DraftKings NFL Week 15: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 15 slate on DraftKings includes 13 games and features Lions-Rams with its 55-point total as an obvious target for stacks. Ravens-Bengals will also be a popular matchup while Bills-Patriots, arguably the marquee game of the day, will go overlooked from a DFS standpoint. We have more games than usual, as bye weeks have ended, and generally that means ownership will spread around. 

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and, when in doubt, follow ownership, which you can get an idea of from our NFL DFS optimizer.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Christian McCaffrey vs. TEN ($9,000)

Even with a $9K price tag, McCaffrey projects as the top point-per-dollar value on the slate. What he's done this season is incredible, leading the league in both carries and catches. He's scored at least 17 DraftKings points in 12 of 13 games while topping 22 in 10. He's a player who's matchup-proof and a home date with the Titans just makes him extra safe. If anyone is a lock for cash-games, it's McCaffrey.

• WR Jauan Jennings vs. TEN ($5,200)

Jennings has at least four catches in seven consecutive games, and San Francisco's matchup at home against Tennessee could hardly be more favorable. We just saw their defense torched by Shedeur Sanders and the Browns. The 49ers are healthy and fresh off a bye. It's a spot for Brock Purdy and the passing game to impress, and Jennings remains his No. 1 WR with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Brock Purdy vs. TEN ($6,200)

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. NYJ ($5,700)

QB Jaxson Dart vs. WAS ($5,600)

QB C.J. Stroud vs. ARI ($5,200)

QB Marcus Mariota at NYG ($5,000)

RB Christian McCaffrey vs. TEN ($9,000

RB Jahmyr Gibbs at LAR ($8,800)

RB Saquon Barkley vs. LV ($7,100)

RB Ashton Jeanty at PHI ($5,800)

RB Woody Marks vs. ARI ($5,600)

RB Kenneth Walker vs. IND ($5,600)

WR Puka Nacua vs. DET ($8,700)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. IND ($8,600)

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs BAL ($8,100)

WR Davante Adams vs. DET ($7,200)

WR Nico Collins vs. ARI ($6,700)

WR Michael Wilson at HOU ($6,600)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. WAS ($5,900)

WR Jakobi Meyers vs. NYJ ($5,600)

WR Terry McLaurin at NYG ($5,400)

WR Jauan Jennings vs. TEN ($5,200)

WR Mitchell Tinsley vs. BAL ($3,100)

TE George Kittle vs. TEN ($5,400)

TE Harold Fannin at CHI ($4,000)

TE Mark Andrews at CIN ($3,900)

TE Theo Johnson vs. WAS ($3,500)

TE Isaiah Likely at CIN ($3,400)

TE Mike Gesicki vs. BAL ($3,300)

TE AJ Barner vs. IND ($3,200)

D/ST Houston Texans vs. ARI ($3,600)

D/ST Chicago Bears vs. CLE ($3,500)

D/ST Green Bay Packers at DEN ($2,800)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Baltimore Ravens (27) at Cincinnati Bengals (24.5)

Ravens

These teams met a couple weeks ago on Thanksgiving and Baltimore had five turnovers on their way to losing 32-14. Nevertheless, the game produced the most combined plays of Week 13 and a matchup against Cincinnati is as good as it gets. The Bengals defense ranks last in yards allowed, points allowed and EPA per play. They're worst in the league against RBs and historically bad against tight ends. Through 13 games, they've given up 97 catches for 1,259 yards and 15 touchdowns to the position. Cue up Mark Andrews ($3,900) and Isaiah Likely ($3,400). Likely had five catches for 95 yards in the first meeting and should've added a TD if not for fumbling on his way into the end zone. Lamar Jackson ($6,400) has struggled of late but his salary has fallen to a season-low, and it was nice to see him use his legs again last week as he rushed for 43 yards and a score on seven carries. Zay Flowers ($6,300) is coming off eight catches on 11 targets for 124 yards, though he's still yet to score since Week 1. As usual, Derrick Henry ($7,300) will be less popular than he should be in most tournaments as people avoid touchdown-dependent RBs who don't offer much in the passing-game. That makes him good leverage, as he has clear potential for 100+ yards and multiple scores in this spot. 

Bengals

Cincinnati ranks first in neutral pass rate (63 percent) and Joe Burrow ($6,600) threw at a 67 percent rate against the Ravens two weeks ago. Tee Higgins ($6,500) missed that game with a concussion and has been ruled out of this one after being placed back in the protocol Monday. Mitchell Tinsley ($3,100) drew nine targets in his absence. Mike Gesicki ($3,300) also stands to benefit given that he lines up mostly out wide and in the slot; he caught all six of his targets last week. Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100) is a great option no matter what, especially now that he's priced $500 below Nacua and Smith-Njigba. He caught seven of 14 targets for 110 yards in the first meeting and can be expected to see similar volume with Higgins ruled out.

