This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks and Predictions: New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Patriots are one of the most captivating stories in either conference. They make a trip south to test their mettle against an NFC contender in the Buccaneers, which still have injury concerns coming out of their Week 9 bye.
With another big test on tap for Mike Vrabel's squad, we dig into best bets to consider.
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New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Patriots +123 (BetRivers) / Buccaneers -142 (DraftKings)
- Point spread: Patriots +2.5 (DraftKings) / Buccaneers -2.5 (DraftKings)
- Totals: Over 48 points (BetMGM) / Under 48.5 points (DraftKings)
The Buccaneers have been a favorite in this game since before Week 9 action. Even with New England squeezing out a win over the Falcons and Tampa Bay's injury situation not really getting any better, the number has consistently bounced between 2.5 and 3 points.
Meanwhile, the total has been the epitome of stability, remaining between 48 and 48.5 since before Week 9 action.
Check updated NFL odds to find the best prices for your favorite bets all season.
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New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Picks
Even a Week 9 bye wasn't enough to give the injury-weary Buccaneers some reprieve on that front. Mike Evans remains on injured reserve due to his broken collarbone; Jalen McMillan carries the same designation due to his preseason neck injury; and, both Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot) and Chris Godwin (fibula) are already confirmed for another absence Sunday, even though there had been some optimism at least one of them would be available by this point.
It all adds up to a precarious situation for Todd Bowles' offense, even with the rest advantage and the homefield edge. Baker Mayfield has often done an admirable job of navigating difficult circumstances stemming from personnel shortages, but that naturally becomes much more of an uphill battle against a quality team like the Mike Vrabel-coached Patriots, led by one of the game's most dynamic young QBs in Drake Maye.
New England is missing a key piece in its own right in Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), but it's in cases like these where their very egalitarian approach to the passing attack pays dividends. There's plenty of experienced depth to step up in the absence of a key receiver, as Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas and promising rookie Kyle Williams are on hand to help fill the void.
New England's defense is also a critical part of prognosticating this game. Vrabel unsurprisingly has that side of the ball playing very well. The Pats have proven adept at making teams one-dimensional by surrendering a league-low 75.4 rushing yards per game, including 59.3 in the last three contests. Much to the chagrin of opponents, passing against the Pats is also getting more difficult, as a healthy Christian Gonzalez has helped New England surrender only 192.7 passing yards per game in the last three contests, along with a 64.2 percent completion rate in that span.
The Bucs are almost certainly going to keep this very competitive, but the Patriots currently have the collective personnel advantage. I expect a slim New England victory as I detail in my game prediction below, but at minimum, I'm in the camp of them keeping any loss very narrow.
Patriots vs. Buccaneers Best Bets:
- Patriots +2.5 (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Under 48.5 points (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Patriots vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Patriots 24, Buccaneers 21
The Patriots have a balanced, well-coached team that is already 4-0 on the road, and they're going to be facing what is once again an injury-hampered squad. The Buccaneers are a tough out irrespective of what personnel they have on the field, but New England has proven its mettle and ability to pull out close games and could have enough here to squeeze out a close victory.
