This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Playoffs Picks: Broncos vs. Bills Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for NFL Divisional Round
The NFL kicks off the Divisional Round with the Broncos hosting the Bills on Saturday afternoon. In this article, we will break down the NFL odds and detail our best bets for the showdown at Mile High.
After pulling off a win against the Jaguars last weekend, the Bills will look to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the second straight season. Let's examine the betting options for this matchup and highlight three wagers to consider.
Mike Barner's season record: 52-46 (-4.43 units)
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Broncos vs. Bills Betting Odds
Broncos: Spread -1.5 (-102), -114 Moneyline (BetRivers)
Bills: Spread +1.5 (-118), -102 Moneyline (FanDuel)
Game Total: 45.5 points (DraftKings)
The Bills placed Gabe Davis on injured reserve after he tore his ACL last week against the Jaguars. They could get back Curtis Samuel (elbow), who has not played since Week 11. Following their bye in the first round, the Broncos enter this matchup with no offensive players of note on their injury report.
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NFL Playoffs Props: Broncos vs. Bills
Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer (-105 FanDuel) for 1 Unit
Allen continues to will the Bills to wins. In addition to throwing for 273 yards and one touchdown against the Jaguars, he ran 11 times for 33 yards and two touchdowns. During the regular season, he scored at least one rushing touchdown in a game eight times. That included five games with multiple scores on the ground.
Allen has scored at least one rushing touchdown in five of his last seven playoff games. Over those seven games, he received eight carries from inside the five-yard line. As good as James Cook III has been, Allen trusts himself more than he does anyone else when the team is on the brink of scoring. At these odds, I'll happily take a chance on him reaching the end zone again.
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Bo Nix over 22.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel) for 1 Unit
Allen isn't the only quarterback in this game who can do damage with his legs. In his rookie season, Nix ran 92 times for 430 yards. This year, he turned 83 carries into 356 yards. In six of his games, he ran for at least 24 yards. That included five games with a minimum of 33 yards on the ground.
The Bills struggled to stop quarterbacks from racking up rushing yards this season. They permitted 6.69 yards per carry to the position, which was more than any other team. When they faced Trevor Lawrence last week, he ran for 31 yards on six rushing attempts. This is a favorable spot for Nix to have similar success.
Brandin Cooks over 27.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel) for 1 Unit
When Cooks first came over from the Saints, he didn't do much within the Bills' offense. However, the Bills played him 39 offensive snaps in Week 17 against the Eagles, and he came through with four receptions for 101 yards on six targets. After resting him in Week 18, Cooks stepped up in the playoffs with three receptions for 58 yards last week. His five targets were tied for the second-most on the team.
Even if Samuel comes back, the loss of Davis can provide a boost for Cooks. Outside of Khalil Shakir, the Bills don't have great options at wide receiver. They appear to have lost faith in Keon Coleman, who was targeted just one time against the Jaguars. With the potential for Cooks to reach five targets again, the over is the way to go here.
Broncos vs. Bills Prediction
The Bills and Broncos met in the playoffs last season, and the Bills won easily, 31-7. That game was in Buffalo, where the Bills usually have a massive advantage. This rematch in Denver puts the Broncos in a better spot to emerge with the win. Still, I'm having a difficult time taking Nix over Allen. This could come down to the final minutes, and if it does, the more experienced Bills can pull out the win.
Bills 24, Broncos 21
