Luis Robert

Robert's durability issues subsist after he was able to play in only 98 games, albeit a new personal high. He dealt with a groin issue, COVID-19, lightheadedness/blurred vision, a sprained wrist and a bruised hand. Through it all, Robert lowered his strikeout rate to a career-best 19.2%, but his average exit velocity dropped, and he hit more groundballs. The result was a drop in both power and batting average though Robert's running picked up a tad. With so many injuries over his first three seasons, it's impossible to gauge Robert's true skill level, other than to say it has the potential to be elite. Nothing in his litany of injuries appears to be chronic, so there is hope Robert can shake the health bug and develop. The temptation of a healthy season showing off plus power and speed is keeping Robert as a top-12 outfielder in early drafts. Giving in is a matter of risk management with such a huge reward.

Robert was slashing .316/.359/.463 before suffering a Grade 3 right hip flexor strain on May 2. He returned on Aug. 9 and then raked, posting a .350/.389/.622 line over his final 43 games. Robert's power was supported with a 94.8 mph flyball exit velocity, but his .394 BABIP was due to regress 40-50 points. That said, a BABIP in that range fuels a high batting average, especially if Robert can maintain the contact gains. To wit, Robert fanned at a 20.6% clip, the best of his professional career. He's not patient, but in today's game, walks are secondary to solid contact with power. Robert also possesses elite speed, putting him in the five-category class. Health is the only obstacle to first-round/$30-plus status. While he was fully recovered from his hip tear, Robert left the White Sox's last playoff game with right leg tightness. He'll be healthy for 2022, but it serves to reiterate the injury risk.

Sky-high expectations reached outer space after Robert signed a long-term extension with the White Sox in January of 2020 before making his major-league debut. We all had to wait longer than expected for that debut, but Robert did not disappoint early with a .298/.348/.612 line, 10 homers and four steals in 33 games through the end of August. Arbitrary endpoint warning: Robert then hit .136/.237/.173 with 32 strikeouts and one extra-base hit in his final 93 PA after the calendar flipped to September. There is a learning curve for all players and it was easy to see that Robert would have some growing pains at some point because for as highly-touted as he was as a prospect, the plate skills are unrefined. The tools are off the charts and the considerable upside makes it tempting to overlook the fact that he's still a work in progress. He will likely be batting in the middle of an exciting White Sox lineup.

If we were just scouting the stats (.328 AVG, 32 HR, 36 SB) across Robert's stops at High-A, Double-A and Triple-A, he would be the top prospect in baseball. However, there are some small areas of concern. First, he had a 129:28 K:BB in 122 games, and it's not like he was particularly young (by top prospect standards) for the levels he played at in his age-21/22 season. He struggles to pick up offspeed pitches, which could result in strikeout rates north of 30% early on against MLB pitching. Robert's elite athleticism should allow him to largely overcome those issues and be a productive fantasy outfielder from Day 1. His plus-plus raw power and plus speed will translate to some 30-20 or even 40-20 seasons, but it may take a few years for him to not be a BA drain. He is unlikely to ever be a positive contributor in OBP, but Robert should debut right away after inking a long-term deal in January.

Robert has impressive physical tools, but his stock has dipped since the White Sox committed $52 million to sign him in 2017. A left thumb injury erased his first two months of 2018. He was eased back with a two-week Sally League assignment before getting promoted to the Carolina League, where his age and pedigree suggested he belonged. Robert re-injured his thumb after just nine games with Winston-Salem and did not return until early August. The only level where he has ever been a below league-average hitter (81 wRC+) was the only level (High-A) where he was age-appropriate. In fact, his only two home runs in 68 stateside games came in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League, where he slashed .324/.367/.432 with a 13:5 K:BB and five steals in 18 games. He has tools (plus power, plus speed) that are tough to give up on, but the odds seem long that he will hit for a high average while displaying that 25-25 upside in the big leagues.

The final impact Cuban prospect to sign under the old international rules, Robert received a $26 million bonus from the White Sox, resulting in a $52 million commitment after the overage tax. A lean, athletic 6-foot-3 center fielder, Robert hadn't played competitively for about a year when he signed, so he was eased into pro ball in the Dominican Summer League. The 20-year-old's production should be essentially thrown out, as the talent disparity between Robert and the rest of the DSL would be akin to sending an established major leaguer to Double-A for 28 games. Evaluators agree that he is a plus runner with premium bat speed that could lead to plus power. However, there are conflicting reports about how he projects as a hitter. Some think he will hit for a relatively high average with good on-base skills, while others think his swing may need to be overhauled if he is to make enough contact against upper-level pitching. He is an extreme upside gamble in dynasty leagues. Robert is expected to be assigned to Low-A or High-A.