Beating the Book: NFL Wild Card Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Wild Card Weekend edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

With the regular season now behind us, this week we'll have picks for all six games on NFL Wild Card Weekend.

First things first, we finished a chaotic Week 18 with an 8-8 ATS mark, hitting on the Steelers +3.5 on Sunday night to cap off an up-and-down regular season on somewhat of a high note. With that win, Pittsburgh clinched the AFC North and set up a home matchup against the Texans on Monday night.

While that may not be the game I'm most looking forward to watching, it should be the last in a string of competitive games to open the postseason. With the exception of Rams-Panthers, which kicks things off on Saturday afternoon, the rest of the is packed with closely-lined games – four of which currently hold a spread of 3.5 points or fewer.

You can find all of my NFL Wild Card Weekend picks and score predictions below. As always, our best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 18:

• Vikings -7.5 vs. Packers: This line ended up moving significantly toward Minnesota by kickoff, and the Packers' effort level was somehow even lower than we expected.
• Steelers +3.5 vs. Ravens: Baltimore profiled as the better team, but if you're giving me 3.5 in a Steelers-Ravens game, I'm taking the points.

Worst calls of Week 18:

• Titans +12.5 at Jaguars: After Tennessee jumped out to an early 7-0 lead, the Jags promptly ended the game on a 41-0 run.
• Bears -3.0 vs. Lions: I was too much of a coward to take the Lions in an obvious "of course Dan Campbell wants to win this game" scenario.

Last week: 8-8 ATS; 10-6 SU; best bet won (SEA -1.5)

On the season: 136-130-6 ATS; 176-95-1 SU; 9-9 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Saturday Slate

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Rams -10.0

Total: 46.5

This is, of course, a rematch of one of the most chaotic and surprising games of the regular season when the Rams traveled to Charlotte in Week 13 as 10.5-point favorites. Despite putting up 28 points, ripping off 7.4 yards per play and posting their best offensive success rate of the season, the Rams found a way to lose that game 31-28 behind three killer turnovers, including a Matthew Stafford pick-six.

Since then, the Rams have mostly righted the ship, though they did drop back-to-back games against Seattle and Atlanta in Weeks 16 and 17, perhaps casting some level of doubt on their status as the most-complete team in the NFL. I will readily admit that this Rams team is far from invincible, but I still view the Rams as the team to beat in the NFC – partially because of this Wild Card matchup against the worst team in the playoff field.

All due respect to Dave Canales and the Panthers for finding a way to emerge from the NFC South, but it wasn't exactly a convincing run through the division. While the Panthers have a handful of signature wins, they also took some signature losses and ultimately finished the regular season with a minus-69 point differential – worse than the 4-13 Giants.

As much as I may not believe in this team, we can't completely write off the Panthers, who have a solid defense that's been able to force timely turnovers all season. The defensive backfield, in particular, could make life difficult on Stafford, as it did in Week 13, but the fact that Carolina already upset the Rams once may work against them. In essence, the Rams aren't going to take this team lightly, as they may have during the regular season.

With Davante Adams back in the mix, and the Panthers likely not winning the turnover battle 3-0, we'll ride with the Rams to cruise to a win.

The pick: Rams 30 – Panthers 14

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Spread: Packers -1.5

Total: 45.5

With Rams-Panthers out of the way, now we get into the real meat and potatoes of the Wild Card slate. As an impartial observer, I will be more than happy to spend my Saturday night watching a rubber match between the Bears and Packers, who split their two regular season meetings in fittingly dramatic fashion.

While the Bears' win over the Malik Willis-led Packers in Week 16 went a long way toward sewing up the division, neither team is exactly rolling into the postseason. Green Bay has dropped four in a row, losing Micah Parsons in the process and essentially opting to full-on punt its Week 18 matchup against the Vikings in the name of self-preservation.

Meanwhile, the Bears took a high-scoring loss to the Niners in Week 17 before playing starters and coming up short against the Lions in Week 18. As usual, the Bears rallied back late and nearly stole a win, but failing to score a single point through three quarters on a battered Lions defense was not exactly an inspiring ramp-up performance.

All of this preamble is to say that this feels like a true toss-up game between very evenly matched teams. With a healthy Parsons, and/or Davante Wyatt/Tucker Kraft, I see the Packers as the better team. But the Parsons injury may prove insurmountable for Green Bay, which was bludgeoned by the Ravens' running game just two weeks ago.

With Jordan Love back in the mix, I do expect Green Bay to be able to score, but the Bears' running game should be well-positioned to move it on the suddenly-extremely-shaky Packers defense. Home field is the deciding factor for me, but no result would be a surprise. The one thing I know for certain is that this will be a thoroughly weird game that both teams – and both fan bases – expect to win.

The pick: Bears 27 – Packers 24

Sunday Slate

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Bills -1.5

Total: 51.5

I'll say this: as a card-carrying Jaguars fan, it's a very strange and foreign feeling to go into a playoff game – or to just be in the playoffs at all – expecting to win. Especially when that game is against the reigning MVP.

Much like Packers-Bears, this is a closely lined game where both teams should rightfully feel confident heading in. The Bills, of course, have Josh Allen and a wealth of postseason experience, while the numbers – and record – say the Jags are the more complete team.

During the Jags' eight-game winning streak to end the regular-season, much of the focus has rightfully been on Trevor Lawrence's remarkable turnaround. But the Jags' defense has been one constant this season, finishing third in EPA per play and sixth in opponent success rate. Jacksonville will be counting on that unit to slow down the Bills' offense, and particularly a running game that ranks as the second-most-efficient in the NFL. 

