This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for September 10: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-1 ( -0.20 units) A's pick voided after Dustin May was scratched
Season 128-135-2 (-10.83 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Wednesday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
As teams fall out of the playoff race, we will start to see inflated moneylines.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles Best Bets and Predictions
In what has to have been the most profitable bet in MLB baseball this season, I will continue to go with Paul Skenes opponent's under 0.5 runs F3. At some point, sportsbooks should just juice the hell out this or just take it off the board.
Skenes' numbers the 1st time through the batting order never cease to amaze me - 67 innings, 0.40 ERA, 4 runs allowed, 81 strikeouts, 12 walks, .198 batting average in 29 starts.
This prop has hit in 25/29 of his starts folks. I challenge you to find anything else with this level of hit rate.
I was on the UNDER in this game yesterday F3 and had to sweat it out with 2 runs in the first inning, but the game ended up 3-2. I see more of the same with very little run scoring again Wednesday night.
Best Bet: Orioles UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers Best Bets and Predictions
When a pitcher is on a heater, you need to find any way possible to ride the streak. Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta has a 29 inning scoreless streak going, and he is pitching in a ballpark that has played to the UNDER most of the season.
The Rangers are hot and getting back into the AL Wild Card race, sitting only 1.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners, so I do not think I want to go against them in this spot. The Brewers have finally started to cool off after going on an epic run in the middle of the season.
Rangers RHP Merrill Kelly has a 2.98 ERA in his last seven starts, but he has also allowed seven home runs in that stretch.
After combing through the data, I think doubling down on an opponent UNDER F3 is the way to go in this one.
Best Bet: Rangers UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (+105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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St Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners Best Bets and Prediction
Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert is one of the best pitchers at home in baseball, and he has been for most of his career. The Mariners are -225 home favorites, and laying -1.5 runs is not optimal either, with a 7.5 total. Also, most of Gilbert's home starts end up being one-run games, so just avoid going that route. That makes it more of challenge when trying to find ways to be on Gilbert without laying more than -130.
Gilbert's home numbers are wild - 40% K rate, 5.5% walk rate, 1.88 xFIP. I could go on and on. But the trend that really sways things is the 15-4-1 record to the UNDER in Gilbert's last 20 home starts. It is 23-6-1 in the last 30.
I think playing on Gilbert's strong home pitching and going against a Cardinals offense that has very little to play for is the way to go.
Best Bet: Cardinals/Mariners UNDER 7.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Wednesday's MLB Best Bets
- Orioles UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (-115 at DraftKings)
- Rangers UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (+105 at DraftKings)
- Cardinals/Mariners UNDER 7.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (-105 at Caesars)
