March Madness 2026 Preview: West Region Picks & Predictions

The NCAA Tournament West Region features the second overall seed in Arizona and five single-digit seeds that won their conference tournament. Ryan Pohle breaks it down and offers his Final Four and upset picks.

Check out the rest of RotoWire's NCAA Tournament Preview series here:

East Region NCAA Tournament Preview
West Region NCAA Tournament Preview
Midwest Region NCAA Tournament Preview
South Region NCAA Tournament Preview

It's no secret that 32-2 Arizona is the class of the region, with its 16 Quad 1 victories this season trailing only Duke. Head Coach Tommy Lloyd makes his fifth tournament appearance at the helm of the Wildcats, with this being his fourth time as a one or two seed. He'll look to alleviate doubts about his performance in the NCAA Tournament, as he has yet to make the Elite Eight. This should be an excellent opportunity to buck that trend.

Purdue is one of the five aforementioned single-digit seeds that won its conference tournament alongside Arizona (Big 12), Gonzaga (WCC), Arkansas (SEC) and Utah State (Mountain West), so there are no shortage of teams that come in with momentum. Meanwhile, High Point (Big South) is one of only six teams that reached the 30-win mark -- an impressive feat regardless of how weak its strength of schedule may be. 

After seeing minimal upsets last year, it will be interesting to see if today's NIL era continues to separate the upper-echelon Power 5 teams from the mid-majors. It seems unlikely that narrative will change this year in the West region, as the 12-16 seeds are all double-digit underdogs. 

Let's take a closer look at the players, coaches and matchups that will ultimately decide the fate of the West region.

Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest NCAA Tournament team previews for the field of 68, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.

WEST REGION NCAA TOURNAMENT FAVORITES

No. 1 Arizona – Duke edged out Arizona for the No. 1 overall seed, but the Wildcats couldn't have been far behind in the committee's eyes. After starting the season 23-0, Arizona stubbed their toe in back-to-back losses at Kansas and to Texas Tech but rebounded by winning nine in a row to claim Big 12 regular season and conference titles. Led by conference Player of the Year Jaden Bradley and star freshmen Brayden Burries and Koa Peat, Arizona is the clear favorite to represent the region in the Final Four.

No. 2 Purdue – Despite being the 7-seed in the Big Ten Tournament, Purdue won four games in as many days, including an eight-point win over Michigan in the final to come out on top in Chicago. Seniors Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn form a paring that's not seen often, as both players have been with the program all four years. The AP Preseason No. 1 team in the country didn't exactly live up to expectations at 13-7 in conference, but it finished the year with the most efficient offense, per KenPom.  

No. 3 Gonzaga – Judging solely based off record, the 30-3 Bulldogs are the best Gonzaga team since the 2021 squad that lost in the National Championship. It's a much different looking team than last year with only one returning starter, albeit a key one in leading scorer, Graham Ike. A 40-point loss to Michigan and a head-scratching defeat at the hands of a sub-.500 Portland team make this group difficult to fully decipher, but six wins over tournament teams show that the seeding is justified.

No. 4 Arkansas – The perception around Arkansas could be much different had it not squeaked by Oklahoma in the SEC Tournament opener, which they ultimately went on to win by defeating Vanderbilt in the final. Darius Acuff is the obvious star of this team and one of the best players in the country, as the freshman's 22.7 ppg and 6.4 apg were the best of anyone in the conference. Will we see the team we saw this past weekend, or the one that allowed 111 points to Florida a few weeks ago?

MARCH MADNESS CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 9 Utah State – Although the Aggies stumbled down the stretch with three losses over their final five regular season games, no signs of it were shown in the Mountain West Conference tournament, where it won all three games by double-digits. An experienced group that starts three seniors, Utah State doesn't jump off the page but is well-balanced on both ends of the court, making it a team that Arizona won't want to overlook in the second round.

