We continue our fantasy baseball breakouts and busts series with the first of two articles on starting pitchers. As a reminder, here's how we're defining "breakouts" and "busts" for the purpose of this series:
Breakout: a player being drafted between picks 50 and 150 who could significantly outperform his draft price.
Bust: a player being drafted in the first 150 picks who's at risk of significantly underperforming his draft price.
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Breakouts
Bradish, after a year-plus-long recovery from Tommy John surgery (which included an internal brace), returned to action for the Orioles last August. He came back with a bang, posting a 2.53 ERA (2.45 FIP) and 47:10 K:BB over 32 innings covering six starts. If you dial back to the start of the 2023 season, Bradish has gone 15-8 with a 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 268:69 K:BB over 240 innings.
The key questions coming into 2026 are whether can Bradish stay healthy and what his innings restriction will be. The first question is hard to answer, as Bradish has thrown just 71.1 innings in the majors the last two seasons along with 33.1 in the minors. That lack of overall action likely should result in Bradish having some kind of innings cap, probably in the 135-140 range.
Bradish projects as the Orioles No. 2 starter. He has the stuff to ably fill that spot, but the innings limit will impact his fantasy value. Despite this, Bradish has a good opportunity to exceed
We continue our fantasy baseball breakouts and busts series with the first of two articles on starting pitchers. As a reminder, here's how we're defining "breakouts" and "busts" for the purpose of this series:
Breakout: a player being drafted between picks 50 and 150 who could significantly outperform his draft price.
Bust: a player being drafted in the first 150 picks who's at risk of significantly underperforming his draft price.
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Breakouts
Bradish, after a year-plus-long recovery from Tommy John surgery (which included an internal brace), returned to action for the Orioles last August. He came back with a bang, posting a 2.53 ERA (2.45 FIP) and 47:10 K:BB over 32 innings covering six starts. If you dial back to the start of the 2023 season, Bradish has gone 15-8 with a 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 268:69 K:BB over 240 innings.
The key questions coming into 2026 are whether can Bradish stay healthy and what his innings restriction will be. The first question is hard to answer, as Bradish has thrown just 71.1 innings in the majors the last two seasons along with 33.1 in the minors. That lack of overall action likely should result in Bradish having some kind of innings cap, probably in the 135-140 range.
Bradish projects as the Orioles No. 2 starter. He has the stuff to ably fill that spot, but the innings limit will impact his fantasy value. Despite this, Bradish has a good opportunity to exceed his draft position, especially seeing how rare it is to see starters making 30 starts or going more than 175 innings. As such, if Bradish can go 140 innings, he should provide plenty of value compared to his draft position.
In what was a nightmarish 2025 season for the Mets, Nolan McLean ended up being one of the few bright spots. McLean, drafted in the third round of the 2023 draft, was selected as a two-way player. He ditched hitting to focus on pitching, which so far has looked like the right decision, as his game has soared since then.
McLean dominated in five starts at Double-A Binghamton and 16 appearances at Triple-A Syracuse, earning an August promotion. He continued that success in the majors, notching a 2.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 57:16 K:BB and 61.1 percent groundball rate in 48 innings (eight starts). The Mets acquired Freddy Peralta to serve as their No. 1 starter, but McLean has the talent to fill that role in the future, though he's slated to begin the season as the team's second starter.
As we noted in our pre-season outlook, The 24-year-old righty throws six distinct offerings, sitting in the mid-90s with his two fastballs and averaging at least 80 mph on all six pitches, including his 70- to 80-grade curveball, which may already be one of the best pitches in the game. McLean should have no innings limits, and in his second full season of starting, he should only continue to get better. If that happens, he could post ace-like numbers.
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Busts
Calling Ryan a bust is perhaps not the most accurate term. But past injury history coupled with his back inflammation this spring and the team around him makes his draft position a bit risky. Per the definition of a Bust for purposes of this column, Ryan certainly qualifies.
Ryan had the best season of his career in 2025 as he avoided the injury issues that had derailed the second halves of his prior two years. He posted career bests with a 3.44 ERA, 125 ERA+ and 171 innings. Ryan is the unquestioned ace of the Twins, but rumors persisted last season that Minnesota might deal him, though they have done their best to toss cold water on that idea.
The back inflammation hopefully won't sideline him long. Of greater concern is the team surrounding him in Minnesota. At first, second and third glance, your reaction should be, "Where is the offense?" Between the mild concern over Ryan's back and a decent likelihood that wins will be limited, there's reason to worry that Ryan could be a bust this season, even though his advanced metrics should be solid.
By the time you read this column, Snell's inclusion here may be obsolete. RotoWire moved him down in our rankings several times already (when column was written, he had slid to 138) and my presumption is his NFBC ADP will continue to fall. Los Angeles likely cares little about this, because if Snell is dominant in the stretch run and playoffs, as he was last year, they can withstand his absence.
Your fantasy team, however, may not have the same luxury. Snell signed a five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers prior to last season. A bout of shoulder inflammation put Snell on the injured list two starts into the 2025 season, costing him four months. The left-hander returned to go 4-4 with a 2.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 68:18 K:BB over 52.1 innings spanning nine starts down the stretch of the regular season before adding three wins with a 3.18 ERA and 41 more strikeouts over 34 postseason innings.
Snell, a two-time Cy Young winner, has often missed time due to injury throughout his career, only twice reaching 30 starts. We would love to say this season will be different, but Snell has yet to take part in any mound work in spring training and no timetable exists for him to do so. In addition, he stated publicly that he was exhausted following the conclusion of the 2025 campaign and will not be ready for Opening Day. Combine all these facts and Snell is more than a risky bet.
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