• Favorite Ravens Stack: QB Jackson + WR Chase + TE Likely or TE Andrews
• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Burrow +/- RB Henry + WR Chase + TE Gesicki or TE Likely 

Detroit Lions (24.5) at Los Angeles Rams (30.5)

Lions

With a 55-point total, this matchup is an obvious target for stacks featuring two top offenses and no weather concerns. One benefit about the Detroit side is that it won't be overly popular. Star RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,800) just scored 37+ DraftKings points for the fourth time in seven games, and he'll be less popular than McCaffrey. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900) can break any slate and he'll be less popular than Nacua, Smith-Njigba and Chase priced above him. Jameson Williams ($6,100) will be less than 10 percent owned, and he's scored at least 16 fantasy points in five of the last six games while flashing a 30-point ceiling against Green Bay two weeks ago. Pairing any of them with Jared Goff ($6,100) would be all the leverage you need in GPPs.

Rams

Arguably the best offense in the league, the Rams throw at the third-highest rate (62 percent) and their games usually produce points and play volume. Matthew Stafford ($7,000) is coming off his seventh three-touchdown game of the season; he's averaged 325 passing yards in two previous meetings with his former team. The Lions are also banged up in the secondary and have actually been pretty bad against the pass over the last month. It looks like a great spot and it's no wonder that Puka Nacua ($8,700) projects as the top value at WR. He's also coming off a seven-catch, 167-yard effort against the Cardinals last week when he scored twice, ending a three-game drought. Like most weeks, Davante Adams ($7,200) is the leverage option. He rarely gets there on volume but makes up for it with touchdown efficiency, as he's caught 14 in 14 games. At single-digit ownership, a big game would go a long way. 

• Favorite Lions Stack: QB Goff + WR Williams/WR St. Brown + WR Nacua
• Favorite Rams Stack: QB Stafford + RB Gibbs + WR Nacua

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jalen Hurts + RB Ashton Jeanty + WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith

QB Brock Purdy + WR Jauan Jennings and TE George Kittle

QB Brock Purdy + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Jauan Jennings or TE George Kittle

QB Sam Darnold + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Jakobi Meyers

QB Jaxson Dart + WR Wan'Dale Robinson or TE Theo Johnson +/- WR Terry McLaurin

QB Jordan Love + WR Christian Watson

QB C.J. Stroud + WR Nico Collins or WR Jayden Higgins + WR Michael Wilson or TE Trey McBride

QB Marcus Mariota + WR Terry McLaurin +/- WR Wan'Dale Robinson

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. BAL ($8,100)

The news that Tee Higgins has been ruled out means that Chase is almost certainly in line for double-digit targets. We saw him catch seven of 14 for 110 yards against Baltimore when these teams met on Thanksgiving. We know Joe Burrow will be chucking, as the Bengals throw at one of the highest clips in the league and a matchup projected to be competitive and high-scoring gives Chase serious ceiling potential. 

• WR Puka Nacua vs. DET ($8,700)

Nacua is coming off seven catches for 167 yards and two touchdowns in a game he sat out the fourth quarter because of a blowout. I don't expect that to happen in what should be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair with the Detroit. The Lions are also dealing with multiple injuries in the secondary and have been bad against the pass over the last month, ranking 31st in EPA per drop-back. 

Honorable Mentions: RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. IND ($8,600)

It's never fun to fade a player who has slate-breaking upside, but you can't roster everyone. I've chosen to go with Nacua and Chase instead, mostly because their respective matchups have much higher totals and should produce more play volume. These expensive WRs are more likely to hit ceilings in high-scoring games, and I have trouble seeing Philip Rivers being able to push the Seahawks in Seattle.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Woody Marks vs. ARI ($5,600)

Marks is coming off a career-high 28 touches in last week's win over the Chiefs, as he barely came off the field in a game that saw backup Nick Chubb (ribs) injured. With Chubb's status in doubt for Sunday, this becomes a smash spot for Marks when you consider the matchup. Arizona plays uptempo, throws at the league's highest rate and can't stop anyone on defense. It's resulted in the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks putting up 40+ points in three of the last five weeks. Houston is playing their best football of the season. Even if Chubb is active, Marks will project among the best cheap values on the slate and be popular in cash-games.

The Bargain Bin

QB Jordan Love at DEN ($5,400)

QB C.J. Stroud vs. ARI ($5,200)

QB Marcus Mariota at NYG ($5,000)

RB Woody Marks vs. ARI ($5,600)

RB Kenneth Walker vs. IND ($5,600)

RB Tyrone Tracy vs. WAS ($5,500)

RB Devin Neal vs. CAR ($5,300)

WR Jayden Reed at DEN ($4,500)

WR Xavier Worthy vs. LAC ($4,500)

WR Jayden Higgins vs. ARI ($4,200)

WR Mitchell Tinsley vs. BAL ($3,100)

TE Theo Johnson vs. WAS ($3,500)

TE Isaiah Likely at CIN ($3,400)

TE Mike Gesicki vs. BAL ($3,300)

TE AJ Barner vs. IND ($3,200)

Weather

• It will be cold across the country but nowhere specific looks overly concerning as of Friday.