Fantasy Football Start/Sit: NFL Conference Championship Games

This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.

I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.

With only three games remaining in the season, I'm ditching the usual start/sit format but keeping the positional rankings. We'll start with those, before moving on to discussion of the two conference championship games.

QB Rankings

1. Drake Maye
2. Matthew Stafford
3. Sam Darnold
4. Jarrett Stidham

RB Rankings

1. Kenneth Walker
2. Kyren Williams
3. Rhamondre Stevenson
4. RJ Harvey
5. TreVeyon Henderson
6. J.K. Dobbins (IR - foot)
7. Blake Corum
8. Tyler Badie
9. George Holani (IR - hamstring)
10. Jaleel McLaughlin
11. Cam Akers
12. Velus Jones

WR Rankings

1. Puka Nacua
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
3. Davante Adams
4. Stefon Diggs
5. Courtland Sutton
6. Kayshon Boutte
7. Pat Bryant (concussion)
8. Cooper Kupp
9. Marvin Mims
10. Rashid Shaheed
11. DeMario Douglas
12. Troy Franklin (hamstring)
13. Lil'Jordan Humphrey
14. Kyle Williams
15. Jordan Whittington

TE Rankings

1. Hunter Henry
2. AJ Barner
3. Colby Parkinson
4. Evan Engram
5. Austin Hooper
6. Tyler Higbee
7. Terrance Ferguson
8. Elijah Arroyo (IR - knee)
9. Adam Trautman
10. Nate Adkins
11. Eric Saubert
12. Davis Allen

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - 3:00 ET

Betting Odds

• Patriots -4.5
• O/U 42.5
• Patriots (23.5) @ Broncos (19.0)  

The Broncos were 1.5-point favorites in look-ahead projections, but Bo Nix's season-ending injury makes New England a 4.5-point favorite instead. If Nix were healthy, I'm guessing this line would close in pick 'em range, with the Patriots viewed as a slightly superior team. It's been argued that the two hosts on conference championship weekend are the two teams that gain the most from home-field advantage. That's probably accurate, though in Seattle's case it matters less because they're facing a divisional opponent from the West CCoast.

New England, on the other hand, will have to travel cross-country and play at altitude. Neither of those things matters as much as they once did, but it's not nothing either. The good news for the Patriots, obviously, is that they have the better team. That was probably true even before Nix's injury, with Denver grading out as one of the weaker No. 1 seeds in recent memory if we look at stuff like point differential, DVOA and EPA (or basically anything besides W-L record).

Injury Report

• CB Carlton Davis (concussion) 
• C Garrett Bradbury (illness)
• OLB Harold Landry (knee)

The Patriots are in good shape here, with OLB Harold Landry expected to play through his knee injury again while CB Carlton Davis seems to be making a quick recovery from last week's concussion. Apart from Landry, the only practice absences Thursday were starting center Garrett Bradbury and backup linebacker Marte Mapu (hip). Davis seems to be the major question mark here.

• WR Pat Bryant (concussion)
• WR Troy Franklin (hamstring)
• RB J.K. Dobbins (IR - foot)
• C Alex Forsyth (ankle)

Bryant and Franklin both left last week's game in the first half and never returned. For Bryant, it was his second concussion in less than a month, after getting knocked out and carted off in Week 16. He returned for Week 18 and then caught three passes on the opening drive of Denver's win over Buffalo. At the beginning of the week, I considered both Bryant and Franklin unlikely to play. But both have been practicing, with Bryant even upgrading to full participation Thursday.

The other question marks are RB J.K. Dobbins (foot) and C Alex Forsyth (ankle), with the former looking to return from a long absence while the latter looks to rebound from an injury that knocked him out of last week's game. The Broncos will need to activate Dobbins by Saturday evening if he's going to play Sunday afternoon. If they do that, it'll be hard to predict the workload split between Dobbins and RJ Harvey (with Tyler Badie also likely still having a small role).

Long story short, it's tough to get a good read on Denver's offense, with a backup QB taking over amidst uncertainty at RB, WR and C. That's generally a bad thing, but Sean Payton might be able to use it to his advantage (kind of) in terms of unpredictable playcalling.

