This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Giants at Commanders Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Week 1
The Giants overhauled their quarterback depth chart during the offseason, adding Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart. Wilson is the starter heading into the season, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Dart under center eventually. Wilson and the Giants will be put to the test in Week 1, facing the Commanders on the road. Let's dig into this matchup and highlight some wagers to consider.
Giants at Commanders Betting Odds
Giants: Spread +5.5 (-108), +225 Moneyline (BetMGM)
Commanders: Spread -5.5 (-112), -250 Moneyline (ESPN Bet)
Game Total: 45.5 points (DraftKings)
While the Giants made changes at quarterback, the Commanders will look different at running back. They traded Brian Robinson Jr. to the 49ers, leaving them without their top rusher from last season. Robinson had recorded at least 178 carries in each of the last three seasons.
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Giants at Commanders Betting Picks
Giants at Commanders Best Bet: Malik Nabers Over 73.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Even with the Giants being a mess at quarterback last season, Nabers dominated his rookie campaign. He finished with 109 receptions, 1,204 receiving yards and seven touchdowns despite missing two games. He was targeted on 31.0 percent of his routes run, which resulted in him finishing the season with 170 targets. While he battled injuries during training camp and the preseason, he is not listed on the Giants' injury report for this game.
Wilson is not a top-tier quarterback anymore, but he is an upgrade over the quarterbacks that the Giants had last season. What should benefit Nabers the most is Wilson's ability to throw the deep ball. While Wilson only played 11 games for the Steelers last season, he completed 40 passes of at least 20 yards. Nabers has double-digit target potential right out of the gate, making the Over the way to go here.
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Giants at Commanders Best Bet: Darius Slayton longest reception Over 16.5 yards (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Wilson's ability to throw deep should also be a benefit to Slayton, who was named a team captain after signing a three-year contract to remain with the Giants during the offseason. Although Slayton only had 39 receptions last season, nine of them went for at least 20 yards. He averaged 14.7 yards per reception, he has averaged at least 15.0 yards per reception in four of his six seasons in the NFL. While the Commanders defense will be focusing on Nabers, Slayton has a favorable opportunity to haul in a deep pass.
Giants at Commanders Best Bet: Austin Ekeler Over 24.5 receiving yards (-109 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
With Robinson having been traded, the running back spot is in flux for the Commanders. They have options, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr. all on the depth chart. Ekeler should be the starter for Week 1, but he might not necessarily receive the most carries in the game. He received at least 10 carries in just two of his 12 games last season.
Ekeler is not the rusher that he was in his prime, but he is still dangerous in the passing game. During the Commanders' playoff run last season, he received at least four targets in all three games, topping 25 receiving yards in two of them. In two regular season meetings with the Giants, Ekeler received a total of seven targets. He posted three receptions for 47 yards against them in Week 2, then followed it up with three receptions for 41 yards in Week 9.
Giants at Commanders Prediction
The Giants were only 2-6 on the road last season, while the Commanders went 7-2 at home. However, the Giants have improved in more areas than just quarterback. Their defensive line should create a lot of pressure after they drafted Abdul Carter. Their secondary also improved with the additions of cornerback Paulson Adebo and safety Jevon Holland. While the Commanders should still be able to come away with the win, look for the Giants to cover the spread.
Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Giants 20
Pick: Giants +5.5 (-110)
