This is the sixth season in which the NFL has had a 14-team playoff format. That means that the No. 1 seed in each conference has the only bye through the postseason's first round.
But an NFL betting trend centers around when teams clinch that top seed and homefield advantage throughout the conference playoffs. How beneficial is that extra week of rest and does it matter when teams clinch that top seed?
Here are the results:
When No. 1 Seeds Clinch And How They Fare In Playoffs
Postseason Result | Clinched Final Week (5 teams) | Clinched Penultimate Week (5 teams) |
Won Super Bowl | 1 | 0 |
Lost Super Bowl | 1 | 3 |
Lost Conference Championship Game | 1 | 1 |
Lost Division Round | 2 | 1 |
RotoWire.com, your home for top sportsbook promo codes, limited this list to seasons since 2020, when the NFL expanded from 12 to 14 playoff teams. In the 12-team playoff era, both the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in each conference had a first-round bye in the playoffs.
NFL Playoff Scenarios
This year's race for the top seed in each conference is coming down to the wire, just as it has in each season since 2020. The Super Bowl odds reflect this – entering the final week of the season, the Los Angeles Rams are the Super Bowl favorites at BetMGM Sportsbook at +475 odds, even though they can no longer win the NFC West or the top seed.
Week 18 games will settle both top seeds for the 2025-26 postseason. In the NFC, it's simple: The winner of Saturday's game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara, California, will be No. 1. Seattle (12-3) is a game ahead, so in case of a tie the Seahawks will claim the No. 1 seed. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Niners are a 1.5-point favorite as of Monday morning for that game, which kicks off at 8 p.m. Eastern.
In the AFC, Denver has the simplest scenario for Week 18: A victory at home over the Chargers on Sunday (4:25 p.m.) gives the AFC West champion Broncos the top seed. The New England Patriots need a victory over the Miami Dolphins (4:25 Sunday) plus a Broncos loss. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a remote chance – they must defeat the Titans (1 p.m. Sunday) and have both the Broncos and Patriots lose.
But the Jags must focus on their own game, because a loss to Tennessee plus a Texans victory over the visiting Colts (1 p.m. Sunday) would give Houston the AFC South title. That's very unlikely, as Jacksonville is an 11.5-point favorite with bet365 Sportsbook to top the 3-13 Titans.
How Teams Finish Based On When They Clinch No. 1 Seed
Here is how No. 1 seeds have finished in the past five years, based on when they clinched the top spot, broken down into each conference with the AFC first:
- 2024: Chiefs clinched in second-to-last week, lost Super Bowl; Lions clinched in final week, lost division round (entering the playoffs, the Lions were the Super Bowl favorite at +275 odds)
- 2023: Ravens clinched in second-to-last week, lost conference championship; 49ers clinched in second-to-last week, lost Super Bowl (49ers were the Super Bowl favorite at +225 odds)
- 2022: Chiefs clinched in final week, won Super Bowl; Eagles clinched in final week, lost Super Bowl (Chiefs were the Super Bowl favorite at +325 odds)
- 2021: Titans clinched in final week, lost division round; Packers clinched in second-to-last week, lost division round (Packers were the Super Bowl favorite at +375 odds)
- 2020: Chiefs clinched in second-to-last week, lost Super Bowl; Packers clinched in final week, lost conference championship (Chiefs were the Super Bowl favorite at +200 odds)
According to SportsOddsHistory.com, which gets historical odds from BetMGM, the 2020 Chiefs were the biggest favorite in this span to win the Super Bowl, with +200 odds before the playoffs began.
Has The NFL Achieved Ultimate Parity?
One of the most interesting things to emerge from the past five years is that being the No. 1 seed is no guarantee of glory.
The only No. 1 seed since 2020 to win the Super Bowl was the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs, who defeated the NFC's top seed, the Philadelphia Eagles, for the championship. That's the only time in this span when both No. 1 seeds reached the Super Bowl.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the Rams (+275 odds) are the favorites to win the NFC and the Denver Broncos (+325) have the inside betting track to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 60 on Feb. 8 in Santa Clara, California.
No. 1 Seed No Guarantee Of Glory
Having the No. 1 seed gives teams an extra week of rest and homefield advantage throughout the conference playoffs, but only half of those teams parlayed that regular-season success into a Super Bowl appearance.
Three No. 1 seeds stumbled at the first hurdle, in the division round: The Detroit Lions last season (losing to the Washington Commanders) and both top seeds in 2021, the Titans (against the Cincinnati Bengals) and the Green Bay Packers (against the 49ers).
Compare that to the five-year span preceding this one (from 2015 to 2019) when three No. 1 seeds won the Super Bowl and three more reached the big game. In that timeframe, No. 2 seeds (which, remember, also had a first-round bye) claimed the Vince Lombardi Trophy in the other two seasons.
Our US sportsbook apps reviews will keep you up to date as this year's NFL playoffs approach.
