This article is part of our Box Score Breakdown series.
The idea here is to do a deep dive on some of the key developments from Box Score Breakdown, my weekly recap article with advanced stats, injury reports and usage metrics for every player/team. Below you'll find the most important usage trends to be aware of each week, including some that indicate changing/fluctuating depth charts or major shifts in our weekly projections.
1. RB Jaylen Wright took 76% of snaps after De'Von Achane's exit in Week 14
- Key W14 Stats: 24 of 29 RB Opportunities (83%) post-injury | 24-107-1 Rushing Line
Ollie Gordon has been Miami's No. 2 RB for most of the season, but he and Wright each took three carries in the previous game (Week 12), and Wright then had a 3-0 advantage in carries at the time of Achane's exit this past Sunday against the Jets. One of those three carries was a two-yard TD, and he then got another 21 carries and three targets (all incomplete) after Achane's departure.
That's enough to make Wright arguably the top waiver add of the week, even though Achane's rib injury reportedly isn't serious. There's no guarantee of Achane missing time, nor any guarantee of Wright being so far ahead of Gordon again. Still, fantasy teams scrambling for a short-term RB2 would be wise to prioritize Wright where he's available.
2. RB Bhayshul Tuten played just two snaps in Week 14.
- Key W14 Stats: 2 Fumbles (1 Lost) | 3% Snap Share
Tuten nearly lost a fumble on a kickoff and then did lose a fumble on his second carry of the game (late in the second quarter). He didn't play a snap on offense after that, with Travis Etienne dominating rushing work (20-74-2) while LeQuint Allen (zero carries, two targets) continued to get playing time only on pass plays.
In other words, Etienne's value rises if the Jaguars don't trust Tuten, who was one of college football's worst fumblers during his two years at Virginia Tech. On the other hand, Tuten hadn't fumbled in the NFL through his first 12 games, and previous fluctuations in his Jacksonville workload (whether positive or negative) didn't carry over to the next week.
3. RB Bucky Irving played only 35% over Tampa's final seven drives in Week 14.
- Key W14 Stats: 49% Snap Share | 18 of 38 RB Opportunities (47%)
Irving played 73% of snaps over the first four drives of Sunday's loss to the Saints, appearing to take on a larger role in his second game back from an injury. He even scored a 24-yard receiving TD on the Bucs' first series, but three of his first six carries resulted in a loss, including a play early in the second quarter that was followed by Irving limping off the field.
He returned in short order, but from that point forward the Bucs used a three-headed backfield, with Sean Tucker taking seven carries while Rachaad White got eight carries and two targets (Irving had nine carries during the same stretch). It's possible this was all just the product of a minor injury that won't matter for Week 15, but the situation is worth monitoring in case Irving's performance was also a factor (and/or in case the injury ends up impacting him). He's provided explosive plays and receiving production this year, but Irving is averaging just 3.4 YPC, down from 5.4 last season.
4. RB Chris Rodriguez took 67% of Washington's RB touches pre-Q4 in Week 14
- Key Pre-Q4 Stats W14: 50% Snap Share | 10 of 15 RB Opportunities (67%)
RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt finished with seven carries for 32 yards on a 20 percent snap share, but with the vast majority of his playing time coming in the fourth quarter once the outcome had been decided. Before the fourth quarter, Rodriguez handled 50% of snaps and 10 of 15 RB opportunities, with JCM getting four carries (all in Q3) and Jeremy McNichols drawing one target. Rodriguez is a game-script-dependent player on a bad team, but he's at least been clearly ahead of Croskey-Merritt for a few weeks now, with no real change this past Sunday until garbage time.
5. RB RJ Harvey had new highs for snap share (68%) and yards (100) in Week 14.
- Key W14 Stats: 61% Route Share | 23 of 33 RB Opportunities (70%) | 17-75-1 Rushing
Game No. 3 without J.K. Dobbins saw Harvey in his strongest role yet, even getting carries in what essentially was garbage time. The rookie finished with a 17-75-1 rushing line and 6-25-0 receiving line, with his six targets being second most on the team. He had career highs for snap share, route share, target share, rushing yards, total yards, touches, and probably some other stuff. Meanwhile, Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin each got just five touches on less than 20% snap share. Harvey is locked in as an RB2 even with a tough matchup against Green Bay coming this week.
6. WR Ryan Flournoy put up 7-110-1 after CeeDee Lamb's concussion in Week 14.
- Key post-injury Stats: 92% Snap Share | 7-110-1 (9 Targets) |
Flournoy moved into an every-down role once Lamb entered concussion protocol and essentially got the same kind of usage Lamb had been getting beforehand (6-126-0 on eight targets). Flournoy had two catches for five yards on four targets at the time of Lamb's injury early in the third quarter. After Lamb left, Flournoy exploded for 7-110-1 on nine targets, with the help of a busted coverage that led to a
The strong effort pushed Flournoy's target rate for the season up to 21%, which is around league-average for a WR and much higher than any of the Cowboys' depth receivers. Lamb, for comparison, has a 29% target rate, with George Pickens at 25%. Prorating Flournoy's target rate to a full-time role would suggest about seven targets per game in the Dallas offense.
