This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: September 18th Best Bets & Predictions
Can this be the penultimate Thursday in the MLB season already? Let's try to end on a high note!
Season record 30-33-1, -5.3 units
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Yankees at Orioles
We've got two very different lefties on the mound tonight. Max Fried gets the ball for the Yankees and save for the 3 start blip in early August, he has been fantastic in Pinstripes. Fried is 17-5 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 30 starts and 180.1 innings. As always he's thrived not by the strikeout, though his 22.6% K% and 25.5% Whiff% are each above average. Rather its his ability to keep the. ball on the ground and mitigate dangerous contact, skills his maintained throughout his career. His 52.7% GB% is 89th percentile, and his 87.3 EV allowed is 90th percentile.
Cade Povich for the Orioles has some prospect pedigree, but it has not translated to great results just yet. What he does do pretty well though is strike guys out, especially lately. He has 41 K's in 37 IP and a 26.3% K% since returning from the IL on August 4th. He also has a 4.86 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over that span and a 90.8 EV allowed.
I like these two pitchers to get to their combined K prop. Fried makes up for his underwhelming K rate with volume as he has 169 strikeouts in his 30 starts, or just under 6 per outing. Plus they each face a team that is prone to the whiff vs. southpaws. Since August 1st, the Orioles rank 4th in MLB with a 25.4% K% vs. lefties, while the Yankees rank 7th at 24.7%.
MLB Best Bet
- Cade Povich & Max Fried - 12+ Combined Strikeouts Thrown (-104 DraftKings)
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Angels at Brewers
The Angels send lefty Yusei Kikuchi, their nominal ace, to do battle with the Brewers. I do not expect it to go well as the Crew poses a tough test for everyone, and Kikuchi has struggled mightily down the stretch. In 7 starts back to August 9th he has a 7.89 ERA and 1.66 WHIP with just a 17.6% K%. He did pitch well in his last outing, 1 ER in 6 IP in Seattle, so there's that.
The Brewers hit well in pretty much every situation, but they're particularly dangerous in a matchup like this. They have a 150 wRC+ at home vs. lefties since the All-Star break.
I'm going to attack this game with a couple of their hotter hitters. Jackson Chourio returned from the IL on August 30th, and his hit .288 in his 15 games since then with 3 homers, 11 runs and 9 RBI's. William Contreras meanwhile played through injuries early in the season, but is on a two-month heater at this point. Since the All-Star break, King William has hit .298 with 11 homers and a .377 wOBA. For his career he's torched lefties for a .307 AVG and 150 wRC+. I like these two to have big games tonight.
MLB Best Bet
- William Contreras 3+ Hits+Runs+ RBI's (+135 DraftKings)
- Jackson Chourio 3+ Hits+Runs+ RBI's (+143 DraftKings)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Cade Povich & Max Fried - 12+ Combined Strikeouts Thrown (-104 DraftKings)
- William Contreras 3+ Hits+Runs+ RBI's (+135 DraftKings)
- Jackson Chourio 3+ Hits+Runs+ RBI's (+143 DraftKings)
