NFL Coaching Hires Since 2023: What Media, AI Insights Say About Tenure

The NFL coaching carousel appears to have finally spun to a halt after one of the most tumultuous cycles the league has seen in years. Ten teams changed head coaches this offseason, tied with the 2022 cycle for the most movement since the 2009 cycle when 11 teams made switches (though two of those were interims gaining full-time jobs after taking over for coaches fired midseason).  

As always, these moves elicited a wide range of reactions from across the media landscape. But how well does media sentiment actually predict coaching success? RotoWire.com's Max Staley attempted to answer that question using X's Grok AI to grade the original online response to the 20 NFL head coaching hires made from 2023 to 2025 on a scale of one to five - with one meaning the media "hated" the hire when it was made and five meaning they "loved it" at the time.  

We then assigned our own (admittedly subjective) one through five grade to each hire based on how things have played out on the field over the past three seasons to compare how coaches performed based on their expectations.  

This is what we discovered about the link between first impressions and final performance:

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NFL Coaching Hires 2023-2025

Gut Reaction To NFL Hires?

It turns out rapid reactions might be more meaningful than they are credited. Only eight of the 20 hires from the last three cycles earned a media grade of three or less and those lukewarm or worse takes appear mostly justified. Five of those eight coaches have already been fired, including four of the five coaches that earned a worst grade from us based on their on-field results.

Frank Reich lasted just eleven games with the Carolina Panthers after receiving the bad but not hated tag from the media at the time of his hiring. Whatever hires Jerod Mayo and Antonio Pierce constitute two of the other three one-and-done head coaches from the last three cycles (though Pierce coached nine games as an interim in 2023 before landing the permanent gig) while Brian Callahan was dismissed in October six games into his second season with a 4-19 record. Jonathan Gannon managed to avoid our harshest grade for lasting three full seasons, but his 15-36 record in Arizona shows that criticism of his hire was warranted.

Optimism In Dallas

All three lesser regarded hires that are still employed have spent two seasons or less in their current position but have demonstrated better aptitude than expected. Dallas' decision to promote Brian Schottenheimer from offensive coordinator to head coach last offseason was universally panned by the press, resulting in the only worst grade awarded in the media category, but his team fared better than the 2024 Mike McCarthy-led squad despite the record barely changing from 7-10 to 7-9-1. The Schottenheimer Cowboys averaged 7.1 more points per game, improving 14 spots in scoring offense and 15 spots in total offense, while reducing the team's point differential deficit from -118 to -40.

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Early Returns in Atlanta, Jax, NY...

Had we conducted this exercise a year ago, Dan Quinn's stock would be higher than it is now.  Quinn shattered expectations taking Washington to its first conference championship game since the 1991 season in 2024, but the Commanders came crashing down from 12-5 to 5-12 this year, leading to some questions about what the future holds for the franchise. 

After orchestrating a nine-win turnaround with the Jaguars this season, Liam Coen earned the vaunted home run hire tag from us, the only coach from the lower initial grade group to do so. He will need to avoid a Quinn-like slip up to prove he is not a one-year wonder, but Jacksonville's marked improvement on both sides of the ball under Coen was quite convincing.

Of the twelve coaches to garner a four or five from the media grades, ten still remain in their jobs and nine of those ten received a four or five from our results grades, indicating the best regarded candidates mostly indeed do deliver better results. The biggest whiff on the media side came from the Raiders hire of Pete Carroll last year. His long track record of success netted him points at the press conference, but Las Vegas tied for the worst record in the league this season and he was unceremoniously dismissed last month.

The only other fired coach from the highly regarded group, Raheem Morris received a middle of the road performance mark from us, but that was not enough to stop Atlanta from making a move this offseason. Morris guided the team to consecutive 8-9 seasons but was not given a third season as the Falcons chose to clean house, terminating general manager Terry Fontenot as well.

Viewed as one of the top first-time candidates last cycle, Aaron Glenn came to the Jets with about as much fanfare as an unproven defensive minded coach can generate, but the results have not matched the hype so far. The Jets limped to a 3-14 finish and league worst -203 point differential, raising some discussions about whether Glenn would go one and done, though the organization committed to giving him a second chance next year.

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Breakout Success Stories Among Recent Appointments

Otherwise, the high-end candidates from the past three cycles have lived up to their billing, especially those considered the absolute best hires.  All five coaches that earned home run status from the media received it from us as well for their results. Sean Payton, DeMeco Ryans, Jim Harbaugh, Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson all led their teams to the playoffs this season and own a combined nine postseason appearances out of a possible ten since being hired by their current team with a collective 111-59 regular season record.

There is not a perfect formula for finding a coach who will be successful.  These five coaches come from diverse backgrounds – two are first time head coaches, three are retreads; one took a year off between jobs; one left the NFL to coach college and came back; some have offensive backgrounds, some have defensive ones; some are known as schemers and others as culture builders.  But if the media reacts with effusive praise towards your team's next coaching hire it is probably worth a listen.  After all, Sunday's upcoming Super Bowl will feature two teams whose recent celebrated hires have elevated their squads to a championship-caliber level, though Mike Macdonald's status has risen from liked, not loved to home run, making him one of only two recent hires to jump into the home run category without initially being labeled as such by the media.