MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Player Props for October 16

MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Player Props for October 16

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

Thursday's action has two games on the agenda. The Dodgers return home after stealing both games from the Brewers in Milwaukee and are in full control of the NLCS, but first, the Blue Jays will aim to even the series against the Mariners in Seattle after a strong showing in Game 3 on Wednesday.

Here are our three best player props for Thursday's action.

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Best MLB Bets Thursday

Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Randy Arozarena to record 1+ hits (-140 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

On paper, Arozarena's numbers don't stand out, since he's hitting .176 through eight postseason contests. However, he's hit safely in five of those contests, including the last two, and he went yard in the Game 3 loss Wednesday. The fact that his on-base percentage is more than .120 points higher than his average suggests he's seeing the ball well, and he might be able to snap out of his funk in Game 4, where the Mariners will aim to avoid a series tie after losing Game 3 at home. 

It'd be wise to look past Arozarena's batting average here, as he's a good bet to record a hit. He's hitless in two plate appearances against Blue Jays RHP Max Scherzer, though. However, that's too small of a sample size, so we can't glean much from that.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Tyler Glasnow Under 1.5 earned runs (-105 at BetMGM)

The Brewers have hit .088 against the Dodgers in the first two games of the series, as they couldn't inflict almost any damage to either LHP Blake Snell or RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. However, their offense is simply too talented to continue struggling at this rate, and their bats need to wake up against Glasnow. 

It's uncertain if they'll be able to do so, though. Glasnow has been excellent in the playoffs, holding opponents to a .154 batting average across 7.2 scoreless innings in two appearances. He also had success against the Brewers in the regular season, limiting Milwaukee to two runs (one earned) over 11 innings across two starts. Good pitching can be contagious, and the Dodgers will hope the dominant efforts of Snell and Yamamoto will carry over to Game 3, putting L.A. on the brink of returning to the World Series.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Freeman has hit safely in six of eight games in the postseason thus far, and he is coming off a 1-for-5 effort with a double in Game 2 of the NLCS. 

Having racked up multiple bases in four of the six games in which he's hit safely, the veteran first baseman could be in line for another productive outing against the Brewers in Game 3. Freeman hit .287 with 32 extra-base hits (23 doubles, nine homers) at home in the regular season, posting a .837 OPS. Although he's only hit .188 at home in the postseason, that's too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions. Look for the veteran first baseman to set the tone on offense for the Dodgers as they look to move closer to another World Series berth.

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MLB Picks Recap

  • Mariners vs. Blue Jays: Randy Arozarena to record 1+ hits (-140 at FanDuel)
  • Brewers vs. Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow Under 1.5 earned runs (-105 at BetMGM)
  • Brewers vs. Dodgers: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+125 @ Caesars)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Pablo Aravena
35-year-old sports analyst and journalist. Fan of every single sport on this earth, but mainly NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL and soccer. Eternal optimistic who, for unknown reasons, chose to root for the Chicago Cubs and Jacksonville Jaguars. Born and raised in Chile.
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