Prediction

• Patriots 24 - Broncos 13

Denver's defense is excellent, but it's not quite on the same level of dominance as Houston's. For a second straight week, the Patriots are healthier than their opponent and have a huge advantage at QB. I also think they have at least a slight advantage coaching-wise, regardless of Sean Payton's ring.

Best Fantasy Matchup(s)

•  WR Kayshon Boutte

This isn't a good matchup, but it's better than what most offensive weapons are dealing with in this game between two teams that played strong defense all season. Denver's man-heavy approach has often led to CB Riley Moss being targeted downfield while Patrick Surtain locks up his man on the other side. Moss isn't nearly as bad as some of the criticism suggests, but it is fair to say that he's been the relative weak link of a strong CB group. Moss figures to see plenty of Boutte, who has been Drake Maye's favorite downfield receiver all year.

Toughest Fantasy Matchup(s)

• RB RJ Harvey

The Broncos may want to emphasize their running game more with a backup QB taking over, but they simply haven't had much success on the ground this year, especially in the absence of Dobbins. From a fantasy standpoint, Harvey has largely gotten by on touchdowns and receiving production, averaging just 3.7 YPC. New England, meanwhile, has limited RBs to 3.8 YPC (3rd) and 72.2 rushing yards per game (2nd). Once we factor in a potential Dobbins return, there are too many ways that things can go wrong for Harvey this week, even with his pass-catching upside.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks - 6:30 ET

Betting Odds

• Seahawks -2.5 
• O/U 46.5   
• Rams (22.0) @ Seahawks (24.5)  

In the first matchup between these teams, back on Nov. 16, the Rams were three-point home favorites and ended up winning (21-19) but not covering. Seattle was then a 1.5-point favorite for the rematch... and ended up winning by one point (38-37) in overtime.

The Seahawks have played much better than the Rams since that second meeting on Dec. 18, but the Rams look slightly healthier despite not having the benefit of a bye week.

Injury Report

• LT Charles Cross (foot)
• LT Josh Jones (ankle)
• OT Amari Kight (knee)

QB Sam Darnold will play through his oblique injury again, but LT Charles Cross (foot) is looking shaky after an early exit in the divisional round. Backup left tackle Josh Jones (knee) didn't play last week and didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday, and fellow depth lineman Amari Kight (knee) has also been absent from practice.

• CB Emmanuel Forbes (knee)
• OLB Byron Young (shoulder)
• RT Rob Havenstein (IR - ankle)

Forbes' early exit last week led to more playing time for Darious Williams, who has plenty of starting experience but was a healthy scratch for the wild-card round. Forbes has been a limited practice participant, suggesting some chance to return this week.

Havenstein returned to practice Thursday after landing on IR in mid-November. He doesn't seem especially likely to play, but he'd have another two weeks to prepare if the Rams make the Super Bowl. Warren McLendon has been playing well at right tackle, in any case.

Prediction

• Rams 20 - Seahawks 17

The Rams have a better, healthier QB, and a better, healthier O-line. Seattle's defensive talent won't quite be enough to make up for it.

Best Fantasy Matchup(s)

• RB Kenneth Walker

The Rams have been solid against the run, but not dominant, allowing 4.1 YPC (11th) to running backs. In the previous two meetings between these teams, Walker had rushing lines of 16-67-1 and 11-100-1, plus his two best receiving yardage totals of the year (3-44-0, 3-64-0). Now he'll face the same defense without snap/touch competition from Zach Charbonnet (knee).

Toughest Fantasy Matchup(s)

• WR Davante Adams

Adams was the primary TD scorer for an elite offense for most of the season, but he hasn't had much luck since returning from a hamstring injury, and will now face one of the better secondaries in the league. He did score in his previous matchup against the Seahawks, but it was a one-yard TD that accounted for his lone reception on eight targets. I also think we'll see the Rams use a lot of multi-TE formations, as opposed to last week when they spent 90% of the time in 11 personnel against Chicago. Given the stakes here, Puka Nacua presumably will get more snaps and routes than Adams in 13 personnel if the Rams do in fact shift back in that direction.