Beating the Book: NFL Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Divisional Round edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

We came away with a 4-2 ATS mark on Wild Card Weekend, hitting on the Bears as our best bet, as well as (unfortunately) the Bills winning and covering in Jacksonville. The Chargers were probably the biggest letdown, as the defense showed up and held New England to 16 points, but the offense managed just a field goal in what devolved into a disastrous performance.

Moving on to the Divisional Round, we're presented with a four-game slate that should bring us one of the best weekends of the NFL season. On Saturday, we get started with Bills-Broncos in Denver before the Niners take on the Seahawks in the late window. Houston-New England is the early game Sunday, while Rams-Bears gets the primetime slot.

Seattle is easily the biggest favorite on the board, while the Rams are the only road favorite in the Divisional Round after we had four such situations on Wild Card Weekend.

You can find all of my NFL Divisional game picks and score predictions below. As always, our best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Wild Card Weekend:

• Bills -1.5 at Jaguars: We wrote last week that the Jags would win only "if Trevor Lawrence plays a clean game. He did not play a clean game.
• Bears +1.5 vs. Packers: An inability to close games, often behind some of the worst special teams you'll ever see, has become the Packers' identity.

Worst calls of Wild Card Weekend:

• Chargers +3.5 at Patriots: We felt good about the Chargers' defense holding up its end of the bargain, which it did, but the LA offense faceplanted in the playoffs for the second year in a row.
• Rams -10.0 at Panthers: Credit to Carolina for once again going score-for-score against a Rams team that was pushed to the absolute brink.

Last week: 4-2 ATS; 5-1 SU; best bet won (CHI +1.5)

On the season: 140-132-6 ATS; 181-96-1 SU; 10-9 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Saturday Slate

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -1.5

Total: 46.5

Heading into Wild Card Weekend, I firmly believed the Jaguars were the better, more well-rounded team. But the argument for the Bills was quite simply, "they have Josh Allen", and while the game was a bit more nuanced than that, Allen out-playing Trevor Lawrence was the primary reason Buffalo is flying to Denver this week.

While the Bills' defense stepped up and generated a pair of turnovers – and easily could've added another pick or two – Buffalo will once again need an elite Allen performance to knock off the top seed in the AFC. Defensively, Denver presents plenty of matchup issues for a fairly limited group of pass-catchers, but Allen did an excellent job in the Jacksonville game of picking his spots, taking what was there and continuing to move the chains against one of the better units in the AFC.

Meanwhile, the Denver offense has shown time and time again that it's capable of getting stuck in the mud against anyone. Over the final nine games of the regular season, Denver scored 22 points or less six times, including against the Raiders in Week 10 and the Chargers' backups in Week 18.

With extra time to prepare against a shaky run defense, I expect Sean Payton to find some edges, but I ultimately see this as a fairly low-scoring game, especially by Bills standards. At the end of the day, though, I don't have enough faith in the Broncos' offense to consistently move the ball through the air against a Buffalo pass defense that finished the season sixth in EPA per pass.

The pick: Bills 24 – Broncos 20

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -7.5

Total: 45.5

This is meeting number three between the Niners and Seahawks, who squared off in Week 1, then again in Week 18 with the 1 seed on the line.

A healthier version of the Niners won the first matchup, while Seattle's defense dominated in Week 18, holding San Francisco to just three points and 173 yards of total offense. Sure, the Seahawks managed only 13 points of their own, but they racked up 361 total yards – including 180 on the ground – and repeatedly left points on the board via bad red zone execution and a pair of missed field goals.

The Niners are coming off of an impressive win at Philly last week, but they lost George Kittle to a torn Achilles, adding to what's somehow been yet another year-from-hell on the injury front. The absence of Kittle is massive and will only increase the Niners' reliance on Christian McCaffrey, who was held to 92 yards on 30 carries in the first two Seahawks matchups. Of course, CMC did have 15 receptions in those games, and he'll once again need to be a major factor in the passing game for the Niners to have any chance of winning this game.

Ultimately, I see the Niners struggling against an elite defense, but the result will come down to whether the Seahawks are capable of exploiting what's been a very gettable San Francisco defense. It showed up against Philly, but to me that was more about the Eagles definitively proving their offense is not back, as opposed to a reversal of what we've seen from the Niners over the last month.

Keep an eye on the Seattle running game, as well. Ideally, the Seahawks aren't putting this game on the arm of Sam Darnold. For much of the year, Seattle has struggled to run effectively, but they closed the regular season with three of their four best ground games of the season in wins over the Rams, Panthers and Niners.

I have enough faith in Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh that they can make this a close game, but as long as Sam Darnold can avoid the killer mistake(s), Seattle can win by a touchdown at home.

The pick: Seahawks 24 – 49ers 17

Sunday Slate

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Spread: Pats -3.0

Total: 40.5

Houston's defense has been perhaps the most-ferocious unit in the league, finishing first in total yards allowed during the regular season and putting up not one but two defensive touchdowns in Monday night's 30-6 dismantling of Pittsburgh. The Texans have now won 10 straight games, with their defense forcing turnovers and creating short fields for an offense that's been inconsistent but opportunistic.

Meanwhile, the Pats' defense held the Chargers to just 207 total yards in the Wild Card round, helping offset a two-turnover performance from Drake Maye and the Pats' lowest-scoring game since Week 3. While the Pats scored only 16 points, they did pile up 381 yards of offense, including 146 yards on the ground, continuing a late-season surge in rushing production.

With two conservative, defensive-minded coaches in Mike Vrabel and DeMeco Ryans, I expect this to be another slower-paced, lower-scoring game. Both offenses struggled with ball security last week, and that could again be an issue. Playing at home, I expect more of a bounceback out of Maye than I do C.J. Stroud, who will likely be without his top target in Nico Collins.

My favorite play is the U40.5 – and the first-half U19.5 – but we'll side with New England to do just enough to grind out another fairly ugly win.

The pick: Patriots 21 – Texans 17

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

Spread: Rams -3.5

Total: 49.5

Chicago has made a living off fourth-quarter heroics this season, and its track record in tight games continues to look more and more impressive. The Bears are 7-3 in games decided by five points or fewer, including their Wild Card comeback against Green Bay where they erased an 18-point deficit.

The Rams, meanwhile, have shown vulnerability in these exact scenarios. They blew a 26-7 lead to Philadelphia and surrendered a 30-14 fourth-quarter advantage to Seattle during the regular season. Los Angeles needed a touchdown with 38 seconds left just to escape Carolina as 10.5-point favorites last week. 

I'm still a firm believer that the Rams are the better team, but the defense has shown some significant cracks, and I would expect the Bears to get off to a stronger start than last week, when they trailed 21-3 at the half. 

The weather could also be a significant factor on Sunday evening, with real-feel temperatures projected to dive below zero degrees alongside sustained winds. It will be far and away the coldest game of the season for the Rams and Matthew Stafford, who doesn't exactly have a sterling track record in these scenarios. Over the last 22 seasons, 13 dome teams have played an outdoor playoff game on the road in sub-freezing temperatures. Those teams went 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS.

I'll still be semi-surprised if the Rams lose this game straight up, but given their leaky secondary, and an increasingly concerning special teams unit, we'll side with the Bears to keep this within a field goal and certainly threaten to win outright.

The pick: Rams 24 – Bears 21