DraftKings NFL: Saturday Divisional Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

The Games

Quarterback

Josh Allen at DEN ($7,100): From a point-per-dollar standpoint, Allen actually projects the worst of the four quarterbacks, partly because the other three are so cheap and partly because the Bills are road underdogs against one of the league's best defenses. Nevertheless, we've seen Allen turn into Superman in these spots before. He did it again last weekend in Jacksonville, scoring 30 DraftKings points after rushing for two touchdowns and throwing for 273 yards. I expect him to be relatively lower owned this week, mostly because it's easier to afford McCaffrey and Smith-Njigba if you spend down at QB.

Bo Nix vs. DEN ($5,800): Nix projects as the top value of the four and could end up being the most popular as a result. He doesn't have a favorable matchup against a Bills defense that prioritizes stopping the pass, but we haven't seen him priced this low since Week 7. He also offers rushing upside, with 42+ yards on the ground in back-to-back games on 17 carries, which helps his projection. 

None of the four have particularly favorable matchups. Brock Purdy ($5,600) and the 49ers could only muster three points against an elite Seahawks defense two weeks ago with the division title on the line. He was heroic in last week's upset of the Eagles but will find it even tougher this week after the loss of George Kittle. Sam Darnold ($5,400) hasn't needed to do much over the second half of the season, as Seattle has been winning with defense and their running game. It's led to him failing to reach 10 fantasy points in five of the last nine games. Still, there are scenarios where he and/or Purdy can succeed, so they remain viable for GPPs considering they might only need to outscore Nix in order to be optimal. 

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey at SEA ($8,800): McCaffrey was held to 48 yards on 15 carries by a stout Eagles front seven but made up for it in the passing-game with six catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns. He should see major volume again Saturday with Kittle out and Ricky Pearsall uncertain. He projects as the top point-per-dollar value on the board, making him essentially a lock for cash games. Fading him in tournaments is reasonable because there are four other viable RBs who look appealing for various reasons. James Cook ($7,300) will be less popular than McCaffrey and even Harvey, meaning he'd offer leverage. We saw him have big games in tough matchups all season and people will shy away after three consecutive games of single-digit fantasy points. 

RJ Harvey vs. BUF ($6,200): I mentioned in last week's article when referencing Travis Etienne's matchup that the Bills defense is a run funnel. They're content allowing yards and receptions to opposing RBs. Harvey is a dual threat, with at least four catches in three of the last five. He should be heavily involved in both facets of the offense with J.K. Dobbins still a week away from returning.

Seattle's running game has been cooking and this looks like another great matchup against the banged up 49ers. Kenneth Walker ($5,500) rushed for 97 yards on 16 carries against them two weeks ago, and he added four catches. Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet ($5,300) had 74 yards and a TD on 17 carries and had three receptions. The problems with Seattle's RBs is that you're never sure who to choose. Charbonnett has four touchdowns in the last three games, as he's resumed his role as the goal-line back. Walker would be the more likely to hit the 100-yard rushing bonus and always has the potential to break a long TD. 

Wide Receiver

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. SEA ($8,500): Smith-Njigba feels like an easier click than McCaffrey because there is less competition at WR than there is at RB and the Seahawks have a considerably higher total than the 49ers. He's had an incredible season and hasn't slowed down. A lock for cash games and someone you'd only consider fading in tournaments for leverage. 

Courtland Sutton vs. BUF ($5,900): Sutton as drawn at least 10 targets in four of the last five games. While it might not be the most favorable matchup, the price is more than fair for Bo Nix's No. 1 WR. Troy Franklin ($4,900) and Pat Bryant ($3,900) can be considered for GPPs; I prefer Bryant as he's been more involved of late and is $1,000 cheaper. 

Khalil Shakir ($5,100) is viable in any format after catching all 12 of his targets for 82 yards last week. Expect him to be heavily involved again from the slot, with All-Pro corner Patrick Surtain manning the outside. Brandin Cooks ($4,000) has emerged as Buffalo's top deep threat and can be considered if rostering Allen. 

Keep an eye out for news on Ricky Pearsall ($4,800), who's missed the last two games with a lingering PCL injury. If he's healthy enough to be active, I'm willing to roster him due to Kittle's absence. If he's out again, Demarcus Robinson ($4,400) stepped up in his place with six catches for 111 yards and a score in last week's win over Philly. 

Tight End

Jake Tonges at SEA ($3,400): Tonges will start in place of Kittle, and he's been serviceable when called upon in the past. He caught seven of nine targets a couple weeks ago against the Bears and had a two-game stretch early in the season when he caught 13 of 18 targets. Regardless, he's underpriced for a starting TE in a Kyle Shanahan/Brock Purdy led offense. It's a difficult matchup, but the Niners will likely be playing from behind. 

AJ Barner ($3,600) projects similarly to Tonges if you'd rather play the Seattle side. He has at least three catches in five of the last six games and lines up under center when they run QB sneaks on 4th and short. 

I like Dalton Kincaid ($4,300) as leverage in GPPs, with or without Allen. He's the only TE on the slate with WR-type upside, showcased earlier in the season with a couple of 100-yard games. Healthy now, we could see Allen lean on him as he lacks weapons at WR. 

Defense/Special Teams

• Seattle Seahawks vs. SF ($3,200)

Seattle clearly projects the best of the four DST. They have a great unit and just held San Francisco to three points in Week 18. The position is extremely variable, however, and the cheaper defenses will be less popular, making them fine options for tournaments.