This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks: 
Cowboys vs. 
Commanders Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 17
Cap off the NFL Week 17 action with our NFL picks for Christmas Day. The Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) travel to Washington to take on the Commanders (4-11) in a NFC East matchup on Christmas Day. The Commanders are coming in off a 29-18 loss at home to the Eagles. While the Cowboys are on a three-game losing streak and lost last week against the Chargers 34-17.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Betting Odds
- Commanders +7.0 (FanDuel -105) / Cowboys -7.0 (DraftKings -105)
- Commanders ML (Bet365 +275) / Cowboys ML (BetRivers -315)
- Total OVER 50.5 (FanDuel -106) / UNDER 51.0 (Bet365 -110)
- Commanders total points: Over 20.5 (DraftKings -120) / Under 21.5 (BetRivers -114)
- Cowboys total points: Over 28.5 (BetRivers -115) / Under 29.5 (DraftKings -105)
- First-half spread: Commanders +4.5 (FanDuel -120) / Cowboys -3.5 (BetMGM -115)
- First-half total: Over 25.5 (Fanatics -115) / Under 25.5 (BetRivers -106)
- First-half team total:
- Commanders Over/Under 10.5 (BetRivers +120/-152)
- Cowboys Over/Under 14.5 (BetRivers -109/-121)
- Weather - 43 degrees, no wind/rain
The Commanders opened as 5.5-point home favorites, and it reopened Cowboys at -3 for a 8.5 point line move. It has since moved up to -3.5, -4.5, -5.5, -6, -6.5, and now 7. So, clearly oddsmakers are in a very tough position with so much exposure on Dallas. The Commanders' quarterback situation is the reason for the sharp line move as Marcus Mariota is listed as questionable (did not practice Tuesday). Josh Johnson is likely to be the starting quarterback.
The total line move is now 12.5 making it one of the highest I have seen in recent memory.
The total opened at 48.5 and reopened on December 16th at 51.5. It has bounced around all week from 49.5 - 52.5 before settling at 50.5
The majority of the bets (66 percent) have come in on the Cowboys, and the handle is 75 percent on Dallas also, which is indicative of where the SHARP money is coming from.
The total has 56 percent of bets, and the money is 62 percent on the OVER. The moneyline is on the Cowboys at 83 percent of the bets, and 65 percent of the money.
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Key Injuries
| Washington Commanders | ||
| NAME | POS | STATUS |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | Questionable |
| Laremy Tunsil | OT | Questionable |
| Nick Bellore | LB | Questionable |
| Bobby Wagner | LB | Questionable |
| Daron Payne | DT | Questionable |
| Dallas Cowboys | ||
| NAME | POS | STATUS |
| Quinnen Williams | DT | Questionable |
| Tyler Guyton | OT | Questionable |
| Caelen Carson | CB | Questionable |
| Donovan Wilson | S | Questionable |
| DeMarvion Overshown | LB | Questionable |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | Questionable |
| KaVontae Turpin | WR | Questionable |
| Tyler Booker | G | Questionable |
| Javonte Williams | RB | Questionable |
You can follow all the NFL injury news here at RotoWire.
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Commanders vs. Cowboys Betting Picks
BETTING TRENDS
- Cowboys are 14-1 to the OVER in the 1st Half
- Cowboys are 7-0 to the OVER in the 1st Half on the ROAD
- Dallas is 11-4 to the OVER on their team totals
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas' last 6 games.
- Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games against Washington.
- Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Washington.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas' last 5 games on the road.
- Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games.
- Washington is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games against Dallas.
NFL Team Rankings
| Offensive Rankings (Through Week 16) | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | Washington Commanders | |
| Total Yardage | 2nd (393.1 YPG) | 20th (321.1 YPG) |
| Points Scored | 5th (28.3 PPG) | 24th (20.6 PPG) |
| Rushing Yardage | 17th (118.8 YPG) | 4th (133.9 YPG) |
| Passing Yardage | 1st (274.3 YPG) | 24th (187.2 YPG) |
| Defensive Rankings (Through Week 16) | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | Washington Commanders | |
| Total Yardage Allowed | 30th (380.1 YPG) | 31st (382.7 YPG) |
| Points Allowed | 31st (30.3 PPG) | 27th (26.9 PPG) |
| Rushing Yardage Allowed | 20th (122.3 YPG) | 29th (141.0 YPG) |
| Passing Yardage Allowed | 32nd (257.8 YPG) | 26th (241.7 YPG) |
Commanders vs. Cowboys Best Bets
- Cowboys/Commanders OVER 25.5 1H for 0.5 unit
- Cowboys OVER 14.5 1H for 0.5 unit
- CeeDee Lamb OVER 5.5 receptions (FanDuel -130) for 1 unit
Commanders vs. Cowboys Predictions
The Cowboys are an OVER machine because of their strong offense and weak defense, regardless of who is at quarterback for the Commanders. I am staying away from the full game side, because I do not know if they will pull Dak Prescott again. But, as you can see, I like this game OVER in several different ways.
