This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Jaguars vs. Broncos: NFL Odds, Picks and Predictions
A fascinating late-season battle for AFC supremacy unfolds at Empower Field on Sunday, and we dive into best bets for the critical conference clash.
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Jaguars vs. Broncos NFL Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Jaguars +154 (BetMGM) / Broncos -177 (BetRivers)
- Point spread: Jaguars +3.5 (BetMGM) / Broncos -3.5 (DraftKings)
- Totals: Over 46.5 points (DraftKings) / Under 47.5 points (ESPN Bet)
Despite Jacksonville's recent success, the spread for this game has grown in favor of a Broncos win. The number sat at -2.5 before Week 15 play, and after bouncing between 3 and 3.5 early in the week, it has notably remained at 3.5, past the key three-point threshold, heading into the weekend.
The total has also been an upward trajectory, which is newsworthy considering the quality of the two defenses at play. The number sat at a lowly 42.5 points before Week 15, but after the two teams combined for 82 points last Sunday, it began a steady ascension over the course of the week and has hit as high as 47.5 at some sportsbooks heading into the weekend.
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Jaguars vs. Broncos NFL Picks
It unsurprisingly took a bit to kick in, but Liam Coen's quarterback-friendly and highly effective offensive scheme has begun paying serious dividends as his first season at the helm has gone on. Coen has helped Trevor Lawrence, who was increasingly seeing his No. 1 overall pick pedigree sullied by his play, to a significant resurgence, and Jacksonville heads into Sunday with five consecutive wins.
Lawrence has even gone three straight games without an interception, although two of those contests were against the Titans and Jets and a third came against a Sauce Gardner-less Colts secondary. Naturally, the matchup gets much more daunting against the Broncos, who have allowed a stingy 182.4 passing yards per home game at a tiny 56.7% completion rate.
Additionally, no team has pressured the quarterback more effectively than the Broncos, who have compiled a league-high 58 sacks. Meanwhile, Lawrence has taken 32 sacks despite his mobility, and the pressure on him could be even higher with the Broncos' raucous home crowd egging on the defense and making it exceedingly difficult to communicate pre-snap.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have demonstrated that they can prevail in any way imaginable during their 11-game winning streak. Bo Nix in particular has stepped up his game and put some early-season doldrums mostly behind him. Nix checks into Sunday having completed 69.5% of his passes for 1,130 yards with a 5:1 TD:INT in his last four games while also adding a rush TD in that span.
The probability of a high-scoring game seems relatively low here despite the recent increase in the total, but I do see an outside chance that there are more points scored than one might expect, especially with the Jaguars allowing 25.6 points per road game (compared to 16.1 per home contest). However, I would focus on that as my secondary bet, with my primary being a Broncos win combined with a solid passing day for Nix against a Jacksonville defense surrendering 248.3 passing yards per road contest.
Jaguars vs. Broncos NFL Bets:
- SGP: Broncos moneyline and Bo Nix 225+ passing yards (+136 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Over 46.5 points (-118 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jaguars vs. Broncos NFL Prediction
Broncos 28, Jaguars 22
A 12-game winning streak is an extreme rarity in any sport, and the NFL is certainly no exception. However, we have a talented defense playing at home and looking to protect its hold on the No. 1 seed in the conference, and a quarterback in Lawrence, that, despite recent improvement, can be goaded into turnovers. As such, I see a close Denver win in a game that will be decided in the fourth quarter.