Earlier this year when Lamb missed time, Flournoy put up receiving lines of 2-21-0 (three targets, 32% snaps), 2-14-0 (two targets, 23% snaps), 6-114-0 (nine targets, 57% snaps) and 3-30-0 (six targets, 69% snaps). That's not bad, and he wasn't even playing much in the first two games.
Lamb has a chance to clear concussion protocol this week and make the whole point moot, but it's not hard to see why Flournoy was one of the top pickups Tuesday/Wednesday (in both redraft and dynasty leagues). This is one of the few cases where a WR handcuff/backup might actually work out well for fantasy.
7. WR Jakobi Meyers has four straight games with a target share of 20+ percent.
- Key W11-14 Stats: 91% Route Share | 26% Target Share | 24% Air-Yard Share
Despite getting stuck in some run-heavy game scripts, Meyers has four straight games with at least six targets and 11.4 PPR points, averaging 4.8 catches for 60.8 yards and 0.75 TDs on 7.0 targets over that stretch. Brian Thomas was unavailable for most of that time, but Thomas returned to a full-time role this past Sunday and finished with four fewer targets than Meyers. There's a real chance Meyers is the target leader here even if/when the Jags have both Thomas and Parker Washington (hip) at full strength down the stretch.
8. WR Noah Brown had a team-high 81% route share in Week 14.
- Key Stats: 63% Snap Share | 1-19-0 (2 Targets)
Brown returned from an absence of nearly three months with a surprisingly large role, playing the same number of snaps as Terry McLaurin while finishing solidly ahead of both McLaurin and Deebo Samuel in route share (69%). The blowout score was a small factor, but Brown got more playing time than Samuel throughout. While unlikely to get enough targets for mainstream fantasy value, Brown's presence perhaps tempers some of the enthusiasm for Samuel (and to a lesser extent, McLaurin) taking on more target after TE Zach Ertz's season-ending injury.
9. TE Harold Fannin topped 90% snap share and 21% target share in Weeks 12-14
- Key W12-14 Stats: 92% Snap Share | 28% Target Share | 15-197-2 (22 Targets)
The combination of negative game script and a favorable defensive matchup led to Fannin exploding for 8-114-1 in Sunday's 31-29 loss to the Titans. It was his third straight game with a snap share above 90 percent, a route share above 80 percent and a target share above 21 percent, only this time with the Browns throwing 42 passes (after just 46 total attempts over the previous two weeks). David Njoku's early exit with a knee injury may have helped a little bit, but Fannin's role expansion predated that by a full two weeks, i.e., he was maxed out on snap/route share even with Njoku playing.
Fannin won't get to play the Titans every week, but Sunday's explosion solidified him as Cleveland's far-and-away No. 1 target, with a low-aDOT (5.6) profile that should lessen the negative impact of any bad weather (the Browns either play at home or in Chicago the next three weeks). He also seems to have chemistry with fellow rookie Shedeur Sanders, though Fannin's strong target rates have been a constant amid the QB carousel this year. The recent spike in playing time, followed by a Week 14 spike in production, has Fannin in mid-TE1* range for the stretch run.
*This would've been saying a lot more back in October when Jake Ferguson, Oronde Gadsden, Dallas Goedert, etc. were all looking good. The position has really thinned out since then, with Fannin one of the few prominent TEs whose fantasy scoring has actually improved late in the year.
10. TE Juwan Johnson played a season-low 53% of snaps in Week 14.
- Key W14 Stats: 57% Route Share | 4-38-0 (4 Targets)
The Saints were either tied or leading for most of the game, which likely had an impact here, but it's still worth noting when Johnson has otherwise been so consistent in keeping his snap and route shares above 70 percent. His only other game below that number was Week 10 at Carolina, which also happens to be the only other contest in which the Saints held a lead for most of the game.
However, he still hit 70% route share in that game, with the drop in playing time mostly occurring after the Saints had a lead. In Week 14, Johnson's playing time was way down from the jump, including a snap share of just 55% in the first quarter. Taysom Hill, meanwhile, had his largest role of the season in terms of TE snaps, with Foster Moreau (45% snaps) and Jack Stoll (24%) also playing a bunch. None of this means Johnson can't rebound next week, but a few lost routes around the fringes matters a lot when you're more of a borderline starter than a high-confidence one in the first place