If the Jags can do that, this is a game they should win. They'll still need Lawrence to play at a high level and continue avoiding mistake – far from a lock, admittedly – but the Bills' defense has proven plenty vulnerable this season and will be without a few key pieces, including Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips and Maxwell Hairston.

Ultimately, this game will come down to Lawrence. While the Bills profile as a good matchup for the Jags' ground attack, Jacksonville ranks just 22nd in rushing success rate and hasn't reached 125 yards as a team since Week 12. Again, if Lawrence plays a clean game, the Jags should win, but I'm not sure I'm ready to trust him to avoid the killer mistake quite yet.

The pick: Bills 27 -- Jaguars 24

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -5.5

Total: 44.5

This is the trickiest game of the week to evaluate, for me. On one hand, the Eagles are nearly fully healthy and should have defined advantages against a porous Niners defense. On the other, do we trust the Eagles' offense to actually show up? 

To the Eagles' credit, they were able to right the ship after taking three straight losses to the Cowboys, Bears and Chargers, but two of those wins came against Kenny Pickett and Josh Johnson. The other was a quality win at Buffalo, but the Eagles managed only 13 points and put up 16 total yards of offense in the second half.

For all of the Eagles' offensive question marks, the defense has consistently played at a high level for most of the season. With Jalen Carter back at full strength, it'll be an uphill battle for the Niners to keep Brock Purdy clean and consistently move the ball.

Just a couple weeks ago, San Francisco was rolling offensively, scoring 37, 48 and 42 points in consecutive victories. But that all came crashing down against an elite Seahawks defense last Saturday. In that 13-3 loss, which should have been worse, the Niners finished with only 173 total yards and one red zone trip while going 2-of-11 on third and fourth downs.

By default, the Niners will likely put forth a better effort this week, but I have more faith in the Eagles' defense buckling down at home and Jalen Hurts doing just enough to win a fairly ugly game.

The pick: Eagles 21 – 49ers 17

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Spread: Pats -3.5

Total: 46.5

On their path to the 2 seed, the Patriots finished the season in dominant fashion, blowing out the Jets and Dolphins by a combined score of 80 to 20 in Weeks 17 and 18. The Chargers, meanwhile, opted for a more-cautious approach, resting most of their key starters to hand the 1 seed to the Broncos in Week 18.

Given the injuries on the roster, particularly to Justin Herbert, the Chargers' strategy made sense, and they clearly were not worried about dodging a matchup at New England. The Pats' run to a 14-3 mark has been one of the stories of the season, as has the ascent of Drake Maye, but even Pats fans would admit that one of the softest schedules in recent league history has played a role. New England simply has not faced very many quality defenses.

By the time Sunday night rolls around, it will have been nearly two-and-a-half months since the Pats faced a top-10 defense. Their last matchup against such a unit came all the way back in Week 8 (Cleveland). Since then, the Pats have faced the following defenses, ranked by defensive EPA per play: 14th, 20th, 29th, 30th, 28th, 15th, 19th, 29th.

That's not to say the Patriots' success has been built entirely on the back of an easy schedule, but this will be a major step-up in competition for the Pats, who've faced one (1) playoff team in its last 12 games.

The Chargers' defense has been among the best units in the NFL all season, finishing top-eight in success rate, as well as EPA per rush and EPA per pass. Over the final 10 games, the Chargers allowed only one opponent (Jacksonville) to score more than 20 points.

I wouldn't bet on the Chargers holding New England under that number, but I do see that unit giving Maye enough problems that this game comes down to the final possession or two. The absence of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater is something the Chargers will continue to play though, but it's not an insurmountable obstacle against a Pats defense that ranks 31st in hurry percentage, 26th in pressure rate and 31st in pressure rate without blitzing.

The pick: Patriots 24 – Chargers 23

Monday Night Football

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Texans -3.0

Total: 39.5

Houston has officially graduated from the Saturday afternoon slot and gets the solo standalone game to finish out Wild Card Weekend. While the Texans' decision to sit starters, including C.J. Stroud, in the second half last week tells us they were fine with the possibility of sliding to the 6 seed, they have to be thrilled with how the Battle for the AFC North played out.

Certainly, the Steelers present a certain level of devil magic that can be difficult to account for, but the Texans would likely prefer that to facing off against Derrick Henry and a healthy-ish Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. Either way, Houston sits as a field goal favorite on the road after closing the regular season on a nine-game winning streak. The Texans' offense had some splash games during that run, but as usual it was the defense that led them to key wins over Buffalo, Indianapolis, Kansas City and the Chargers down the stretch.

Entering the playoffs, Houston ranks No. 1 in EPA per play, No. 2 in success rate, No. 1 in yards allowed and No. 2 in points allowed. Finding ways to move it against that unit will be a difficult task for Pittsburgh, which has been forced to get creative with Jaylen Warren, Kenneth Gainwell and a hodge-podge mix of receivers and tight ends. Pittsburgh does get DK Metcalf back from suspension this week, but this is still an advantage spot for the Houston defense.

Like most teams, I expect Pittsburgh to struggle to get to 20 points on the Texans, so the onus will be on C.J. Stroud and Co. to do enough offensively. Houston could struggle to run the ball, but we saw last week that the Steelers can be beaten over the top with big plays through the air.

My guess is we see a relatively conservative gameplan from both teams, but I like Houston to suffocate the Steelers' offense and hit a couple of big plays to seal a "that was probably more of a grind than it should have been" victory.

The pick: Texans 21 – Steelers 16