Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Divisional Round Playoffs

This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.

I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.

Start/Upgrade 👍       

• QB Bo Nix (vs. BUF)👍
• [LOGO] QB Sam Darnold (vs. SF)

Nobody can accuse me of being a Bo Nix believer in real life, but he has plenty of merit in fantasy, often accounting for nearly all of the offensive production for a team that struggles to run the ball even in friendly matchups. It looks like Nix and Darnold may be the only QBs that don't have to deal with bad weather or an excellent defense this weekend, and Darnold will be playing (presumably) through an injury.

QB Rankings for Divisional Round

1. Josh Allen (at DEN)
2. Drake Maye (vs. HOU) 
3. Bo Nix (vs. BUF)
4. Matthew Stafford (at CHI)
5. Caleb Williams (vs. LAR)
6. Brock Purdy (at SEA)
7. Sam Darnold (vs. SF)
8. C.J. Stroud (at NE)

• RB Kenneth Walker (vs. SF) 👍
• RB RJ Harvey (vs. BUF)
• RB Kyren Williams (at CHI)

San Francisco's no-name defense ultimately got the best of Philadelphia's disjointed offense, but we shouldn't expect a repeat on the road against a No. 1 seed. I also don't think this will be a repeat of the 49ers-Seahawks game in Santa Clara a few weeks ago, but improvement for San Francisco figures to come on the offensive side. This is a good matchup for both Walker and Zach Charbonnet.

RB Rankings for Divisional Round

1. Christian McCaffrey (at SEA)
2. James Cook (at DEN)
3. Kyren Williams (at CHI)
4. RJ Harvey (vs. BUF) 
5. D'Andre Swift (vs. LAR)
6. Kenneth Walker (vs. SF) 
7. Woody Marks (at NE)
8. Zach Charbonnet (vs. SF) 
9. Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. HOU)
10. TreVeyon Henderson (vs. HOU)
11. Blake Corum (at CHI)
12. Kyle Monangai (vs. LAR)
13. Jaleel McLaughlin (vs. BUF)
14. Ty Johnson (at DEN) - ankle 
15. Jawhar Jordan (at PIT) - ankle
16. Nick Chubb (at PIT) 
17. Brian Robinson (at SEA)
18. Ray Davis (at JAX) - moves up a few spots if Ty Johnson is out

• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Rashid Shaheed (vs. SF) 👍
• WR Luther Burden (vs. LAR) 👍

The Rams played good defense for most of the season, but the past month has been a disaster, in part due to a patchwork cornerback group. Chicago's top three WRs all have fairly similar projections in terms of target volume, with Burden getting the least playing time but sporting the highest target rate. DJ Moore rarely leaves the field but isn't targeted at a high rate on a per-snap/route basis, while Rome Odunze falls somewhere between Moore and Burden on both accounts. 

WR Rankings for Divisional Round

1. Puka Nacua (at CHI)
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. SF)
3. Courtland Sutton (vs. BUF)
4. Davante Adams (at CHI)
5. Stefon Diggs (vs. HOU)
6. Khalil Shakir (at DEN)
7. Luther Burden (vs. LAR)
8. Jauan Jennings (at SEA)
9. DJ Moore (vs. LAR) 
10. Jayden Higgins (at NE)
11. Rome Odunze (vs. LAR) 
12. Rashid Shaheed (vs. SF)
13. Christian Kirk (at NE)
14. Pat Bryant (vs. BUF)
15. Kayshon Boutte (vs. LAC) 
16. Ricky Pearsall (at SEA) - questionable (knee/ankle) 
17. Demarcus Robinson (at SEA) 
18. Brandin Cooks (at DEN) 
19. Cooper Kupp (vs. SF) 
20. Jaylin Noel (at NE)
21. Troy Franklin (vs. BUF) 
22. DeMario Douglas (vs. HOU) 
23. Kendrick Bourne (at SEA)
24. Keon Coleman (at DEN)
25. Marvin Mims (vs. BUF)
26. Xavier Smith (at CHI)
27. Olamide Zaccheaus (vs. LAR)
28. Efton Chism (vs. HOU)

• TE Colston Loveland (vs. LAR)👍
• TE AJ Barner (vs. SF) 👍

Weather is a minor concern for the Rams-Bears game, but Loveland may be less impacted than Chicago's wideouts if cold and wind affect the passing game. The rookie has a three-game streak with double-digit targets and 20-plus PPR points. He probably won't keep that going, yet easily ranks as TE1 for the weekend.

TE Rankings for Divisional Round

1. Colston Loveland (vs. LAR)
2. Hunter Henry (vs. HOU)
3. AJ Barner (vs. SF) 
4. Dalton Schultz (at NE)
5. Jake Tonges (at SEA)
6. Dawson Knox (at JAX)
7. Dalton Kincaid (at JAX) - leg
8. Tyler Higbee (at CHI)
9. Colby Parkinson (at CHI)
10. Evan Engram (vs. BUF)
11. Cole Kmet (vs. LAR)
12. Austin Hooper (vs. HOU)
13. Cade Stover (at NE)
14. Elijah Arroyo (vs. LAR) - knee

Sit/Downgrade 👎

• QB Brock Purdy (at SEA) 
• QB Drake Maye (vs. HOU) 
• QB C.J. Stroud (at NE)
• RB TreVeyon Henderson (vs. HOU)
•   RB Woody Marks (at NE) 
• WR Stefon Diggs (vs. HOU)

Tweets of Note