This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We've only got a handful of games on Thursday's college hoops slate, but thankfully, we at least have a pair of high-major teams colliding in a heated rivalry game. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on Thursday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Appalachian State 
at East Carolina 
These two teams sport identical adjusted offensive efficiency ratings, but East Carolina has a couple of special skills that I believe will propel them past Appalachian State.
First, the Pirates are incredibly active on the glass, ranking 116th in offensive rebounding percentage. This is a valuable trait in any matchup, but especially in this one because Appalachian State struggles on the boards, ranking 316th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Second, the Pirates are proficient at aggressively driving to the basket and creating contact, ranking 45th in free-throw attempt rate. This is again ideal for an opponent of Appalachian State, as the Mountaineers have struggled to get stops without fouling, ranking 256th in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
Appalachian State's saving grace offensively is that it seldom turns the ball over, but it doesn't often get offensive rebounds (212th), make three-pointers (304th in percentage), or make free throws (361st in percentage).
Given all of Appalachian State's liabilities, I have to go with East Carolina in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: East Carolina -4.5
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UT Arlington at UT Rio Grande Valley
UT Arlington doesn't have a great offensive efficiency rating, but it makes up for it by playing aggressively in the paint. The Mavericks boast the 45th-highest offensive rebounding percentage and also frequently get to the foul line, 121st among D-1 teams. This is an ideal combination when facing a team like UT Rio Grande Valley. The Vaqueros have been vulnerable on the glass, ranking 154th in defensive rebounding, and with committing fouls, ranking 281st in free-throw attempts allowed.
At the other end of the court, UT Rio Grande Valley's best skill is long-range shooting. The Vaqueros have knocked down 37 percent of three-point attempts this season, but, as it turns out, the Mavericks have been among the best at preventing perimeter scoring, holding opponents to under 25 percent from beyond the arc, the third-lowest percentage allowed among all D-1 teams. Outside of this area, the Vaqueros don't do many things well, ranking well below the D-1 average marks in offensive rebounding (307th), free-throw attempt rate (355th), two-point field goal percentage (266th), and free-throw percentage (280th).
Considering how UT Arlington matches up against UT Rio Grande Valley, I have to go with the Mavericks in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UT Arlington +2.5
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Iowa 
at Iowa State
For the first time in a long time, 10 years to be exact, the Hawkeyes are playing well defensively, ranking 34th in adjusted efficiency. The Hawkeyes have yet to allow any opponent to score more than 71 points this season, including high-major team opponents such as Xavier, Mississippi, Michigan State, and Maryland.
The Cyclones, meanwhile, are coming off one of the most impressive victories of the season, for any team. Iowa State won at West Lafayette this past Saturday while holding Purdue to just 58 points, which is all the more remarkable considering Purdue still has the nation's highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating. Naturally, this kind of defensive performance lifted the Cyclones to the second-best defensive rating among all D-1 teams.
Both teams in this matchup are capable of getting hot offensively, but I don't think that's likely to happen given how each defense has been playing. Both teams rank in the top five nationally in defensive turnover percentage, underscoring the tenaciousness of both defenses.
Also, in-state rivalry games are often among the most intense, and this one fits that same profile. For these reasons, I'm taking the under in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 143.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- East Carolina -4.5
- UT Arlington +2.5
- Iowa at Iowa State - Under 143.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
