Cedric Mullins

Mullins struggled for a second consecutive seasons to match the production from his breakout season in 2021. 2023 saw him struggle at the plate around two different stints on the injured list with groin strains that clearly had an impact on his efforts at the plate. Despite the injuries, Mullins was voluming at a 2022 pace but not being 100% certainly impacted his strikeouts at the plate which pulled his batting average down once again. Mullins has now seen his average fall nearly 60 points over the past two seasons and much of the red ink which once proliferated his StatCast profile has turned into a cool blue hue. 2023 saw Mullins lean into a pull-heavy flyball approach which helped him pace ahead of 2022's power numbers but he literally limped to a .205/.249/.374 triple-slash line from August 1st to the end of the season. A healthy Mullins can still volume his way fantasy value, but 2021 was the dream while a blend of the past two seasons is closer to reality.

Mullins lost more than 100 points off his slugging percentage, but he stole 30 bases for the second consecutive year and thus remains a star in the rotisserie game. His HR/FB was effectively cut in half from 2021, and fittingly, his homer total was essentially halved. Mullins struggled against left-handed pitching, slashing .209/.265/.313 against same-side pitchers compared to .279/.340/.441 against right-handers. Those splits were not nearly as pronounced in 2021, but if they continue, Mullins will leave himself open to platooning, especially if the Orioles do indeed push into a competitive window. The speed is so rare nowadays that Mullins is worthy of early-round consideration in many fantasy formats even if there are lingering questions about his bat.

Mullins had a few vocal proponents before the 2021 season, yet few listened as Mullins was easily had late in many drafts. All Mullins did was have just the 11th 30-30 season in baseball since the 2011 season. It is worth noting that only Ryan Braun (2011, 2012) has posted back-to-back 30-30 seasons in recent memory. Coming into 2021, Mullins' most redeeming value was that he had 110-percent lock on playing time. He clearly had some talent, so a perpetually rebuilding Baltimore team was going to give him as much playing time as his body and skills could pay for. Given little has changed in Baltimore for 2022, Mullins has the same opportunity before him and could even repeat if he can homer more on the road given 22 of his 30 homers came at Camden Yards. If he's traded out of Baltimore, his outlook changes considerably.

Mullins didn't do much to separate himself from a large group of fringy outfielders in Baltimore, but he at least looked like a legitimate big-leaguer, something that couldn't be taken for granted after he hit a miserable .094/.181/.156 in 22 games in 2019. His .271/.315/.407 slash line this time around was good for a still below-average 95 wRC+, but when combined with good speed (seven steals) and roughly average defense in center, that's a useful enough player. Role questions remain for Mullins, however, as other Oriole outfielders also took steps forward. Additionally, there are questions about whether he can maintain his 2020 level. His 24.2 K% and 5.2 BB% showed poor plate discipline, and he had an awful 2.8% barrel rate. Statcast hated his quality of contact, giving him a .209 xBA and .296 xSLG. Despite his wheels and respectable numbers, Mullins still has work to do to prove he's an everyday player.

Mullins drew the start in center field on Opening Day and appeared to have a handle on the starting job, but after opening the year 6-for-64 with four RBI and 14 strikeouts over the first 22 contests, he was demoted to Triple-A Norfolk where he continued to struggle. The 25-year-old slashed .205/.272/.306 with a 46 wRC+, and a low 5.4 BB% negating a 16.7 K% over 66 games. Ultimately, the O's demoted Mullins again, this time to Double-A Bowie in mid-July. He finally saw his bat come to life while with the Baysox, but this certainly isn't how Mullins saw the 2019 campaign playing out. Even so, he'll likely have a shot to redeem himself during spring training and could wind up once again making Baltimore's Opening Day roster. Whether he'll be able to earn regular work remains to be seen, but it should be considered a long shot, especially after Austin Hays showed promise near the end of the 2019 season.

Mullins made his big-league debut and took over the starting job in center field from Adam Jones in early August, starting hot with a .317/.386/.566 slash line through the end of the month. Things changed quickly as the young outfielder began to struggle in September and finished the season in a 2-for-33 slump. He has kept relatively low strikeout (15.2%) and walk rates (7.2%) through his time in the minors, and trended similarly during his seven weeks in the majors. The 24-year-old has shown modest power but was hurt in 2018 with a mere 12.1% line-drive rate, which ranked third-worst in the majors among players with at least 100 PA. Mullins has a chance to post a 15-15 season with regular work, which should be easy to find on an Orioles roster that is really lacking in big-league caliber outfielders. He finished last season as Baltimore's leadoff hitter and should reprise that role this year.