This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Betting Picks and Predictions for Bengals vs. Bills
An important late-season battle between two prolific quarterbacks unfolds at Highmark Stadium, and we dive into best bets and props to consider.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Bengals +230 (DraftKings) / Bills -270 (FanDuel)
- Point spread: Bengals +6 (BetMGM) / Bills -5.5 (BetRivers)
- Totals: Over 52.5 points (FanDuel) / Under 53.5 (DraftKings)
The spread for this game has notably narrowed since it's pre-Week 13 figure, going from a -7 at that point all the way to as low as 5.5 at some sportsbooks entering the weekend. The fact the Bengals were able to upset the Ravens on the road on Thanksgiving and Joe Burrow looked fairly crisp in his return certainly played a role. Even the Bills' own 26-7 win over the Steelers the subsequent Sunday didn't deter bettors off Cincy.
The total has seen some gyration, as it stood at 53.5 before Week 13 kicked off, dipped as low as 51.5 early in the week this week, and then got back as high as 53.5 at some sportsbooks. Tee Higgins' confirmed return from a concussion may have played a part, considering he rounds out Burrow's receiving corps and takes some defensive attention off Ja'Marr Chase.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Picks
The fourth-ever meeting between Burrow and Allen unfolds in this likely snowy matchup, with the Bengals quarterback holding a 2-1 head-to-head edge (counting the shortened January 2023 game where Damar Hamlin suffered his cardiac emergency). The fact Burrow owns a playoff win in wintery conditions at Highmark Stadium back in January 2023 – and a convincing 27-10 one at that – speaks to Joe Cool's ability to pull off big wins in hostile conditions.
This Sunday's setting fits that description. On this occasion, Burrow goes into the game with a rest advantage, a full game under his belt after a long layoff, and a full-strength receiving corps thanks to the return of Higgins. However, those edges are partly offset by the ample questions surrounding his defense. Cincy checks in allowing an NFL-high 410 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play, helping lead to a league-high 31.2 points per contest surrendered.
While the Bengals' D has actually been slightly better on the road, it will be missing Trey Hendrickson (hip) once again Sunday. Plus it faces a daunting opponent in Allen, even if the reigning MVP sometimes has to take matters into his own hands due to the inconsistencies of his pass-catching corps.
One key weapon for Buffalo through both the ground and air is James Cook. He faces a unit that's given up an AFC-high 5.2 RB yards per carry and sports No. 30 and No. 26 rankings in second-level (1.44) and open-field yards (1.06) per carry allowed. Cook's ability to move the chains and take any touch to the house could certainly loom large in what could be tricky terrain for an already vulnerable defense.
Ultimately, we're going to see some offense here given the talent on either side, but there could be some extenuating circumstances that conspire to keep the scoring under the projected total. I'll keep my attention focused on Burrow keeping this close enough to cover the six-point spread, and a very reachable prop for Cook is also in play.
Bengals vs. Bills Best Bets:
- Bengals +6 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- James Cook Over 113.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bengals vs. Bills Prediction
Bills 27, Bengals 23
As already mentioned, there should be some points scored in this game, and both ground games are teed up for some success. The lack of overall cohesion in Buffalo's air attack paired with the Bills' own talented secondary and the possibility of snow should help suppress scoring to an extent, but I see the home team getting a close victory.