No. 11 N.C. State – I'm not calling for N.C. State to make a Final Four run like it did two years ago (also as an 11 seed), but the path to make the second weekend is there. In his first season at the helm, Will Wade put together a quality roster, led by senior Darrion Williams, a Texas Tech transfer that was part of an Elite Eight squad last year. Led by a fast-paced offense, the Wolfpack averaged 83.7 ppg, good for 24th in the country.

WEST REGION BIGGEST BUST

No. 3 Gonzaga – No, I'm not saying the Gonzaga is going to lose to Kennesaw State, which is a great way to ease into the tournament. However, the Zags aren't nearly as good as their record might indicate. Braden Huff will miss the first weekend of the tournament, and I'm not confident the Bulldogs are good enough to survive two games without him. Only three players reached double figures in the regular season finale defeat at the hands of Saint Mary's. Judging by the KenPom metrics, this is the worst offensive Gonzaga team in over a decade.

Want to see how the latest injuries might affect the top pickups in college basketball? Head on over to RotoWire's college basketball injury report.

WEST REGION FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 11 N.C. State over No. 6 BYU – I'm taking a bit of a chance here, as the Wolfpack will first have to get by Texas -- a team that enters having lost five of its last six -- in the play-in game. Assuming N.C. State advances, I expect the Wolfpack to pull off the upset over BYU. The Cougars have struggled without senior guard Richie Saunders, going 4-5 with three losses to non-tournament teams since he tore his ACL. A lack of depth and defense has been evident, which a senior-laden starting lineup of N.C. State will exploit.

WEST REGION PLAYER TO WATCH

Malik Reneau, F, Miami Fl. – There is a lot of star talent in this region from Acuff to Ike to A.J. Dybantsa to Dailyn Swain to Nick Boyd, among others. One player I wanted to touch on is Reneau, a senior that transferred after three seasons with Indiana. The 6-9 power forward has been rejuvenated following a pair of tumultuous seasons with the Hoosiers and is leading the Hurricanes with 18.8 ppg. He's also efficient on the glass with 6.6 rpg. Miami went 7-1 in conference play when Reneau scored at least 20 points. Miami will need to a big game from Reneau to get past Missouri and potentially upset Purdue. 

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WEST REGION SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Arizona – I expect Arizona to face Utah State in the second round, and HC Jerrod Calhoun made it known that he thought his squad was under-seeded. I think the Aggies are better than a nine seed, and while I can see them keeping it competitive for a half, talent will prevail for Arizona to get to the Sweet 16.

No. 2. Purdue – Purdue gets a nice first-round matchup against 13-loss Queens before facing the winner of Miami FL and Missouri in the second round. Miami is coming off a 22-point loss to Virginia, while Missouri enters having lost three in a row. It's hard to imagine either knocking off the red-hot Boilermakers.

No. 11 N.C. State – I've touched on the Wolfpack and Gonzaga a bit already. It's not uncommon to see a team from the play-in game get hot and make a run. If N.C. State loses, I'm comfortable flipping this pick to Texas, a team with plenty of offensive firepower. 

No. 5 Wisconsin – It has been an interesting year for Wisconsin. The Badgers have shown an elite ceiling by handing Michigan its first loss of the year, beating Illinois twice and also winning against Purdue and Michigan State. Wisconsin has also lost by 28+ twice and slipped up to USC and Oregon. Nevertheless, Nolan Winter (ankle) is set to return Thursday, and Boyd and John Blackwell form an exceptional backcourt duo. I'll give the in-game coaching edge to Greg Gard over John Calipari to get Wisconsin to the second weekend.

WEST REGION FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 1 Arizona – I know that this may come off as the boring or easy pick, but it's difficult to imagine Arizona not getting through the region. A top-5 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency, it's hard to find a weakness in this team. If anything, starting three freshman exposes some inexperience, but you'd hardly know it when watching them play. The Wildcats have a ton of length, and 7-foot-2 center Motiejus Krivas is one of the best shot-blockers in the country. The main reason to fade Arizona is if you're doing several brackets and want to get contrarian with Arkansas or Wisconsin taking the Cats down.

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