This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
Thursday brings us a short three-game slate, but there are potentially profitable PrizePicks opportunities to take advantage of. We highlight four of our favorites below:
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Jonathan Aranda, TB at NYY: More Than 0.5 Singles/ More Than 0.5 Total Bases
Aranda has been a terrific source of fantasy production all season, providing a .315/.393/.478 slash line with 34 extra-base hits, 52 RBI, 40 walks and 53 runs. The 27-year-old first baseman has been a relatively reliable contact hitter as well and has hit safely in 69 of 102 games.
Aranda is facing the struggling Marcus Stroman in Thursday's matinee. The veteran right-hander has a 6.09 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 1.6 HR/9 across his first eight starts of the season. He's particularly had trouble against left-handed hitters at home, a split where he's surrendered a .319/.385/.574 slash line and .411 wOBA.
When Stroman exits, Aranda will also get a crack at a tired Yankees bullpen that already went into Wednesday's extra-inning marathon with a 6.65 ERA and .339 wOBA against lefty hitters in July before Devin Williams surrendered a two-run homer to Josh Lowe.
Austin Hays, CIN vs. ATL: More Than 0.5 Hits
Hays comes into Thursday's action with a solid .277/.336/.491 slash line and a well-balanced array of offensive contributions that include 23 XBH (including four triples), 41 RBI and 39 runs. He's also posted a .288 average, .770 OPS and .331 wOBA at home, and Thursday, he's drawing a matchup that could well help him augment those numbers.
Carlos Carrasco will be making his Atlanta debut after being traded from the Yankees on Monday. The 38-year-old right-hander had a highly surprising 15-win season in 2022 that is likely what is still keep him in the majors at this point, as otherwise, he posted ERAs of 5.64 to 6.80 in 2021, 2023 and 2024, and he's carrying a 5.91 ERA and 1.53 WHIP across 32 innings this season.
Carrasco has given up a .320 average, 1.110 OPS and .463 wOBA to right-handed hitters, and a 50.0 percent hard-contact rate as well. Hays is therefore a good bet for at least one hit, especially since he's hit safely in 39 of 58 games.
Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. ATL: More Than 1.5 Total Bases
With only three games on Thursday's slate, we're going to double up on Reds and go after Carrasco, who's also yielded a .284 average to left-handed hitters and .277 figure overall in that split since the start of the 2023 season.
The switch-hitting De La Cruz has been at his best against right-handed pitching, and he owns a .321 average, .970 OPS, .413 wOBA and 12.9 wRAA versus that handedness at home. De La Cruz also went into Wednesday night's action with a .345 wOBA in July, and considering he's averaging 1.8 total bases per game, this prop is very much within his range of outcomes.
Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. TEX: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI/ More Than 7 Hitter Fantasy Score
The prodigious Raleigh is up to 41 homers and a .972 OPS on the season, and he's averaging 2.5 hits + runs + RBI per game. The switch-hitting slugger has been at his best against left-handed pitching, but these two props are still very much in play for him against a pitcher in Kumar Rocker who's struggled consistently against left-handed hitters.
Rocker has surrendered a .373 average, 1.081 OPS and .488 wOBA to lefty bats on the road, a split where he's also pitched to a 2.0 HR/9. Rocker has also given up a .400 average to Raleigh in a small sample of seven plate appearances, while 15 of the 25 hits Raleigh has against right-handed pitching at home have gone for extra bases.
The fantasy score prop is also a very feasible one for Raleigh given his power, and he's eclipsed that figure in three of his last five games alone.
