Fantasy Football Sits for Week 13: Downgrades & Alternate Streamers

This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.

I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.

Unless otherwise noted, references to "fantasy points" are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Brock Purdy (at CLE) — 43% started

Start Instead — Jacoby Brissett (at TB), Jordan Love (at DET), Joe Burrow (at BAL)

The Browns are a nightmare for QB fantasy production, sporting a top-five defense, bottom-five offense and oft-windy stadium. If Purdy starts off strong Sunday, he probably won't do much later in the game because the Browns are unlikely to keep up. If he struggles early, which is more likely, the 49ers will end up in a low-scoring game. This matchup easily has the lowest over/under (36.5) of Week 13, reflecting concerns about Cleveland's playing style and bad weather.

• Other Tough Matchups: Jared Goff (vs. GB), Caleb Williams (at PHI), Daniel Jones (vs. HOU), Marcus Mariota (vs. DEN), Bryce Young (vs. LAR)

Running Backs 👎

• Tyrone Tracy (at NE) — 47% started

Start Instead — RJ Harvey (at WAS), D'Andre Swift (at PHI), Woody Marks (at IND)

Tracy is coming off back-to-back games with over 130 total yards against defenses (GB, DET) in the top 10 for limiting fantasy production for running backs. The Giants unexpectedly jumped out to leads in both games, which allowed Tracy to get 23 touches in each contest despite sharing about one-third of the backfield work with Devin Singletary. Jaxson Dart's potential return from concussion protocol may be good news for the Giants in general, but it's bad news for Tracy's fantasy value, potentially dropping him back to third in line for goal-line carries. Dart's frequent scrambling could also mean fewer RB targets until Cam Skattebo (hopefully) returns at some point next year.

• Other Tough Matchups: Javonte Williams (vs. KC), Rico Dowdle (vs. LAR), D'Andre Swift & Kyle Monangai (at PHI), Aaron Jones & Jordan Mason (at SEA), Tony Pollard (vs. JAX)

Wide Receivers 👎

• Justin Jefferson (at SEA) — 92% started

Start Instead — Stefon Diggs (vs. NYG), DeVonta Smith (vs. CHI), Michael Wilson (at TB), 

Regardless of whether J.J. McCarthy (head) or Max Brosmer ends up starting, Jefferson is at risk of suffering league-worst QB play. He still gets enough volume that you basically have to start him in deep-ish formats, but those of you in 10-team leagues (or with stacked rosters in 12-teamers) would be wise to consider WR3 types over Jefferson. He does have a great run of matchups after this week's visit to Seattle, but it might not matter at the level of QB play the Vikings are getting right now.

• Other Tough Matchups: George Pickens & CeeDee Lamb (vs. KC); Tetairoa McMillan, Xavier Legette & Jalen Coker (vs. LAR); Jauan Jennings & Ricky Pearsall (at CLE); Rome Odunze, DJ Moore & Luther Burden (at PHI); DK Metcalf & Calvin Austin (vs. BUF); Michael Pittman & Alec Pierce (vs. HOU); Jordan Addison (at SEA); Tre Tucker (at LAC); Jerry Jeudy & Cedric Tillman (vs. SF)

Tight Ends 👎

• Colston Loveland (at PHI) — 16% started

Start Instead — Brenton Strange (at TEN), Harold Fannin (vs. SF), Zach Ertz (vs. DEN)

Loveland looks every bit the part of a first-round pick, but he's still losing a lot of snaps to Cole Kmet in 11 personnel, which keeps the rookie's route share below 70 percent each week in a Bears offense where the distribution of targets/touches is increasingly flat. Loveland has been getting by on efficiency rather than volume, which may lead to trouble now that he's facing the Eagles rather than the Bengals/Giants/Vikings/Steelers (Chicago's last four opponents). Philadelphia's defense has limited tight ends to 8.2 PPR points (3rd) and 5.01 YPT (1st).

• Other Tough Matchups: Tyler Warren (vs. HOU)