CFP Quarterfinals: ChatGPT Simulated Results and Predictions

In the second year of the 12-team College Football Playoff, we saw some new things and a couple of predictable results.

Now the four teams that got a bye into the CFP quarterfinals will jump into action with traditional New Year's Day bowl games (and one on New Year's Eve) hosting the eight remaining programs for college football betting action.

We requested 10 simulations for each game from AI, with scores for each, using depth charts and statistics as of Dec. 22. Here are the results:

ChatGPT Predicts CFP First-Round Game Results

These results are brought to you by RotoWire.com, your source for real money sports betting promo codes for the holidays. Keep inm mind that these are our AI projections; they will differ from point spreads and from others who might attempt the same project.

Below, we break down the matchups and what AI projects for each game. All times listed below are Eastern.

Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs. Miami (7:30 p.m. Dec. 31)

The Hurricanes pulled off an upset in front of about 100,000 home fans in College Station in the first round. Now UM returns to Texas, this time Arlington, for a New Year's Eve quarterfinal.

No. 10 seed Miami only gained 278 yards on a windy day at Texas A&M but forced three turnovers, including the game-clinching interception in the final minute to stop an Aggies drive, in a 10-3 victory on Dec. 20. Mark Fletcher gained 172 yards on 10 carries. Do-everything freshman Malachi Toney was fairly quiet until Carson Beck hit him for an 11-yard touchdown pass with 1:44 left in the game.

But Beck and coach Mario Cristobal will have to find more variety in their offense against CFP futures title favorite Ohio State. The Buckeyes lead the nation in total defense at 213.5 yards per game and are fifth in rushing D, allowing 84.5 ypg on the ground. Good teams often lead by wide margins, so their stats against the pass might not be as impressive because foes are forced to throw a lot. But OSU has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (129.1) and are eighth in lowest QB efficiency for opponents (105.62).

At Caesars Sportsbook, Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite as of Dec. 22, and our AI projections reflect a similar tilt toward the No. 2 seed, as the Buckeyes won eight of 10 simulated matchups.

Orange Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Oregon (noon, Jan. 1)

No. 5 seed Oregon rolled past an overmatched opponent as expected, though no doubt some Ducks backers were annoyed about the margin against James Madison. Oregon allowed a couple of fourth-quarter touchdowns which were meaningless on the scoreboard, but those scores allowed the Sun Belt Conference champions to cover the 21-point spread in a 51-34 loss in Eugene.

Now No. 4 seed Texas Tech awaits in what might be the closest CFP quarterfinal matchup, befitting of a 4 vs. 5 game. The Red Raiders arrive in southern Florida for their New Year's Day tilt with the No. 3 total defense and fifth-ranked total offense in FBS.

This is the only game that's projected to be close in 10 simulated meetings. Oregon holds a 6-4 edge, according to ChatGPT. DraftKings Sportsbook has installed the Ducks, led by QB Dante Moore (above) as a 1.5-point favorite. Texas Tech is the only team with a first-round bye to be an underdog for the quarterfinal, perhaps partly because the Big 12 is not perceived to be as good as the Big Ten.

Rose Bowl: Indiana vs. Alabama (4 p.m. Jan. 1)

The Crimson Tide became the first team in a small sample of the 12-team CFP era to win a first-round game on the road, advancing on Dec. 19.

Ninth-seeded Alabama survived a 17-0 deficit in a rematch with Oklahoma, one of three teams to topple the Tide in the regular season. Coach Kalen DeBoer's team rallied to defeat the host Sooners 34-24.

Indiana enters as the No. 1 seed, the only undefeated team in FBS, and ranking in the NCAA's top five in 11 statistical categories. The Hoosiers won over a lot of doubters by defeating previous No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Now, for their first trip to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl since Jan. 1, 1968 (and only their second ever) the Hoosiers must deal with something unusual for this program: The weight of expectations when facing college football's bluest of bluebloods. Our projections have Indiana, featuring Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, winning eight simulated meetings and BetMGM Sportsbook favors IU by 7 points.

Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Mississippi (8 p.m. Jan. 1)

No. 6 seed Mississippi did just fine in its first game without Lane Kiffin, giving Pete Golding his first win as Rebels coach in a first-round matchup.

That 41-10 victory over American Conference champion Tulane on Saturday soothed a few nerves on The Grove and set up a rematch of the only game that Ole Miss lost all season. Now Georgia awaits in New Orleans, a quick trip for both fan bases for what is sure to be an electric atmosphere for this CFP quarterfinal.

The Bulldogs rallied to win the first meeting 43-35 in Athens after trailing 35-26 heading into the fourth quarter. UGA has rolled ever since, capturing the SEC Championship and the third seed in the Playoff. The Bulldogs were the second seed last year before Notre Dame stunned them 23-10 at the same venue, the Caesars Superdome in the Big Easy.

FanDuel Sportsbook lists Georgia as a 6.5-point favorite. Considering how close the first meeting was, that point spread and the 8-2 projected edge for UGA in our simulations might be a bit of a surprise. Georgia's defense is elite, but the offense is only ranked No. 44 in FBS and seventh in the SEC (Ole Miss leads the conference in offense at 498 yards per game, second in the nation). Can QB Trinidad Chambliss engineer a quarterfinal upset and keep Ole Miss churning under its new coach?

Q&A

Q: How did ChatGPT simulate College Football Playoff quarterfinals?

A: RotoWire ran 10 simulations for all four CFP quarterfinal games using ChatGPT, plugging in information for each participating team as of Dec. 22. Each game produced projected scores, giving us an average (MOV) for each team in each game.

Q: Which teams dominated the ChatGPT simulations?

A: Ohio State (against Miami), Georgia (against Ole Miss) and Indiana (vs. Alabama) all were projected to win eight of their 10 simulated matchups. OSU had the largest average margin of victory at 8.6 points.

Q: What was the closest or most balanced matchup in the simulations?

A: Oregon was projected to defeat Texas Tech in six simulated outcomes, compared to four victories for the Red Raiders, in the Orange Bowl.