This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves for NFL Week 3
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 3 Odds (Opening/Current)
Week 3 NFL Lines
- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Bills -8.5 O/U 48.5) / (Bills -12.5 O/U 49.5)
- Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (Titans -1.5 O/U 45.5) / (Colts -3.5 O/U 43.5)
- Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles -4.5 O/U 46.5) / (Eagles -3.5 O/U 45.0)
- Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (Vikings -1.5 O/U 47.5) / (Vikings -2.5 O/U 42.5)
- Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (Packers-5.5 O/U 43.5) / (Packers -8.5 O/U 42.5)
- Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders (Commanders -7.5 O/U 47.5) / (Commanders -3.0 O/U 44.5)
- New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bucs -7.5 O/U 45.5) / (Bucs -7.0 O/U 44.5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (Patriots -1.5 O/U 43.5) / (Steelers -1.5 O/U 44.5)
- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Texans -1.5 O/U 46.5) / (Jaguars -1.5 O/U 44.5)
- Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Panthers -1.5 O/U 46.5) / (Falcons -4.5 O/U 43.5)
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (Chargers -1.5 O/U 44.5) / (Chargers -2.5 O/U 45.5)
- New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (Seahawks -6.5 O/U 43.5) / (Seahawks -7.5 O/U 41.5)
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (49ers -3.5 O/U 47.5) / (49ers -1.5 O/U 43.5)
- Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (Bears -3.0 O/U 47.5) / (Bears -1.5 O/U 50.0)
- Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants (Chiefs -6.5 O/U 43.5) / (Chiefs -6.0 O/U 44.5)
- Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (Ravens -3.5 O/U 49.5 ) / (Ravens -4.5 O/U 51.5)
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NFL Week 3 Key Injury News
QB - Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy
RB - Jaydon Blue, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones
WR - Xavier Worthy, Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, Brian Thomas Jr
TE - George Kittle, Dallas Goedert
Other key players
OL Christian Darrisaw, S Harrison Smith, T Tristan Wirfs, DT Ed Oliver
NFL Week 3 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Bills -12.5 vs Dolphins; the lowest spread is Bears/Cowboys -1.0
- The highest total game is Lions/Ravens 51.5; the lowest total is Vikings/Bengals and Saints/Seahawks 41.5
- There are six road favorites in Week 3
- There is a heavy concentration of totals between 42.5-44.5 points
- The highest team totals are Bills, Ravens, Commanders, Bucs, Bears
- The lowest team totals are the Browns, Saints, Giants, Dolphins, Jets
NFL Week 3 Line Movement
A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
The Bills opened -8.5 back in May, and the line moved to -10.5 on 9/9. When the game reopened on 9/14, it jumped up to -12.5 with -13.5 even in some places.
The Bills are 2-0 and the Dolphins are 0-2. This is a combination of the Dolphins' bad Week 1 loss to the Colts and the Bills' dominant win over the Jets in Week 2. 12.5 points does feel very high in a AFC East division clash, but the public has zero faith in the Dolphins right now.
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings opened as -1.5 home favorites, but we have a quarterback situation with Joe Burrow and the Vikings were up to a -4.5 home favorite before settling back down to -2.5 and -3.0. The total has moved significantly from the opening number at 47.5 and dropped to 41.5.
Burrow has been ruled out for the next 3 months, and the Bengals will turn to Jake Browning who is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. I think the side is on par with where it should be, but the total really sunk after the Vikings pitiful performance on Sunday night against the Falcons.
Late word came out on Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who is now out for 2 to 4 weeks with a high ankle sprain. Carson Wentz will now be the starting quarterback for the Vikings.
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns
The Packers are looking like the best team in football after the first two weeks, especially on defense. But we all know the NFL season is long and two games is a small sample size. That is why we have an opening line of Packers -5.5 and now its all the up to -9.0. There are some rumblings that the Browns could go to Dillion Gabriel at quarterback to see what they have.
This is a huge number, I can see the Packers winning for sure but a back door in the barn being left open and somehow it ends up like 24-16 Green Bay.
Other Games with Line Movement
Titans / Colts - Titans opened -1.5, Colts are now -3.0 (Boy does this ever feel like a trap game/overreaction)
Raiders / Commanders - QB Jayden Daniels' health is in question. The Commanders opened -7.5 and the line has shifted down to -3.5; the total has also dropped from 47.5 to 44.5.
Falcons/Panthers - The Panthers are being looked at as one of the worst teams in the league, along with the Saints. The Falcons had a close loss in Week 1 that they should have won and they put a beatdown on the Vikings Sunday night. The 6-point line move does feel a bit aggressive, especially for a divisional game.
