This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma CFP First Round Best Bets
The Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Norman, OK, to battle the Oklahoma Sooners in the first round of the 2025 College Football Playoff. These teams are very familiar with each other after having met earlier in the season. Oklahoma came out on top during the first matchup, but there's much more at stake this time around as the winner advances and the loser goes home. We've got the odds, best bets and player props to consider for the matchup.
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Alabama vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds for CFP First Round
Spread: Alabama +1.5 (Caesars Sportsbook); Oklahoma -1 (Fanatics Sportsbook)
Total: Over 40.5 (BetMGM), Under 40.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Alabama -104 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Oklahoma -112 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The odds have flipped in this one since the line opened at Alabama -1.5, marking a point or so flip in the opposite direction of the favorite; a three-point shift overall. The total opened at 41.5 and has dropped to 40.5 in most places, indicating that the public thinks this game will be somewhat of a rock fight.
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Alabama vs. Oklahoma Betting Picks for CFP First Round
With Alabama's inclusion in the playoff and the fact that the committee kept the Crimson Tide at number nine, we get a rematch of a game that we saw just over a month ago. That's both good and bad, however. The good is that we have recent history to look back at, which could help us handicap this game. The bad is that we just saw this gam,e and I'm not sure many wanted to see a rematch this quickly.
Let's take a quick look back at what happened in the first matchup. The first half was pretty exciting, with Oklahoma getting out early, followed by a strong stretch from Alabama that saw the Tide down three at the half. The second half slowed down significantly, with the teams combining for just 13 points. In the end, Oklahoma won 23-21, but a look at the box score makes you wonder how the Sooners pulled it off.
The Sooners threw for just 138 yards and averaged just 2.6 yards per carry, so how did they win? The answer to how they won this game, and quite frankly, most of their games this season, was defense and turnovers. More specifically, in this game, it was turnovers as the Tide turned it over three times, while the Sooners didn't turn the ball over at all.
That was the head-to-head, but what about their entire resumes?
As I mentioned earlier, the Sooners get after it on defense, and for this team to be successful, they really need that defense to be elite. They rank 5th in yards allowed per game on the ground and 31st in passing yards allowed. On offense, it's pretty ugly, however, as the Sooners rank 62nd through the air and 106th on the ground.
Alabama, meanwhile, has a better balance. On defense, the Tide rank 36th against the run and 7th against the pass. The offense is not balanced, however, ranking 22nd through the air and 117th on the ground.
On paper, Alabama has the edge. Oklahoma is stout against the run, but the Tide have no interest in running the ball. On the other side, the Sooners can't run the ball, which plays into Alabama's strength on defense.
With that in mind, we have a conundrum. Basing this pick on what happened in the last game, and the team stats, I'd be fully on Alabama's side because what are the odds that the Tide lose the turnover battle 3-0 again this game? On the other hand, Alabama isn't exactly hitting its stride coming into this game. The Tide was thumped by Georgia in the SEC Championship, and the week prior, they barely got by a pretty poor Auburn team. There's also a home-field advantage that favors Oklahoma. It's for these reasons that this game opened near a pick 'em and hasn't moved much at all.
In the end, however, there's just too much in favor of Alabama. The Tide have the advantage on paper; they've got the rematch advantage, having lost the previous game, and quite honestly, they've got the advantage of having a chip on their shoulder. Alabama was the most controversial entrant into the playoffs this year, as it was the only team with three losses, and it was routed in its final game prior to the playoff, so all the players have been hearing is how they probably shouldn't have made it. They're probably sick and tired of hearing about how they got trucked in the SEC Championship as well.
With that in mind, I'm siding with Alabama in this game, and I'll just hope the Tide don't turn the ball over as much. If they can stay within one in the turnover battle, they should win.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Expert Pick: Alabama -104 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Alabama vs. Oklahoma Predictions for CFP First Round
This is going to be quite the atmosphere on Friday in Norman. With the rehaul of the seeding for the playoff, we now get some juicy match-ups in round one, and this should be one of the better ones.
The crowd is going to have a major impact on this game, which will make things difficult for the Tide offense early in the game, so I'm expecting both teams to start slowly on offense.
Eventually, the Tide will get the pass game going, however, and they'll get out to a lead, which will put the Sooners in a bad spot as their offense is not built to come from behind.
This time around, Alabama wins the turnover battle as the Tide will be able to focus on the Sooners' passing game and create some pressure and eventually some turnovers.
In the end, this game will not be as close as the oddsmakers and public think.
Alabama 24 - Oklahoma 14
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Player Props for Friday, December 19th
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma - Over 34.5 Rush Yards (PrizePicks)
I don't feel great taking an over with anyone on the Oklahoma offense, but the lines are set so low for most of the players that one play could easily push them over, so I can't take any unders either I also thought about taking Mateer's under on passing yards, but I feel like the Sooners will be throwing most of the 2nd half, so he could surpass that number in garbage time. As for this pick, I feel that Mateer will be forced to use his legs a lot as the Sooners won't be able to run the ball and Alabama will be focused on stopping the pass. That should leave some room for Mateer to run. Alabama is only averaging 1.8 sacks per game, so we don't have to be too worried about the negative plays either.
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama - Over 237.5 Pass Yards (Underdog)
If my theory is correct, that Alabama will get out to a lead, it will be because of the passing game, which should mean that Simpson should have plenty of yards by halftime. In that scenario, game script would not be in my favor, but the fact that Alabama can't run the ball will mean that the Tide will continue to throw the ball well into the 4th quarter. That's a poor game script scenario. The other scenario, where the Tide is trailing or if it's a back-and-forth game, is even better for this play. There are many paths for Simpson to get on top of this number, as evidenced by his 326 yards the last time these two teams met.
