This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for July 19: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-2 ( -1.35 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 89-93-1 (-7.66 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Saturday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Watch the heat, as always, in outdoor parks for totals.
Home Favorites - Mets -180 vs Reds, Cubs -145 vs Red Sox
Road Favorites - Twins -180 at Rockies, Padres -140 at Nationals
Totals - Twins/Rockies 11.5, Astros/Mariners 7.5-8.0
Line Movement - Jays -14, White Sox -15,
Bullpen Rankings (updated 7/1/25; xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Braves, Orioles, Padres, Astros, Brewers, Rays, Rangers, Pirates, Cardinals, Twins). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Nationals, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays, Rockies, Mariners, Angels, Tigers, Guardians, White Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs Betting Insights
The Red Sox were an automatic fade against left-handed pitching over the last few seasons, but Alex Cora really knows how to use his "lefty killers" Romy Gonzalez and Rob Refsnyder to their maximum potential. They are 3rd in wRC+ against lefties in 2025.
I was on Boston yesterday and Lucas Giolito made one bad pitch to give up a three run homer. I will not be backing them here on the ML, but I do like them to go over their team total. Their strong splits against lefties and being on the road guarantees that they will get 9 chances to hit, which is a plus.
The 3.5 team total has some heavy juice at -145, so I had to bump it up to 4.5 and grab plus money.
MLB Best Bets: Red Sox OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +128)
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Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies Best Bets and Predictions
This one could get ugly early as we have Zebby Matthews up against Antonio Senzatela with a combined ERA of over 12.00 between the two of them.
Laying -1.5 runs in a game with an 11.5 run total is much more advantageous especially with one of the worst starting pitchers on the mound in Senzatela.
MLB Best Bets: Twins -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
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Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets and Predictions
Adrian Houser has been solid as a starting pitcher for the White Sox. The regression concerns are very real though, as his 1.56 ERA is not sustainable against his 4.06 xFIP and 4.46 SIERA. I like Mike Burrows as a pitcher, but not in this spot as a home favorite with the Pirates being 1-9 in their last 10. Houser can go deeper in games which means you get limited exposure to the terrible White Sox bullpen.
The Pirates offense is so dismal that it makes the White Sox a very attractive road dog in this spot.
MLB Best Bets: White Sox ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +120)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Red Sox OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +128)
- Twins -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
- White Sox ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +120)
