This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Why Betting the Bills Over 12.5 Wins Is Worth the Risk
At first glance, betting the Buffalo Bills' win total (over 12.5 wins is +132 at Caesars Sportsbook) might seem aggressive- after all, it's the highest win total in the league. But given their consistent dominance in the regular season, it's a wager worth targeting in NFL win totals 2025.
Buffalo has won at least 11 games in each of the last five seasons:
2020: 13-3
2021: 11-6
2022: 13-4
2023: 11-6
2024: 13-4
That trend of sustained success shows a high floor, and the upside to clear 12.5 is absolutely on the table.
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Bills Schedule Projects Favorably
The Bills open the season against Baltimore and face the Chiefs in Week 9, though Buffalo has had Kansas City's number in the regular season. The Week 17 home matchup against the Eagles is another major test, but all four of their toughest games (Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, and Bengals) are home games or matchups, where the Bills have been dominant.
The rest of the schedule? Manageable. And if the Bills want to make the Super Bowl, they know home-field advantage is essential. With both the Chiefs and Ravens in contention, Buffalo will likely need 13 wins to secure that top seed, which makes the over not just possible, but necessary.
Check out all 32 NFL win totals for this season with the best NFL odds for each team at the best NFL betting sites
Allen Keeps the Offense Among the Elite
Josh Allen remains one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league. He continues to perform at a high level regardless of the names around him. While Buffalo's pass-catching unit may not include elite receivers, Allen thrives with competent route-runners and a reliable offensive line.
The offensive line has quietly become one of the most effective in the league, giving Allen time and creating consistent push in the run game. This balance keeps defenses honest and prevents opponents from keying in on one aspect of the offense.
A Defense That Doesn't Have to Be Elite
Head coach Sean McDermott has consistently fielded a top-tier defense that excels against the pass. Buffalo's rotating cast of pass rushers and experienced secondary help keep explosive plays to a minimum. The best part? With Allen running the offense, the defense doesn't have to be perfect, they just have to make timely stops, which they've done for years.
Betting Recommendation
The Bills have the proven track record, top-end quarterback play, and favorable home schedule to support a 13-win season. While betting an over this high is never a guarantee, Buffalo's upside and urgency to grab the AFC's top seed make this one of the more compelling NFL win projections to back.
Prediction: 13-4 or better. Bet: Over 12.5 wins (+132 at Caesars).
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