit 42.5 on 1/20. 

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Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks come into the NFC Championship off an impressive 41-6 home win against the 49ers, while the Rams had to travel on the road for the second straight week and pulled out an overtime win against the Bears 20-17. 

In the two prior regular-season meetings, the games were extremely close as the Rams won 21-19 at home and the Seahawks won 38-37 in Seattle. 

The look-ahead line was Seattle -1.5 and it reopened -2.5 with some books moving it to -3.0. I am surprised this has not touched -3.5 in favor of Seattle because of how well they have been playing. The Rams have not been the same team on the road and their defense has shown it can be taken advantage of. 

The total was 48.5 on the look-ahead and it has dropped to 47.5, which is significant because 48 is one of the key numbers in the NFL for totals (27-21, 31-17, 28-20). 

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NFL Conference Championship Injury Report

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