This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for August 14: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 0-3 ( -3.00 units)
Season 107-113-2 (-8.55 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Thursday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Home Favorites - Mets -190 vs Braves
Road Favorites - Tigers -210 at Twins, Phillies -205 at Nationals
Totals - Diamondbacks/Rockies 12.0-12.5, Tigers/Twins 7.5, Marlins/Guardians 7.5
Line Movement - Braves -17
Bullpen Rankings as of 8.14.25 (xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Rays, Padres, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Mets, White Sox, Angels, Pirates). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Rockies, Twins, Nationals, Orioles, Braves, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Astros, Royals, Red Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Insights
Isolating a matchup is part of baseball handicapping that is overlooked, and you can take advantage of this with a mispriced line. Why is the total in this game 7.5 runs? Guardians RHP Tanner Bibee has not been a good pitcher this year, but his home numbers have been significantly better than on the road. I am looking at his most recent data in which the OVER is 6-1 in Bibee's last 7 starts.
The perceived reputations of both teams is that they are all pitching and no offense, but the numbers state otherwise.
MLB Best Bets: Marlins OVER 1.5 runs F5 - 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Best Bets and Predictions
It is never easy to swallow taking OVER 12.0 runs in a baseball game, but this is one of them. We have two bad starting pitchers, friendly weather, and the best hitting environment in baseball. There are also recent trends towards the OVER between both teams (21, 14, 16, 14, 13, 33 total runs in last six Rockies home games).
Rockies RHP Bradley Blalock has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the last season and a half with a 7.20 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. With the exception of the July 28th start in Cleveland, his season numbers are 9.16 ERA and 1.82 WHIP, but even worse at home with a 11.76 ERA and 2.18 WHIP. Diamondbacks LHP Eduardo Rodriguez has a 6.97 ERA and 1.97 WHIP over his last six starts.
Anything can happen in baseball, and this could end up being a 2-1 game after five innings, but both pitchers have been so bad that you have to play the percentages.
TRENDS
- The total has gone OVER in four of Arizona's last five games.
- The total has gone OVER in nine of Colorado's last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Colorado's last six games at home.
MLB Best Bets: OVER 12.0 runs - 1 unit (BetRivers -105)
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Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Best Bets and Predictions
Neither one of these teams is playing well, and the Braves have nothing to play for, so I look towards the OVER in a game like this. The series has played high scoring this season (4-1 to the OVER last five), and neither Braves RHP Bryce Elder or Mets RHP Kodai Senga has performed very well. The first two games of this series have seen 17 and 18 runs.
Edler has a 8.86 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in his last nine starts. In his last four outings, Senga has a 6.61 ERA and 1.78 WHIP.
MLB Best Bets: OVER 8.5 runs - 1 unit (FanDuel -118)
MLB Picks Thursday Recap
- Marlins OVER 1.5 runs F5 - 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
- Diamondbacks/Rockies OVER 12.0 runs - 1 unit (BetRivers -105)
- Braves/Mets OVER 8.5 runs - 1 unit (FanDuel -118)
