This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
DAL at MIL: The Bucks have won seven straight in this series.
NOP at SAS: The Spurs have won four straight games over the Pelicans.
TOR at OKC: The Thunder have won four straight fixtures against the Raptors.
MIA at PHX: The Heat beat the Suns earlier this season, but Miami won three of four before that.
BKN at LAC: The Clippers have won four straight over the Nets.
For the latest spreads and over/unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There you can also find player props, futures, picks, articles and sportsbook bonus codes.
Injuries to Monitor
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
DAL - Kyrie Irving (knee), Anthony Davis (hand), Daniel Gafford (ankle) B2B
MIL - Myles Turner (ankle), Kevin Porter (oblique), Gary Trent (illness), Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf)
NOP - Dejounte Murray (Achilles), Herbert Jones (ankle), Jose Alvarado (oblique)
SAS - Luke Kornet (adductor), Devin Vassell (thigh)
TOR - Jakob Poeltl (back), RJ Barrett (ankle), Collin Murray-Boyles (hand)
OKC - Isaiah Hartenstein (calf), Alex Caruso (adductor), Aaron Wiggins (groin), Jalen Williams (thigh)
MIA - Tyler Herro (toe), Kel'el Ware (hamstring), Davion Mitchell (shoulder) B2B
PHX - Devin Booker (ankle), Jalen Green (hamstring)
BKN - Nic Claxton (finger)
LAC - Bogdan Bogdanovic (hamstring), Derrick Jones (knee), Kawhi Leonard (illness)
DAL and MIA on the second half of a B2B.
Guards
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder ($10,900) vs. Raptors
SGA has been one of the safest options in DFS over the last five years. The reigning MVP is one of the league leaders with 52 DraftKings points per game. More importantly, Gilgeous-Alexander has a 40-point floor to match that absurd average. That floor gets even higher with Williams sidelined, which was on full display when SGA had 62 and 69 DraftKings points in his two most recent outings. He's also said he's always more motivated to face Toronto since he's from Canada, which is awesome since he's looking at 25 shots and a usage rate above 30 percent with Williams off the floor.
Collin Gillespie, Suns ($6,300) vs. Heat
Many people outside of Phoenix might not realize this, but Gillespie is having a breakout season for the Suns. The former Nugget is averaging 30 DK points per game as one of Phoenix's primary ball-handlers. He's done that with Booker in action, but we could see Gillespie do everything with Book and Green is expected to miss this game. That leaves Gillespie as one of the only ball-handlers left on the roster. That's led to Gillespie scoring 35 and 42 DK points so far this week, and we haven't even mentioned this matchup with Miami. The Heat surrender the third-most fantasy points to opposing guards while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.
Forwards/Centers
Kawhi Leonard, Clippers ($9,600) vs. Nets
Kawhi goes on these stretches where he looks like a top-five player, and he's currently in one of those right now. Leonard has scored at least 37 DraftKings points in 15 straight fixtures while posting a 54-point average in that span. He should be above $10K with that type of profile, especially since he's playing over 35 minutes a night while attempting more than 20 shots a night. That's bad news for Brooklyn because the Nets post a 19th OPRK against opposing forwards. In their last two matchups, Kawhi has collected 50 and 58 fantasy points.
Bam Adebayo, Heat ($8,100) at Suns
Adebayo struggled through the opening two months, but this All-Star is starting to find it. The big man has at least 32 DK points in 24 of 30 games since returning from an injury while posting a 40-point average in that span. That's the stud we've been waiting to see, and it looks even better since he has a 46-point average across his last six outings. We don't anticipate the Suns slowing him down because they rank 16th against opposing centers. When they played two weeks ago, Bam had 54 fantasy points in one of his best games of the season.
Expected Chalk
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs ($10,300) vs. Pelicans
We were always going to hit a point where Wemby was too cheap after his minutes restriction, and we're finally there. The big man has been close to $12K at times when he plays his usual 35-40 minutes, and we've seen Wemby play at least 30 minutes in three of his last four fixtures. That's all he needs to be the best player in fantasy, averaging nearly 50 DK points per game across just 29 minutes of action this season. In his two matchups with the Pelicans this year, Wembanyama has 51 and 75 DK points. That's far from shocking since they surrender the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers,
Mid-Range Money
Bobby Portis, Bucks ($6,200) at Mavericks
It always takes some unforeseen circumstances for Portis to become a fantasy stud, but that's just what we have here. This big man has always been one of the best per-minute producers in a bench role, but he might become the focal point of Milwaukee's offense with Giannis expected to miss this game. We've seen Portis flirt with a 30 percent usage rate when Antetokounmpo has been out in the past, averaging nearly 35 DK points per game in that expanded role. He'll likely play 30 minutes and take 15-20 shots in this newfound role, which is the sort of role that could make him an $8K player in the near future. Not to mention, Dallas owns a 23rd OPRK against opposing big men.
Mark Williams, Suns ($5,700) vs. Heat
Williams can be frustrating to trust with his volatile role, but he always produces when given the opportunity. We have to believe Williams will play at least 25 minutes with Booker and Green out, which is all he needs to be a beast. The big man is averaging 28 DK points per game across 24 minutes a night this year. In addition, he has a 39-point average when he plays at least 26 minutes. We love that against Miami because they play at the fastest pace, while ranked 24th in total defense.
Value Picks
Kyle Kuzma, Bucks ($5,200) vs. Mavericks
Recommending a guy like Kuzma scares me to death, but Milwaukee needs him to do something with Giannis expected to miss the next month. Kuzma is happy to take on that heavy workload, dropping 34 DK points in the game in which Antetokounmpo got injured. The Bucks just inserted Kuzma into the starting lineup last week, and they'll need him to swallow up 30-35 minutes and 15 shots for this shorthanded roster. Kuzma has played at a $7K level with that type of opportunity in the past, and it's hard to overlook this $5,200 price tag in what could be a season-high usage rate game for Kuz.
Brandon Williams, Mavericks ($4,600) at Bucks
The Mavericks have been playing merry-go-round with their point guards all season, but Williams appears to be the guy right now. This 26-year-old has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 12 outings. The other two were complete duds, but we're encouraged that Williams played at least 24 minutes in all of those. That alone makes Williams an immense value south of $5K, especially since they face a struggling Milwaukee team. The Bucks have lost five of their last six outings while surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing PGs.
