NBA Momentum Index Week 7: Magic & Heat Surge, Thunder Still Untouchable

NBA Momentum Index Week 7: Magic & Heat Surge, Thunder Still Untouchable

Early-season NBA records can be misleading. Hot starts fade, slow starts stabilize, and a few teams quietly establish themselves as real threats long before the standings catch up. To measure which teams are truly playing the best basketball right now, RotoWire developed the NBA Momentum Index — a composite power indicator that evaluates how well teams are performing on both ends, not just whether they're winning games. 

The Index scores every team on five key performance indicators over a rolling two-week window: Net Rating, Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, Effective Field Goal Percentage and Win Percentage. These metrics are normalized, weighted, and combined into a single number — the Pulse Score — which reflects current form and sustainability. 

This will be updated every two weeks all season. Each update will highlight: 

Risers: Teams gaining meaningful momentum 

Fallers: Teams losing rhythm or efficiency 

Stability Teams: Clubs holding strong with consistent play 

This helps track performance arcs, not just standings shifts. 

What's New This Week (Week 7 Update) 

This window (Nov. 19 – Dec. 2) brought some of the largest movement swings so far: 

Huge Risers 

Orlando Magic (+10) – leap into the No. 2 spot behind elite offense 

Miami Heat (+12) – massive defensive turnaround 

Memphis Grizzlies (+20) – biggest jump of the cycle 

Indiana Pacers (+15) – massive climb despite middling record 

Brooklyn Nets (+1 but out of the basement with real improvements) 

Major Fallers 

Phoenix Suns (–14) – biggest drop; defensive collapse 

Detroit Pistons (–6) – offense cooled sharply 

Denver Nuggets (–6) – defense regressing 

Celtics (–3); Warriors (–4); Bucks (–4) 

Stability Teams 

Oklahoma City Thunder – remain No. 1 again 

San Antonio Spurs – negligible movement 

Toronto Raptors – still strong, only slight dip 

This window clearly shows shifts in efficiency and form that standings alone don't reveal. 

Methodology: 

The NBA Momentum Index uses publicly available advanced stats from the current season, calculated across the most recent two-week game window for all 30 teams. 

For each team, we collected: 

Net Rating (NetRtg) 

Offensive Rating (ORtg) 

Defensive Rating (DRtg) 

Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) 

Win Percentage over the same window 

Each stat was then: 

Normalized to a 0–100 scale. 

Weighted based on predictive strength and sustainability: 

Metric Weight Purpose 
Net Rating 30% Best overall indicator of true team strength 
Offensive Rating 20% Measures scoring efficiency + shot creation 
Defensive Rating 20% Captures ability to prevent opponent runs 
Effective FG% 20% Rewards teams generating good shots 
Win % (this window only) 10% Adds contextual performance temperature 

These weighted values were averaged into a final Pulse Score, which determines ranking. 

The Index will be recalculated every two weeks, comparing new Pulse Scores vs. previous values to track: 

