This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: August 4th Best Bets & Predictions
We're heading into our first full week of August, and that means we're into the final two months of the regular season. Some of the battles we have set for Monday night could be potential playoff previews, including the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers doing battle in Southern California. Those teams meet at 10:10 p.m. ET. We'll take a look at a solid same-game parlay and prop possibilities. Let's get started.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Props
The Cardinals (56-57) and the Dodgers (65-47) meet at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles for the start of a three-game series on Monday night.
Back in early June, the Cardinals topped the Dodgers twice in a three-game series at Busch Stadium. Two of the three meetings ended up going Under, including the 5-0 series opener win on June 6.
In that series opener, Cardinals RHP Sonny Gray (10-5, 4.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) got the start, and he scattered eight hits with no walks and five strikeouts across eight scoreless innings in the victory, moving to 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA at the time. His ERA has slowly crept up in the nine starts since, as he has had difficulty keeping the ball inside the yard.
Gray was pelted for nine runs - eight earned - and 11 hits in just 3.1 IP in a 10-1 road loss against the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 19. That was his most recent road outing, and it was a disaster. He has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his past four road assignments, too, sandwiching a complete-game, one-hit shutout in Cleveland against the Guardians on June 27.
The thing with Gray is that, even when he is getting hit hard, he consistently racks up strikeouts. In fact, he has exactly five strikeouts in each of his past four starts, and he has five or more punchouts in eight straight outings. He has four or more strikeouts in all 22 starts this season, too.
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The Dodgers are a pretty free-swinging team, striking out 949 times across 112 games, which is an average of 8.47 per game. L.A. ranks 12th in the majors in strikeouts (hitting). The Over/Under on Gray for strikeouts is 5.5, so we'll go high on his total.
As far as the total for this game, the Under has cashed in four of the previous five meetings dating back to Aug. 17, 2024, including two of the three games in June.
Los Angeles is coming off a series win in Tampa against the Rays which saw the winning team post a shutout in all three outings. The Dodgers took two of three in the series. In fact, the Under is on an impressive 9-0-1 run for Los Angeles. At home, the Under was 2-1 in the most recent series against the Minnesota Twins July 21-23, and the Under has a slight 7-5 edge in the past 12 at home.
The Cardinals have slipped to a game under .500, but they're still very much in the mix for a wild-card spot, just 6.5 games back. They need to get going soon, however.
For St. Louis, the Under is 3-2 in the past five games, while going 8-4-2 in the past 14 outings. That includes Gray's last start, which came in a stunning 5-0 loss at home. The Cardinals offense has struggled to plate runs lately, going for three or fewer runs in four of the past five games, and seven of the previous nine outings.
Los Angeles sends RHP Tyler Glasnow (1-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) to the hill for his 10th start of the season. While his numbers certainly suggest the Under, too, the feeling is even more so when you factor in that he has a 2.16 ERA in five home outings, with teams hitting just .159 against him across 25 IP with a 0.84 WHIP.
Go Under, and go rather aggressively on that. However, as good as Glasnow has been, there is just no value taking Los Angeles straight up, as it will cost you almost twice as much as your potential return. Let's get a little insurance, and take the Cardinals on the run line, as it isn't priced out of line.
MLB Best Bets
- Cardinals +1.5 (-125 at BetMGM)
- Under 8 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
- Sonny Gray - Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-111 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
