Gabriel Moreno

Every year, there is a player whose playoff exploits overshadow his regular season. In 380 regular season plate appearances, Moreno swatted seven homers. In 70 postseason trips to the dish, he clubbed four dingers. Perhaps the best approach is evaluating 2024 is combining the two, yielding 11 long balls in 450 plate appearances. In those 70 plate appearances, Moreno continued to hit a preponderance of ground balls, he just happened to drive a cluster of fly balls out of the yard. However, the high ground ball rate, combined with a nine-point jump to a 41.8 percent hard hit rate supports a high BABIP, which is Moreno's primary asset; a couple more homers is a bonus. He did strike out more last season, but his 19.7 percent mark was still below average, especially for a catcher. Moreno's pitch presentation is below average, but he's otherwise outstanding behind the plate, which should result in bell cow level of playing time. Moreno is in play for those favoring to pay for a solid catcher, just don't overpay for four playoff homers.

Not since Cristian Pache have we seen this big of a gulf between a player's ranking on real-life prospect lists and fantasy prospect lists. That's not to say Moreno will become fantasy irrelevant like Pache, but so much of his perceived real-life value is tied to his defense behind the plate. His hit tool is excellent, especially relative to other catching prospects, but Moreno has hit just 11 home runs in 99 minor-league games since the start of 2021 and his 24.9 Hard% in the minors last season is a middling mark. He did well in his first big-league stint as a 22-year-old, hitting .319 with a .274 xBA and 11.0 K% in 25 games, but he had just two extra-base hits. Prime Jonathan Lucroy - something like a .290 AVG and 15-to-20 HR - seems like a median outcome for his prime years and prime Buster Posey - say a .310 AVG and 20-to-25 HR - is a best-case scenario. Either one of those outcomes would be great for fantasy, and Moreno should have the immediate chance for everyday playing time after he was acquired by the Diamondbacks from the Blue Jays in December, though he could split starts with Carson Kelly early on.

Moreno was one of the top breakout prospects in the minors in 2021, even with a broken thumb limiting him to half a season. He had been internally labeled the team's catcher of the future entering the year, but even those highest on Moreno didn't expect him to hit .373/.441/.651 (192 wRC+) with eight home runs, a 9.7 BB% and a 15.2 K% in 32 games as a 21-year-old catcher at Double-A. He got bumped up to Triple-A for three games after returning from the thumb injury in September and then went to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .329/.410/.494 with a 13:13 K:BB in 100 PA. It's Moreno's special skill with the bat that will make him a big piece of Toronto's future, not necessarily his work behind the plate, although he is good enough to stick there. However, third base is currently a bigger hole for the Jays, and he started there twice in the AFL, leading to speculation that the hot corner may be his long-term home. His big-league ETA and short-term playing time outlook are difficult to peg, but it's possible he is up in the first few months. Moreno has an excellent command of the strike zone for a player his age, and he has the bat speed to hit 20-plus home runs with one of the best batting averages among catcher-eligible players.