Momentum shifts 

Breakout teams 

Cooling trends 

Underlying performance vs. record 

Rank Team Win% NetRtg ORtg DRtg eFG% Pulse Score Previous Rank Rank Change 
Oklahoma City Thunder 1.000 14.3 119.6 105.3 59.9 95.3 
Orlando Magic 0.833 13.3 124.7 111.4 55.8 80.9 12 10 
Miami Heat 0.857 11.1 117.2 106.1 54.1 77.9 15 12 
Los Angeles Lakers 0.800 5.1 124.1 119 60.2 67.3 14 10 
New York Knicks 0.714 6.9 122 115.1 57.7 65.7 
Houston Rockets 0.667 9.6 119 109.4 51.8 64.4 -1 
Memphis Grizzlies 0.714 6.2 118.7 112.5 55.4 63 27 20 
Toronto Raptors 0.750 4.4 114 109.6 54.1 60.9 -1 
Detroit Pistons 0.667 2.8 115.8 113 55.9 55.5 -6 
10 Denver Nuggets 0.571 3.6 126.6 122.9 60.9 55.1 -6 
11 Boston Celtics 0.667 1.8 125 123.2 58.9 53.6 -3 
12 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.571 2.8 118.2 115.4 55.9 50.9 -6 
13 San Antonio Spurs 0.667 1.3 122.1 120.8 54.5 49 13 
14 Atlanta Hawks 0.571 0.7 113.9 113.2 56.7 48.7 11 -3 
15 Indiana Pacers 0.429 2.4 112.6 110.2 55.2 45.4 30 15 
16 Phoenix Suns 0.571 -1.4 113.1 114.5 54.8 42.8 -14 
17 Cleveland Cavaliers 0.429 1.2 116.2 115 55.5 42.1 10 -7 
18 Dallas Mavericks 0.429 -0.7 112.4 113.1 52.7 36.6 19 
19 Philadelphia 76ers 0.429 -3.7 110.3 114 52.4 30.8 17 -2 
20 Golden State Warriors 0.333 -1.5 111.3 112.8 51.9 30.7 16 -4 
21 Brooklyn Nets 0.333 -4.4 111.5 115.9 53.1 25.9 22 
22 Milwaukee Bucks 0.143 -4.4 113.1 117.5 58.9 23.5 18 -4 
23 Portland Trail Blazers 0.286 -5.7 110.3 115.9 50.9 19.5 20 -3 
24 Chicago Bulls 0.286 -8.8 109.5 118.3 54.5 16.9 23 -1 
25 New Orleans Pelicans 0.125 -4.7 115.4 120 52.9 15.6 26 
T-26 Charlotte Hornets 0.286 -7.6 113.5 121.1 50.9 14.5 25 -1 
T-26 Utah Jazz 0.333 -10.3 111.3 121.6 53.8 14.5 21 -5 
28 Washington Wizards 0.286 -10.2 110.1 120.3 54.1 13.5 29 
29 Sacramento Kings 0.286 -10.1 107.7 117.8 51.4 11.7 28 -1 
30 Los Angeles Clippers 0.143 -9.8 113.2 123 52.9 6.4 24 -6 

*All metric stats are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com  

Who Are The NBA's Hottest Teams?  

Anytime you start a season with 21 wins in 22 games, chances are you're going to grab the top spot in your league.  

That's exactly what's happened with the defending champs from the Sooner State, as the Oklahoma City Thunder hold onto the NBA's best pulse score, at 95.3.  

Overall, Mark Daigneault's bunch rank well ahead of the next closest club by pulse score, with the Orlando Magic holding that honor with a total of 80.9 points this year.  

Throw in the third-place Miami Heat (77.9 pulse score), Los Angeles Lakers (67.3 pulse score) and the New York Knicks (65.7 pulse score) and you have the upper end of the NBA's best teams by pulse score covered.  

What To Know About NBA's Hottest Teams 

The Thunder's hot start has been paced by holding the league's best defense, metrics wise, with a defensive rating of 105.2, with OKC giving up a league-best 107.0 points per game in 2025.  

Throw in the NBA's fifth ranked offense (120.2) and third-ranked scoring offense (122.3 points per game) and you have a decent idea why the Thunder are well ahead of their peers in the NBA as the league approaches its customary quarter point.  

More surprising is Orlando's place in the league table, momentum wise, given the team's current fifth place standing in the East, with a 13-8 (.619) mark to date.  

Much of that momentum is due to Orlando's seventh ranked defense, rating wise, at 113.0, while the Magic's offensive rating (118.1) is ninth overall and their net rating of +5.1 is eighth overall.  

Miami's inclusion is less of a surprise, as the Heat are third in the East at 14-7, three games back of the first-place Detroit Pistons and a half-game behind the Toronto Raptors.  

In the Heat's case, head coach Erik Spoelstra's bunch have the NBA's third-ranked defense, ratings wise, at 111.7, with the fifth ranked net rating, at +5.6.  

The Lakers (15-5) and Knicks (13-7) follow similar patterns to Orlando and Miami, with L.A. holding the NBA's seventh ranked offensive rating (119.5), while the Knicks are third in the league offensively, with a rating of 121.9 and the fourth best net rating (+6.9) in the 30-team association.  

Who's Struggled To Date?  

While those five teams are the NBA's best out of the gate, the opposite is true of league cellar dwellers like the Los Angeles Clippers, Sacramento Kings, Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz and the Charlotte Hornets.  

Those five teams have gone a combined 26-77 (.252) this season, with the Wizards having the worst record of the lot at 3-17.  

When broken down teamwide pulse scores, the Clippers hold the distinction of being the NBA's worst team, momentum wise, as the City of Angels stalwarts have a total of 6.4 points through 21 games.  

Luckily for all involved, there's still more than 50 games to go in the NBA's marathon of a regular season, though it's getting late early for some of the league's teams riding the proverbial struggle bus in the opening stretch of the 2025-26 campaign.  

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Christopher Boan
Christopher has covered the sports betting industry for more than seven years, and takes the lead on both sports analysis and legislative developments for GDC Group. His work has also appeared on ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
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