This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Gasparilla Bowl Best Bets: Memphis vs. NC State
The Memphis Tigers (8-4) and the NC State Wolfpack (7-5-0) meet at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Friday at 2:30 p.m. EST for the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl. The game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN.
The Tigers stumbled to the finish line of the American Conference after a hot start, while the Wolfpack finished up strong in the Atlantic Coast Conference with a victory over Florida State, and a rout of rival North Carolina in the regular-season finale.
Of course, with bowl games in this day and age, we have opt-outs, portal news, and draft declarations, so we'll give in to those and try to give you the best information for your pick on Friday. Let's get started!
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Memphis vs. NC State Gasparilla Bowl Betting Odds
Spread: Memphis +3.5 (BetMGM); NC State -3.5 (Fanatics Sportsbook)
Total: Over 56.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 57.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Memphis +146 (Caesars Sportsbook); NC State -164 (NC State)
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Memphis vs. NC State Gasparilla Bowl Betting Picks
The Tigers and Wolfpack have never met on the college football gridiron, but that all changes Friday afternoon.
First off, Memphis lost head coach Ryan Silverfield in the coaching carousel, as he took the same job at the University of Arkansas. Assistant head coach Reggie Howard takes over as the interim coach. In addition, CB Samson Israel, who had 17 tackles and an interception, has elected to hit the transfer portal.
For NC State, the portal news has been a bit substantial, with a couple of big offensive pieces hitting the road. Leading rusher RB Hollywood Smothers, who racked up 939 rushing yards and seven total scores, has entered the transfer portal. DT Brandon Cleveland, CB Devon Marshall and OT Jacarius Peak have also hit the portal. TE Justin Joly is an opt-out candidate after he had 47 receptions for 468 yards and a team-high seven scores, too.
The Wolfpack still have QB CJ Bailey, who completed 69.6 percent of his passes for 2,884 yards, 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions, while WR Terrell Anderson had a team-best 637 yards with 16.8 yards per receptions and five scores, next best after Joly. WR Noah Rogers, formerly of Rolesville (N.C.) High School and a transfer from Ohio State, had 31 catches for 404 yards and two scores. The wide receivers' room is deep, and that's how NC State will try and stay in this game.
In the run game, RB Jayden Scott had 87 carries for 487 yards, 5.6 YPC and six scores, and QB Will Wilson had a team-high nine rushing scores on 145 yards in goal-line packages. Bailey also ran for 215 yards and five scores, too.
For Memphis, QB Brendon Lewis completed 69.7 percent for 2,567 yards, 15 TDs and six INTs, while also running for 618 yards and nine touchdowns. RB Sutton Smith went for 669 yards, 6.6 YPC and seven touchdowns, while RB Greg Desrosiers Jr. had 563 yards, 5.7 YPC and seven scores on the ground. RB Frank Peasant also scored seven times, and Memphis had a total of 34 rushing TDs.
In the passing game, WR Cortez Braham Jr. rolled up 63 receptions for 889 yards and eight touchdowns, or half of the TDs via the air for Memphis. WR Jamari Hawkins led the team with 17.4 YPC, totaling 34 catches for 591 yards.
Memphis is 9-8 in bowl games, including wins in each of the past four games. The Tigers outlasted West Virginia 42-37 in the Frisco Bowl last season, and its last postseason loss came at Penn State in the Cotton Bowl Classic in 2019.
NC State doesn't have a ton of success in bowl games. It is 17-18-1, and the Wolfpack have dropped the past five appearances, including a 26-21 loss against East Carolina in the Military Bowl last Dec. 28, 2024. The Wolfpack appeared in this game when it was called the St. Petersburg Bowl, and it was played at Tropicana Field. NC State topped UCF 34-27 on Dec. 26, 2014 in that game. That was the last time the Wolfpack won a bowl game in Florida, as it has dropped the past three games since.
NC State is 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in the four games, and the Over has a 3-2 edge in the past five outings.
Memphis dropped its final three games, while going 0-3 ATS. The Over went 4-1 in the final five games, too. The best bet here is to go Over despite the fact that Smothers and Joly put a dent into NC State's offensive game plan.
Memphis vs. NC State Gasparilla Bowl Best Bet: Over 56.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Memphis vs. NC State Betting Predictions
As we look to the side, it appears Memphis will have its offense mostly intact. But that's the same offense that stumbled down the stretch, going for 22.0 PPG in the final two games, while failing to cover the final three outings.
The defense also had its issues in that three-game skid by Tulane, East Carolina and Navy, albeit three bowl teams. The D allowed 29.0 PPG in the span, so the receivers for the Wolfpack have a chance to roll up some big-time offensive numbers on the fast track at the RayJay.
NC State had its moments. It was slaughtered 41-7 by playoff team Miami on Nov. 15, showing it wasn't quite ready for primetime. But, this team also scored 34 or more points in three of the past five games, too. The defense did a decent job in the final two games, allowing 15.0 PPG in the final two home games against FSU and UNC. However, in the past four games off campus, NC State allowed 41, 53, 36 and 45. That's a problem.
Let's take Memphis with the six points.
Score Prediction: NC State 34, Memphis 30
Gasparilla Bowl Player Props Best Bets for Friday, December 19
Memphis WR Cortez Braham Jr. - Anytime TD Scorer (-130 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Braham led the team with eight receiving scores, which was exactly half of the 16 that the Tigers amassed. Memphis had just five other scorers through the air, with the next closest being TE Matt Adcock with three receiving touchdowns. In fact, the latter is also worth a roll of the dice as an Anytime TD Scorer (+700) for the chance to multiply up by seven times. Braham had a TD in the final against Navy, and seven of his eight TDs came in the final nine games. He is a scoring machine.
NC State QB Will Wilson - Anytime TD Scorer (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The true freshman Wilson set a school record with four rushing touchdowns against rival North Carolina, earning legendary status. He has had special packages in short-yardage sessions, picking up first downs on 64.1 percent of his carries, posting 25 first downs. He also had nine rushing scores, second-best in school history. He is a poor man's Jalen Hurts, and he is a player to watch in Tampa when he subs in near the goal line.
