This article is part of our Monday Night DFS Breakdown series.
This is our Monday Night Football DFS strategy breakdown for Week 16 as the home-team Indianapolis Colts face the San Francisco 49ers.
The wacky Philip Rivers Reboot returns with its second episode Monday, when the 10-4 San Francisco 49ers hit the road to face the 8-6 Indianapolis Colts. The Colts' season was unfairly derailed by ridiculously bad injury luck, most notably to Daniel Jones, but for the 49ers this is a very serious game for playoff considerations. Even at 10-4 the 49ers remain third in their division behind the Seahawks and Rams, yet with a win here the 49ers would still have a shot at winning the NFC West.
The over/under is at 46.0 with the 49ers favored by 5.5 points.
QUARTERBACK
You won't get many more chances to pick Philip Rivers ($8800 DK, $10200 FD) on a fantasy lineup card, but there's a good chance picking Rivers at this point would sooner be useful for ironic purposes than fantasy production. The 44-year-old was 18 of 27 for 120 yards, one touchdown and one interception last week, and while the 49ers are likely an easier matchup than the Seahawks defense there still is a lot working against Rivers. If he can post quality numbers in this game then it would be inspiring and borderline hilarious at the same time.
Brock Purdy ($10400 DK, $11800 FD) has the much higher projection of the two quarterbacks, and in this matchup he's fortunate enough to catch the Colts defense without its two excellent corners in Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward. In a game that could otherwise be lean on yardage and touchdowns, Purdy is not an easy fade against a compromised Colts defense.
RUNNING BACK
Christian McCaffrey ($11800 DK, $13000 FD) and Jonathan Taylor ($11000 DK, $12600 FD) might seem difficult to budget at once but in a game where the Indianapolis passing game projects poorly it would be reasonable to pick both high-priced running backs. It's possible Taylor has a bad game, but if he does the Colts would likely be a total wipeout. Going with Taylor and just 49ers otherwise therefore makes sense, but it also makes sense to pick McCaffrey, Taylor and Ameer Abdullah ($2400 DK, $3600 FD) on a single lineup card, because Abdullah seems likely to catch the checkdowns thrown by Rivers, and rest assured Rivers will need to do a lot of checking down. Rivers always checked down a ridiculous amount to running backs – recall Danny Woodhead, Austin Ekeler and even Nyheim Hines with Rivers – and that feature has only become more prominent with this 44-year-old version of Rivers.
Brian Robinson ($3000 DK, $5400 FD) has a legitimate case for consideration especially if you're fading McCaffrey, but even if McCaffrey gets a big workload there has often been room for Robinson to secure eight carries off the bench. If the Colts really get flattened then that number could go up.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
There could be some differentiation utility in using the Colts pass catchers – their ownership numbers will be low by their customary standards – but it really is difficult to justify paying for players like Michael Pittman ($7400 DK, $8400 FD), Tyler Warren ($6600 DK, $7600 FD) or especially Alec Pierce ($7000 DK, $8600 FD) if it gets in the way of budgeting for George Kittle ($8400 DK, $11200 FD) or Jauan Jennings ($8000 DK, $9400 FD).
There could be value in picking Kendrick Bourne ($4400 DK, $7200 FD) or/and Demarcus Robinson ($4000 DK, $4800 FD) with Ricky Pearsall out, as both wideouts should play at least 30 snaps here.
Josh Downs ($5600 DK, $6600 FD) might actually be the best value among Colts pass catchers, primarily because he's cheaper but also because as an underneath target he's a candidate to see some of the checkdown spamming that Rivers will almost certainly employ here and in any other game.
KICKER
Both kickers on this slate warrant serious consideration.
Although the Colts offense doesn't project very well here, it's not that easy to dismiss Blake Grupe ($4600 DK, $6200 FD), who very well could prove to be the best per-dollar value among the Colts options. Grupe always demonstrated uncommon range despite his otherwise struggles with the Saints in 2025, but so far the accuracy issue that plagued Grupe in New Orleans haven't carried over to the Colts. Quite the contrary – Grupe has made all five of his field goals with the Colts, including two of two from beyond 50, including one 60-yard kick last week. Grupe posted 15.0 fantasy points against the Seahawks and that 50-plus range could prove relevant here.
Eddy Pineiro ($5000 DK, $6800 FD) is not quite as rangy as Grupe but boasts excellent field-goal accuracy in 2025, making all 25 of his field goal attempts and all six from beyond 50 yards. It's puzzling that Pineiro somehow missed four of his 26 extra-point attempts, but he still has a whopping eight games with double-digit fantasy points this year. Pineiro is not an easy fade here.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Either or both defenses have a shot at cashing utility here, but for the Colts ($3400 DK, $6000 FD) especially that looks difficult to manage. The Indianapolis defense is rattled by injuries and the struggles of their offense means they're liable to get stuck with short fields and long stretches of play without rest.
The 49ers ($4800 DK, $7000 FD) seem like the better option of the two, though even in their case it's not easy to identify where the points will occur. Even if the Colts are held to a low point total, Rivers doesn't seem likely to commit too many turnovers, and his insistence on quickly checking down makes it difficult to accumulate sacks. With that said, the Colts do not project especially well from scrimmage in this game.
