This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Wednesday's NBA betting slate features exploitable matchups across nine games. Brooklyn's league-worst defense makes Jalen Johnson attractive, Phoenix's porous backcourt sets up Ja Morant. Walker Kessler faces block-prone Portland, Cooper Flagg bounces back against depleted Indiana. Expert analysis for tonight's sharpest plays.
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Best NBA Bets Tonight
Jalen Johnson over 18.5 points (-125) at Brooklyn Nets
BetMGM, 2:39 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Brooklyn is allowing a league-high 130.5 points per 48 minutes. I am somewhat worried about the blowout, but the Hawks are only favored by eight points -- we aren't in complete stay-away territory. Brooklyn has been giving up a lot of looks at the rim, and that's where Johnson likes to attack. Johnson is averaging 19.7 points in 31.0 minutes in three appearances.
Ja Morant over 32.5 points + assists (-108) at Phoenix Suns
DraftKings, 2:50 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Per 48 minutes, Phoenix is allowing the 3rd-most points (125.7) and the fifth-most assists (27.8). Notably, they've allowed games of 29-and-9 to DeMar DeRozan, eight assists to Chris Paul in 20 minutes, 14-and-7 to Dennis Schroder, and 30-and-7 to James Harden. The Grizzlies have played in two big blowouts in their first four games, limiting Morant's time on the court. I think this could be his best game yet. Per 36 minutes, he's averaging 29.4 points and 8.6 assists.
Walker Kessler over 2.5 blocks (+106) vs. Portland Trail Blazers
DraftKings, 2:58 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Kessler has been great defensively to begin the year, averaging 2.7 blocks in 31.3 MPG -- similar to his 2024-25 block rate. This looks like a strong matchup for him, as Portland is being blocked the second-most per 48 minutes (6.5). Notably, Brook Lopez had three blocks in 13 minutes against the Blazers, and Ivica Zubac -- not known for his shot-blocking -- had two swats.
Cooper Flagg O25.5 PTS+REB+AST vs. Indiana Pacers (-109)
DraftKings, 1:31 PM CT
Nick Whalen: We're going to buy low on Flagg after a brutal showing against the Thunder on Monday, when he finished with just two points and two rebounds in 31 minutes. This should be a much friendlier matchup against an already-banged-up Pacers team, which ranks in the bottom-10 in the NBA in defensive rating thus far. Indiana also gives up the most rebounds per game and will be without Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard and Ben Mathurin.
Jalen Johnson O27.5 PTS+REB at Brooklyn Nets (-122)
DraftKings, 1:31 PM CT
Nick Whalen: Not to pick on the Nets, but Brooklyn's early 131.8 defensive rating is tough to ignore. This should be a pace-up spot for Brooklyn — Atlanta ranks 11th in Pace — and the Hawks' offense should have its way with a team that's given up 137, 118, 131 and 136 points thus far. A second-half blowout is a concern, though Johnson needed only 32 minutes to post 31 points and rebounds on Monday against the Bulls.
Scottie Barnes over 6.5 rebounds vs. Houston Rockets (-130)
BetMGM, 4PM ET
Ken Crites: The Raptors are missing center Jakob Poeltl tonight due to a back issue. That means jack-of-all-trades Scottie Barnes will need to step up his rebounding. He's averaging 6.3 boards a game this season and snagged an impressive 7.7 rebounds per contest last season. He's capable of a double-double most nights and is a better rebounder than fellow forward Brandon Ingram. Both Barnes and Ingram will need to crash the boards versus Houston's big boy lineup of Amen-KD-Jabari-Sengun-and-Adams. Houston surprisingly ranks 22nd in opponent rebounds allowed per game (67.1), a good sign. But, hey, the K-Train is a mediocre 53-43 over the past 2+ seasons — feel free to fade!
